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Original poster

R rate reported to be above 2 in the South and Brighton and Hove looking at tier 2

26 replies

RishiMcRichface · 29/10/2020 07:47

Anyone else in the South? Looks like rates are rising here now. Could this lead to a national lockdown or maybe a lot more tier 2. Our rates per 100,000 are still quite low but the R being above 2 is quite significant I think.

OP posts:
OP posts:
UpperLowercaseSymbolNumber · 29/10/2020 07:50

What is the source of R being above 2? This is not in line with the government or Zoe.

scaevola · 29/10/2020 07:55

The source is given in the article - the REACT-1 study

you might prefer this version

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/

And yes, the it's >R2 in areas of the south, though the national figure is lower (averaged) and there are areas where it remains considerably lower

Original poster
RishiMcRichface · 29/10/2020 07:57

I think it's based on a study from Imperial College London.

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WhiteChocTwix · 29/10/2020 07:57

The source is the React Study by Imperial according to BBC news. SE here, worrying to hear numbers are going up Sad

Chickenandrice · 29/10/2020 07:57

I was just reading in the daily mail that a study has suggested the r in London is 3. And one in 75 peopleIn England are contagious

Camomila · 29/10/2020 08:05

Oh dear (I'm im Brighton)

At least there is the grandparent childcare exception now. Nursery doesn't have places all the days I work/ DS1 would regularly cry for nonna in lockdown.

Redolent · 29/10/2020 08:14

The only positive in that study is that infections aren’t yet increasing in the over 80s. But the rest of it makes for a very sobering reading…

Original poster
RishiMcRichface · 29/10/2020 08:14

I have heard of a few cases locally, whereas hadn't heard of any up till now so that seems like a change. A local pub shut down after a staff member was self isolating which hadn't happened before. So that is just my anecdotal data from a smallish village.

OP posts:
JamesAnderson · 29/10/2020 08:15

It's suggested the r is 2 in the East but there's been two meat factory outbreaks in recent weeks. One of the factories tests random staff each week and found a few asymptomatic positives so has now tested all staff. They say all the positives have no symptoms.

Both outbreaks have been contained well so far.

On the other hand there's a local housing estate with a fair amount of inter household spread but with much lower numbers than the meat factories. It's this that I would find more worrying I think

The point I'm trying to make is an r number on its own doesn't always give the full picture.

Camomila · 29/10/2020 08:17

The Argus (local paper) says we might go into 'Tier 1+' - basically covid marshalls making sure the students/youth social distance in town and targetted testing. I think it makes sense as we have 2 universities in one bit of the city. The rest of the city has ok rates (lots of people wfh).

iVampire · 29/10/2020 08:20

The Imperial study is based on randomised age/sex, not number of cases, so localised outbreaks will not be a confounder in their regional findings

One worrying feature is that most increases have to date in this wave been in those under 55.

It is now spilling upwards into the 55-64 age bracket. Hospitals are filling up already, even now when it’s barely reached the more vulnerable groups

That is concerning

walksen · 29/10/2020 08:27

Cue comments

"Why would we need a national lockdown when numbers in the ne are falling".

In all seriousness, it doesn't appear this is on the cards and we can only hope that the tier system can bring down below 1. In that sense the ne figures are encouraging.

On the other hand it took months to get deaths down last time and with schools open this time the figures may take much longer to drop. The NHS may be very stretched for months. It's not even winter yetSad

whatswithtodaytoday · 29/10/2020 08:35

I think we'll have to have one in November, surely? It seems like there news is preparing us for the possibility now (being used as a government mouthpiece).

I do worry that if schools are left open it won't do much good though - people will still mix because their kids are at school together.

WhiteChocTwix · 29/10/2020 08:42

@whatswithtodaytoday agree with you 100%. Also the govt ought to clamp down on ppl not being allowed to WFH if it's feasible because managers want bums on seats. Still such a culture of presentism in so many offices.

WhenSheWasBad · 29/10/2020 09:38

@whatswithtodaytoday agree with you 100%. Also the govt ought to clamp down on ppl not being allowed to WFH if it's feasible because managers want bums on seats. Still such a culture of presentism in so many offices

I’m really shocked so many managers want everyone in offices. My husbands company have saved millions by having staff WFH, if anything productivity has improved.

notevenat20 · 29/10/2020 09:43

You have to be careful how you interpret. Look at the full table pbs.twimg.com/media/ElehB2nW0AATi6v?format=jpg&name=900x900

Rounds 5 and 6 look more reliable where R is closer to 1.

walksen · 29/10/2020 10:07

"Rounds 5 and 6 look more reliable where R is closer to 1"

What is it about the numbers on that table that tells you that round 6 is less reliable. I can't find reference to the number of data points etc so is it just that the figures for 6 only looks large compared to other regions?

notevenat20 · 29/10/2020 10:48

What is it about the numbers on that table that tells you that round 6 is less reliable. I can't find reference to the number of data points etc so is it just that the figures for 6 only looks large compared to other regions?

It's just the quantity of data. The confidence ranges are really big. See 0.07 to 1.63 for the North East for example.

DirtyBlonde · 29/10/2020 10:54

Round 5&6 combined having wide range intervals will be because of the difference in number of individual results in round 6 at this point.

So either they have more to process in round 6, or there was indeed a very low return rate for this round and better comparisons will be made when round 7 is carried out.

littlestpogo · 29/10/2020 10:58

@DirtyBlondeThey have said these are the interim results with more being processed

janetmendoza · 29/10/2020 11:07

Portsmouth also headed towards tier2 it seems

MrsWarleggan · 29/10/2020 11:21

I'm not surprised. Brighton people... Anyone been down Lewes Road/Churchill Sq recently? As a Brighton resident I'm extremely concerned. I used to shop down Aldis in Lewes Road. Last time I went down end of September and it scared the bejesus out of me. North Street at closing time is heaving with people trying to get in to off licences. I despair. 🤦‍♀️

Camomila · 29/10/2020 14:26

DM shops at Aldis in Lewes Road - she says its ok (she shops weekday mornings).
I went to North Street at the beginning of September - again ok on a weekday in the daytime.
I've not been anywhere at the weekend/evening though, and DH does our supermarket shops either late in the evening or early Saturday mornings.

doireallyneedaname · 29/10/2020 14:29

Not surprised. Brighton people are a complete joke. I’ve recently found out that Brighton is very anti vax so I’m sure there’s a tonne of conspiracy theorists here who don’t even believe Covid exists. Everywhere is SO busy., you’d never know we were in the middle of a pandemic.