Local trust has 160 Covid patients, 12 in ICU. The issue will be A&E bottlenecking as beds fill up (the one in one out situation so common in winter) and ICU capacity as numbers increase. They have 28 ICU beds, but generated 4 X this capacity in late March/April.
They cannot do this this time if they want to keep cancelled surgery going to clear the backlog, although the reality in winter for many trusts is that all but urgent surgery is cancelled and often urgent (not emergency) surgery is also cancelled. Also paediatric HDU/ICU's will be busier at this time of year so extra ventilators, beds and nurses used from these areas won't be available.
This time there are not extra doctors and nurses from GP settings, medical students, final year student nurses and community nurses to help manage staffing. Staff are having to isolate due to outbreaks in wards and also due to children developing symptoms in their households which was reduced before as schools were closed and also children tend to have respiratory viruses more often at this time of year anyway.
It is not so simple as we have the beds, they also need to specialist staff to make sure patients are safe. This has been a problem coming for a while due to experienced staff retiring, difficulty getting new staff into training, shortage of nurses and doctors, increasing age of population and increasing need for these services.
Regional workforce reports for intensive care www.ficm.ac.uk/local-engagements/reports
www.cc3n.org.uk/uploads/9/8/4/2/98425184/national_critical_care_nursing_and_outreach_workforce_survey_report_2018_final.pdf. National CC nursing workforce survey showing 8% vacancy rate in 2017.