Why is wales having such a terrible time?

[balzamico]

Despite their firebreak which was preceded by local lockdowns, their rates of infection seem to be climbing very steeply still. More so than the other nations and show no sign yet of slowing down - does anyone know why this is please?
Us their compliance low? I don't tend to think of Wales as a country with a high density population although I guess Swansea and Cardiff may be

When we went into the firebreak our rates per 100,000 were the lowest of all the 4 UK nations. So it's because our government is more cautious than the severity of the infection here, I believe.

We wouldn't expect to see a drop due to it yet due to the time lag of any intervention.

As Mark Drakeford explained when we locked down, it will be at least two weeks after the end of it (9th November) before we know what the effect has been. What we are seeing now is the result of people contracting COVID before or just at the start of the lockdown as there is a time lag due to incubation periods and of course a time lag between getting ill and becoming ill enough to go to hospital.

I can only speak for my part of Wales, but compliance seems high at the moment.

I would be more worried about England tbh! Over half a million had covid last week.

We knew we would still see an increase by the end of lockdown. We were told that at the beginning. It's hoping we will see the difference a few weeks down the road. I suspect our NHS is less able to cope than England's, least from my own, friends and families experiences here.

There is definitely some non compliance issues, there has been all the way through but not sure if that applies everywhere or not.

We didn't have marks introduced until much later, when the children were back at school.

A lot of our major breakdowns happened in hospitals, my nana died earlier today and would be classed as a Covid death although it seems bonkers really given she was in her 90s.

People from Wales will be along soon to have a go at you and say "Don't worry about us ! Look at all the cases in England." etc.

People seem to think that any sort of rule applied will immediately see a result. There is always about a month lag so anything that happens won’t be seen in the figures h til weeks later. The new cases being reported now are cases that were caught 1-2 weeks ago before lockdown. Deaths are from cases caught over a month ago.
So the fact that cases have. Onginied to rise shows it was prudent to go into the firebreak in order to hopefully stop them rising in the next few weeks.

So sorry @Someonesayroadtrip

OP, as PP are saying, there is a delay between the lockdown and the effects, 2-3 weeks. We are not there yet.
Current infection rates will correspond to 2-3 weeks prior. So of course we will not see a reduction in cases yet.

It is a good experiment to do, for all of us indeed. If it slows the spread enough, England may have some later on
I think they had mentioned small breaks tactics at the beginning of this, around April?
Anyway, it is nowhere as tight as the first lockdown. All trades and business that cannot work from home are still open. The only ones closed are pubs/ restaurants, non- essential shops.
Take aways are open.
We now can buy non-essentials in case of need (thanks god for that!)

I forgot to mention!! schools are closed for one week(half term). Then go back for the second week till year 8. Year 9 and above have distance learning for the second week

So there will be data with close and open schools

@Versace104

People from Wales will be along soon to have a go at you and say "Don't worry about us ! Look at all the cases in England." etc.

Look at the 'what are Wales doing' thread, it's every other post.

@pinkearedcow fair point though. Fine if you want to ask why the rate is still going up (and that question has been answered). Just don't at us if you live in england!

I don't think we're doing badly are we? We just have a lower threshold for taking action.

Goodness knows what's going on in Merthyr though, Drakeford said they're at over 600 cases per 100000 this week?? They were 300 last time I looked. Almost as bad as England's hotspots!

Whenever Wales isn't locked down there's a relentless tidal wave of visitors so there's bound to be high case numbers. Until recently people from other parts of the UK in very high risk areas that were subject to local restrictions could come to Wales to escape their restrictions don't forget. These are clearly not the only reasons for the figures but it's got to have contributed to some extent

@Spam88 That bad?? That is worrying.

If Johnson decides to lockdown, can he force a UK wide lockdown - or can we (Wales) say no?

I'm pretty sure we'd have to go along with it, as it would be legally enforceable and policing isn't devolved.

Oh that is a good question!
I really think they will go for "local" lockdowns from now onwards.
I mean certain parts of UK at a time.
Though in my head, I still think it will work better if we all do it together. And avoid travelling around.

It would be a nightmare if we go from Welsh lockdown straight to UK lockdown.

Public health is a devolved matter, so lockdowns can only be legislated for by the devolved parliaments. That's not to say that Westminster wouldn't try a power grab.

We talking south or north Wales? The edge of nwales kind of slides into the nw of England, with many people living and working in both. Rates are probably more in line with the nw.

Because Wales has lots of universities? Because of schools have reopened, Because South Wales is densely populated? Because Covid is a fuckwit virus that spreads any which way it can?
All the above?
Dunno but I think they are tackling it better than England.
Can we stop with the compliance blame game? Many people are being sensible and taking precautions but you can't stop an invisible enemy, and you can't stop living.

Wales isnt doing any worse than england as far as I can see. There are some areas of south wales where infection is very high but south wales is highly populated with people travelling around for work quite a lot. I live in north wales and I wouldnt say our cases are any higher than just across the border.
How successful the lockdown has been will not be seen for 2 weeks or so I imagine.
In regards to compliance the cast majority if people have been complying. My dh work was open this week but they have decided to close next week as they are not getting the customers in so it's not worth the running costs (it's a car garage) so many people are abiding by the lockdown rules at least now.

@pinkearedcow

If Johnson decides to lockdown, can he force a UK wide lockdown - or can we (Wales) say no?

Got a friend in Welsh politics, had a chat with her last night for an update (gossip) and she said exactly that. Feeling rather deflated today.

I didn't realise we were having such a terrible time? Rates have been going down in my county. Yes they are going up in Merthyr but you can hardly extrapolate that to the whole country.

Other than that it's too early to say if the fire break has had a positive effect or not - like others have pointed out.