Hospitals aren’t going to be overwhelmed...because we’re going to cancel routine care again

[Redolent]

Mass cancellations of NHS operations inevitable this winter, say doctors

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/23/mass-cancellations-of-nhs-operations-inevitable-this-winter-say-doctors

“ Organisations representing frontline doctors, including the British Medical Association (BMA), also criticised NHS England for ordering hospitals to provide “near-normal” levels of non-Covid care in the second wave of the pandemic.

“Things are very, very difficult at the moment, very challenging,” said one official in the South Yorkshire NHS. “It feels like a juggling act every day.

“The problem is both the growing numbers of patients coming into hospital with Covid and the numbers of staff we have off sick due to Covid, either because they are ill themselves or because someone in their household has symptoms, so they are isolating,” the official said.”

This is going to have very grim consequences; the waiting list is already shockingly high. It’s also inevitable. The figures for people in hospital are doubling approx every two weeks. If things don’t change, in another month we’ll have more people in hospital than we did at the peak. No way can normal services be sustained.

Covid patients in hospital in England:

23-10-2020 /// 6,518
22-10-2020 /// 6,074
21-10-2020 /// 6,018
20-10-2020 /// 5,828
19-10-2020 /// 5,402
18-10-2020 /// 4,974
17-10-2020 /// 4,814
16-10-2020 /// 4,647
15-10-2020 /// 4,379
14-10-2020 /// 4,156
13-10-2020 /// 3,904
12-10-2020 /// 3,665
11-10-2020 /// 3,451
10-10-2020 /// 3,225
09-10-2020 /// 3,090
08-10-2020 /// 3,044
07-10-2020 /// 2,944
06-10-2020 /// 2,783
05-10-2020 /// 2,593
04-10-2020 /// 2,329
03-10-2020 /// 2,194
02-10-2020 /// 2,088
01-10-2020 /// 1,995

Watermelon999 This would work if the vulnerable who were shielding never had any contact with anyone who wasn’t shielding, or the outside world. But you must know this can never happen.

I think it needs to be considered. It's a shit option but they all are. I fully understand that this whole situation is shit for individuals as I am someone who has lost so much due to it. And it sucks - fuck it, it's devastating - to be one of the ones who has lost the most. But it needs to be looked at at a population level. If we're going to have a certain number of people unemployed why shouldn't that be the shielding people instead of people working in certain industries? Would that actually make it a lower number of people unemployed overall? Are there too many highly trained shielding people who can't be replaced at work?
And if we're going to keep in isolating everyone, why is that better than just the shielding isolating?
I'm really tired of being asked to give so much for people who want to keep their jobs, have DC, and don't see that it's not fair to take these things away from others either.

@SleeplessGeordie

How are you going to make sure all ECV have no contact with people who aren’t shielding? Are you going to stop all chemotherapy for example, because that’s an ECV condition. How do you plan to handle those who need active care and/or treatment?

I’ve been waiting over a year for surgery, am struggling walking some days as pain so bad.

It was cancelled in March, now rescheduled for next month. I’m guessing it’ll be cancelled again.

The NSH is not fit for purpose.

We have to stop treating it like a sacred cow and reform it completely and overhaul the funding.

If we're going to have a certain number of people unemployed why shouldn't that be the shielding people instead of people working in certain industries?

Fucking hell, so because you have a health condition that is not likely to be your fault, you should have your job taken off you so you can stay stuck at home. Even the Tory government think that's unfair, so that's saying something. I agree that there is an onus on personal responsibility and instead of shutting things down, people who are vulnerable could make the decision not to visit pubs etc; but attitudes like yours are grim.

Certain groups of people are being completely written off. One of my parents got diagnosed with cancer over the summer, later than they could have been after diagnostic tests being delayed due to Covid (which was basically non existent in the hospitals where we live then). Treatment for the cancer still hasn’t been properly started, and Emergency Referrals for tests to determine if it’s confined to the area or if it’s spread keep being declined by the local hospital because of Covid backlog. It’s disgusting, this shouldn’t be happening. People shouldn’t have to beg for cancer treatment from a health service they have spent their life paying into

we're going to have a certain number of people unemployed why shouldn't that be the shielding people instead of people working in certain industries? Would that actually make it a lower number of people unemployed overall? Are there too many highly trained shielding people who can't be replaced
Wow just wow. Let's just sack ECV who are unfortunate enough to have a vulnerability and be unable to work from home and give their job to some random unemployed person.
You do realise that we are all just one step away from a diagnosis which would plunge you into that group.
Incidentally my ecv dh has luckily worked throughout in a senior position and will no doubt be funding other peoples furlough for some time to come.

In terms of health it does seem to be a bit of a postcode lottery with some areas shutting down more than others.
Sorry about your parent @Zem74

@Zem74 I’m so sorry this is happening, can you speak to a consultant? Some treatments are delayed because of the increased risks associated with being immune compromised.

Yes but even worse, a lot of the NHS effectively has been shut since April and never reopened despite what govt ministers say. That is really a catastrophe.

@Sandybdnas

If we're going to have a certain number of people unemployed why shouldn't that be the shielding people instead of people working in certain industries?

