'Eat out to help out' a key driver of the second wave - study finds

[annabel85]

Coronavirus: Revealed - the impact Eat Out to Help Out had on infection rates
Research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected infection clusters can be linked to the scheme.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eat-out-to-help-out-accelerated-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285

I know they were trying to get the economy going again, but what a ridiculous initiative this proved to be? I know people in hospitality who said it was bedlam on the days of discounted food, so it's no surprise.

It was a short-sighted idea. If you ask people in that sector: “what would you prefer, EOTHO in August or not having to close in Nov-Dec?” I guarantee they would’ve preferred the latter. Sadly, closures and takeout only are probably inevitable within a few weeks. And some businesses don’t survive that.

It’s pointless to support businesses in an unsustainable way, especially when they’re are relatively risky settings to begin with.

Of course some places were well managed and spaced apart. Others were absolutely heaving inside.

Also the most virulent strain of covid currently in the U.K. is from Spain. So cheers anyone that went on holiday.

"key" ? The study says "8-17%" of the increase was down to EO2HO. I mean... 8%? Really, we should worry about 8%? What was the 83%???

So they had the same scheme in France and Germany did they

It's rising everywhere

Except the rates didn’t actually start to go up until schools and universities went back?

@bigchris

So they had the same scheme in France and Germany did they

All countries are different in the levels of restrictions that they had, and so different phenomena contributed to the rise in cases. In places like France and Spain, they had strict mask wearing rules for instance but very lax guidance on private social gatherings (weddings of 150+ permitted). So you cant generalise.

I know people in hospitality who said it was bedlam on the days of discounted food
It wasn't meant to be though, was it? The same rules were meant to be followed throughout the week, social distancing, taking customer's details, etc etc.

@12in21

Except the rates didn’t actually start to go up until schools and universities went back?

That’s not true. The largest one-day rise in cases for months came on the 6th September: schools had barely been back then, and universities not at all.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cases-uk-total-new-today-latest-update-b404985.html

It was a huge shock when that figure off 3000 cases was announced then. Almost certainly due to August travel and hospitality.

Of course schools and universities have accelerated the growth, but make no mistake, it was already underway by the time they opened.

Twitter thread summary by the author (with a link to the study):
mobile.twitter.com/fetzert/status/1322078576133525504

^"The paper documents that the scheme had a substantial and causal impact leading to new spatially spread out COVID19 infections in the weeks during which the scheme was active. The estimates suggest that the scheme is responsible for around 8-17%
of all infections during the summer months and likely, many more non-detected
asymptomatic infections, that may have substantially contributed to accelerating
the second wave of the pandemic."^

@TeddyIsaHe

Also the most virulent strain of covid currently in the U.K. is from Spain. So cheers anyone that went on holiday.

IKR!? I was shocked at the time that people were blithely going- not specifically Spain but overseas in general. There was no sense of, ‘well technically you can, but is it wise?’

Colour me surprised!

I came to the conclusion some time ago that the bunch of clowns in government couldn't run a sodding bath, let alone a country.

Of course some places were well managed and spaced apart. Others were absolutely heaving inside.

It's also the message it sends out. It's basically 'It's all over, get out there and mingle'.

No one is surprised ... hate that we'll be paying off the dining out bills for people who could already afford to eat out for many years, knowing the scheme probably ended up killing people and businesses, too. Short term gain, long term pain.

Also the most virulent strain of covid currently in the U.K. is from Spain. So cheers anyone that went on holiday.

And how many bothered to quarantine when they came back? Like the lovely chap who came home from Spain with Covid and went off on a pub crawl that sent his town into lockdown. Could people not have one summer without going abroad, in the middle of a pandemic?

Half of the reasoning seemed to be to get people “back out“ of the house as much as to help local business.
I don’t think a lowish stainable rate was considered a bad thing in return for an economy that was ticking over.

Interesting that schools aren’t closing anywhere anymore despite being on full lockdown. Consensus is now to keep things going as far as possible.

@marveloustimeruiningeverything

No one is surprised ... hate that we'll be paying off the dining out bills for people who could already afford to eat out for many years, knowing the scheme probably ended up killing people and businesses, too. Short term gain, long term pain.

It was a desperate bid to artificially boost growth figures for the third quarter. It barely made a ripple but it'll help further cripple the figures for the last quarter and into next year.

crikey who could have foreseen that? Go to the Med, pick up a virus, come back and spread it around through eat out etc with Bozo shouting everyone back to school and work.

"Job postings data sheds some additional light on how temporary any positive impact on jobs has been."
mobile.twitter.com/PawelAdrjan/status/1322130866320134151

My response to the title of this thread is 'no shit Sherlock'

It would possibly have been OK if it had included takeaways, especially in fast food chains where this is normal practice.

@tootiredtothinkofanewname

Why did they spend money researching this??? My primary aged DC said this when the scheme was announced!

Yeah, it didn't exactly require much more than the common sense of a 5yo did it!