Reducing contact isolation from 14 to 7 days

[Lemons1571]

It’s in the headlines this morning, ministers are considering a reduction in the 14 day isolation period to 7 or 10 days.

I think it’s a reasonable move given the low compliance stats. Not the optimum solution from a medical or scientific perspective. But if the vast majority of people show symptoms within 7 days then surely it would cover most cases. I believe France have done the same thing due to low compliance. It is also less daunting and more achievable for the majority, with lesser loss of income, mental health considerations, education missed.

My only concern is t&t taking so long to contact people, that the 7 days would be up before they manage to get themselves into gear.

I think that people will always be tempted to shave a day or few off the set time.

IIRC, the typical range of the incubation period is 2-14 days, with most cases showing up in 5-7 days. So I think 7 days is a bit too short, but 10 might work (because even if people were not fully compliant with the last 1-2 days, it's still past the peak, but 7 days minus one or two wouldn't be).

Also, it would be simpler, as it would be 10 days for any type of isolation (at the moment it's 10 days if symptomatic, 14 days for contacts and travel quarantine).

I just don't believe that people will become more compliant with a different limit, and so a kind of safety margin seems prudent.

Yes I think its a move in the right direction. 2 weeks is a long time especially for children

Is be a bit worried about the time lag. My husband is isolating after contact with a confirmed case. The app has pinged him but we’ve not heard from test and trace and the contact was at the start of this week. I wouldnt be surprised if he hits 7 days with no contact. I would have liked more guidance on what the rest of the household can or can’t do. Technically we don’t need to isolate but I was supposed to be visiting my elderly parents and have cancelled that as it feels like too great a risk.

Great idea!

The average incubation period is 4-5 days.

People are much more likely to comply with 7 days!

I hope so! My youngest is on their second lot of 14days SI.

Reducing to 10 days would mean they could spend some of the half term outside.

Reducing to 7 days would mean they could spend most of the half term outside.

It’s about time IMO but test results and contact tracing needs to be quicker too. At the moment contacts are still unaware whilst they’re most likely to develop symptoms and only asked to isolate once the chances are slim. I agree with the pp suggesting the same time for contacts as the positive result would be easiest.

7 days makes more sense. More doable for more people.

I think it’s a great idea-if the government want the cases in the country to rocket even higher.

Much as I would love isolation to be reduced to 7 days having just spent 14 days in isolation as a close contact I think it would be pointless and we might as well not isolate at all. It took 3 days for test and trace to contact me and one of my colleagues who was also self isolating as a close contact developed symptoms and tested positive 10 days into isolating. The colleague who initially tested positive and was our close contact had been on a flight 10 days prior to developing symptoms, obviously there is no way of knowing if that is where they contracted the virus but they said they hadn't been anywhere since the flight and were still getting shopping delivered etc so no busy shops or restaurants etc.
So that's potentially 2 people I know who developed symptoms 10 days after exposure.

This is a stupid idea. You increase compliance by increasing enforcement, not by changing the rules so that they are easier to comply with and less effective.

So cases are rising and we take this decision. It makes no sense.
If it’s 7 days people will probably do 4/5 days or so and be out and about at their most symptomatic.
Track and trace probably won’t have even contacted you in that time.

@Splodgetastic

This is a stupid idea. You increase compliance by increasing enforcement, not by changing the rules so that they are easier to comply with and less effective.

I don't think it's stupid at all, if the statistics show that 95% of cases shows by 10 days and compliance with that is likely to be 20% higher that it is now it's a sensible idea

I've made those numbers up btw but I'm sure scientists know the actual ones.

I think it has to be done. DD’s year was recently sent home for 14 days. From the class whatsapp group it was clear no one was going to follow the rules for that long. The French worked this out a while ago.

Lets not kid ourselves that this isn't about getting people back to work and less financial help being needed. The reduction will also apply to people coming in on flights.

Those that won't comply with 14 days (and I know a lot that hasn't) won't comply with 10 days, either. It must be a further worry for teachers who are more vulnerable, if not all workers.

@Ponoka7

Lets not kid ourselves that this isn't about getting people back to work and less financial help being needed. The reduction will also apply to people coming in on flights.

Those that won't comply with 14 days (and I know a lot that hasn't) won't comply with 10 days, either. It must be a further worry for teachers who are more vulnerable, if not all workers.

If they weren't going to comply with 14 days it makes no difference at all to teachers if it's reduced to 10, I don't understand what you mean by that.

People are much more likely to comply with 7 days.

I think I've read that France reduced isolation to 7 days - anyone know if that's correct?

I'd fully support reducing isolation period provided the test and trace processes are improved.

@notevenat20, breaking the rules at home could put your family at risk. Going back early puts the whole school and the Staff at risk. As well as people on public transport etc. Should we get rid of the drinking and consent age because teenagers don't stick to that either?

This will also apply to people returning from holidays. People booked Turkey because they didn't have to isolate. We've had deaths, here in Liverpool because Staff members (who worked across Social Care) went back to work after five days. They infected oters between 5-10 days. They remained asymptomatic. Now people are booking the Canaries.

Go onto threads and people have no intention to sticking to the rules at Christmas. We will end up in full lock down in the most miserable month, January.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30235-8/fulltext

Quite an interesting article on the French perspective. (Note I don't know anything about the authors of this paper).

They should start by getting all tests processed quickly. It took nearly 5 days for my negative result to come back. I'm a primary teacher so missed all that time unnecessarily.

Absolutely awful move, if people aren’t complying then they won’t regardless of the number of days. They won’t suddenly find their sense of social responsibility.

Leave at 14 days and keep people safe and bring in enforcement and jail time/removal of driving licences etc for those that don’t comply.

Should we get rid of the drinking and consent age because teenagers don't stick to that either?

It really depends what you think the practical effect will be. Reducing from 14 to 7 days seems to have improved compliance in France.

The app has pinged him but we’ve not heard from test and trace and the contact was at the start of this week. I wouldnt be surprised if he hits 7 days with no contact

For app based pings, they're almost completely anonymous, there is no way for anyone to contact him other than via that app ping, which no-one knows about - other than that it exists.

My DH tested Friday. Positive result came this morning.
I’ve already notified school that none of the dc will be back the week after half term
I’ll be sticking to that even if the rules change as there are some vulnerable teachers at their school

Neither of our phones are new enough to accept the app