Fucking hell, so because you have a health condition that is not likely to be your fault, you should have your job taken off you so you can stay stuck at home. Even the Tory government think that's unfair, so that's saying something. I agree that there is an onus on personal responsibility and instead of shutting things down, people who are vulnerable could make the decision not to visit pubs etc; but attitudes like yours are grim.

How exactly is it fair that others should lose their jobs instead? Why should others be "stuck at home" instead? That's my point. If someone's got to be unemployed surely it makes more sense for it to be the shielding people as they are most at risk in the workplace.

@Fajitanita

And when the deniers or the 'I'm alright jacks' keep spreading it

Or people that wanted schools to stay open? What a bunch of bastards to want all children to have equal access to education and for the gap between them not to grow even wider. Or those who needed their businesses to reopen to be able to keep their heads above water, what swines. If covid is the only concern and you can happily revolve your life around it, then that's quite fortunate.

Well what do you want? Schools OR healthcare? Apparently we can't have both!

How exactly is it fair that others should lose their jobs instead? Why should others be "stuck at home" instead? That's my point. If someone's got to be unemployed surely it makes more sense for it to be the shielding people as they are most at risk in the workplace.

Yes, we can easily/quickly retrain bar staff as doctors, nurses and teachers, can't we?

Isolating the ECV alone is not going to stop the spread though without other mitigation. Yes shielding will save the ICU beds for the general public and keep the ECV safe but that is all.
Plus how do the families of the ECV cope when they have to work and attend school which is not COVID secure. We have already been told by the school that they will be issuing fines for non attendance.
The only answer is sd and probably wearing masks at home but not practical for many. We did it for 4 months bar masks and it was so tough. So differrnt to even the general lockdown.

I really don't understand why ECV is being made out to be somehow different from any other disability that means people can't work. I am currently unemployed myself due to disability.
I know so many people who have lost their jobs due to restrictions, entirely industries closed and years and years worth of skills that are now useless, and building up businesses which have been lost overnight. They've been stuck like this for seven months. How is that fair?

Yet I've had a letter today informing me my sons non essential check that was rescheduled for next year has been bought forward to November im confused

This would work if the vulnerable who were shielding never had any contact with anyone who wasn’t shielding, or the outside world. But you must know this can never happen.

Completely impractical. Everyone needs to come into contact with others, whether it's their nurse, doctor, delivery driver, boiler repairer, family, neighbour, electrician, plumber, etc., even if they're only living a nominal life without any pleasures etc. No one can live in a vacuum and have no "human" contact at all.

@Zem74

Certain groups of people are being completely written off. One of my parents got diagnosed with cancer over the summer, later than they could have been after diagnostic tests being delayed due to Covid (which was basically non existent in the hospitals where we live then). Treatment for the cancer still hasn’t been properly started, and Emergency Referrals for tests to determine if it’s confined to the area or if it’s spread keep being declined by the local hospital because of Covid backlog. It’s disgusting, this shouldn’t be happening. People shouldn’t have to beg for cancer treatment from a health service they have spent their life paying into

@Zem74

I’m so sorry about this.

Please don’t blame us nhs workers though, we are equally frustrated and have no say over what gets opened up or closed down.

Our department (not cancer care) has been busy working on our backlog when we were released from redeployment. We’ve now heard we need to close again. We are devastated for our patients who will now be cancelled again, but we have to do what we’re told, we have no choice.

The difference is that many ECV can and do work. Some just have to take regular medication which suppresses their immune system. It does not affect there ability to work.
Yes of course I sympathise with those who have lost jobs or businesses or are on reduced salaries due to restrictions. Indeed I lost out myself and as I have only recently taken on new work and I am a low earner I did not qualify for much support. Also out of work again due to an accident but do not qualifiy for benefits.
COVID is shit for sure.

This is the result of decades of underinvestment in the nhs sadly!

@Watermelon999 of course, I know a few nurses who are all horrified about how things are being dealt with and I know all of this comes from much higher up. It’s just so sad that there were a good 4-5 months to prep for the rising cases now and yet it seems like the hospitals are back to exactly the same position they were in in March/April

@Zem74

We are back to the April numbers now. It’s more an issue with staffing levels and increased numbers of poorly patients in itu, rather than bed capacity.

[quote Zem74]@Watermelon999 of course, I know a few nurses who are all horrified about how things are being dealt with and I know all of this comes from much higher up. It’s just so sad that there were a good 4-5 months to prep for the rising cases now and yet it seems like the hospitals are back to exactly the same position they were in in March/April[/quote]
Same with schools and universities. Despite months to prepare, it's all gone to pot.

It's often been said that management in businesses has been a long standing problem in the UK. Now it seems that the same applies to management in public services too. What's that about a piss up in a brewery.

February DH needed an appointment at the limb centre for his prosthetic leg due to increasing trouble with his false leg making it harder and harder to walk.

They offered a wheelchair but would not see him. He finally has an appt this week which I'm praying does not get cancelled due to rising cases.

I'm waiting an ultrasound. I hope that it isn't anything serious and they suspect (or guess as it was booked after an email 'consultation') it is routine, so I'm still waiting since March. They aren't doing any unless they are urgent.