Vaccine thread with a difference

[TheWhalrus]

So, as we await the results of one or more of the phase III trials involving the vaccines that we think/hope/pray (delete as appropriate) will finally end this nightmare, I thought i'd conduct a quick straw poll.

How many of you either are participating in a vaccine trial, or know someone who is? and, as far as you know, did you/they get COVID-19 yet?. I'm asking because the end point of most of these trials is a certain number of 'events', i.e. a certain number of people need to get COVID-19 in order for us to know whether a vaccine works or not.

Thanks in advance for your responses.

Me and close relative are on Oxford trial. We both deludedly think we got the vaccine rather than the placebo (our reactions to jab weren't typical of the placebo but who knows?).

He travels to central London on public transport and I have three secondary school aged kids. Neither of us break the covid rules but do push it the limits (restaurants, gym, public transport etc).

We've both been testing weekly since early June and neither of us have had a positive test. But then, as far as we know, no one we live with has either. Or anyone we've been in close contact with.

I don’t think the answers will help you much - the trials are blinded so the volunteers don’t know whether they got the COVID vaccine or whatever the trials people were blinding it with.

I’m desperate to know the results too.

If 73 Mumsnetters on the Oxford trial have tested positive, we'll know they're getting close

I'm not sure what you're asking. I am on the novavax trial but only just had 1st dose waiting for 2nd dose.
No i've not had covid but I only had the first shot a week ago. And I have a strong inkling I was given the placebo so am not really sure whether me getting or not getting covid will help anyone.

I’m on the Oxford trial, had the booster in late august and not tested positive yet. No idea about anyone else

@cathyandclare

If 73 Mumsnetters on the Oxford trial have tested positive, we'll know they're getting close

Mumsnet can answer many questions but probably not this one.

@cathyandclare

If 73 Mumsnetters on the Oxford trial have tested positive, we'll know they're getting close

Mumsnetters single handedly solving a global pandemic and saving the world!
Bet Justine didn’t think that would happen when she wanted to set up a website in 2002 for mums to swap holiday cottage suggestions and potty training tips

Thanks for all the responses so far.

@PatienceVirtue, if you got the vaccine you would have had a significantly higher risk of pain, feeling feverish, chills, muscle ache, headache, and malaise in the few days afterwards...did any of that happen?

@Frazzled2207, I'm not encouraging you to go out and take risks, although given you're in a vaccine trial, you getting COVID or not getting COVID is definitely indirectly helping all of us. As is anyone else who has volunteered for these trials.

@TheWhalrus I don't think that's true because the placebo is an actual jab (for meningitis) rather than saline or something, deliberately so that it wouldn't be obvious who was getting the real thing.

The only difference in the effects of the meningitis jab and covid one is that the meningitis one is marginally more likely to cause a localised rash (as far as I understand). Both have potential to give flu-like symptoms.

I had mild heaviness and brief high temp after the first jab and nothing after the booster.

I also had high temp and felt v tired day after first jab and felt nothing at all after booster. I don’t think that tells us anything as the placebo could also give those symptoms ( they said)

@PatienceVirtue no, its definitely true that the Oxford vaccine causes more adverse events than the placebo, even if the placebo was also a vaccine.

Quoting the report from the phase I/II study, involving around 1,000 patients "Local and systemic reactions were more common in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and many were reduced by use of prophylactic paracetamol, including pain, feeling feverish, chills, muscle ache, headache, and malaise (all p

I've been doing some back-of-envelope maths here. So the Oxford trial can break blind when they reach 75 covid positive cases. They've currently got about 20,000 people in the trial - all in countries with high rates of current transmission. I think two thirds of their participants are in the active intervention group and one third are getting placebo. That means that, even if it works perfectly, and only those in the placebo group can catch it, then 75 people in a pool of about 7000 need to test positive. How long can that take? According to the Zoe app (and ONS infection survey roughly concurs) there are approx 40.000 new cases a day at the moment - that's approximately 1 in 1500 of the population. So, the trial should be accruing 4 or 5 new cases a day in its control group alone, or 30ish per week. They have been going for months so they really should have reached 75 by now.... I'm a bit worried that they actually reached 75 a while ago, did the interim analyses and the difference between the two groups weren't big enough to draw conclusions, so they've have had to carry on until they reach their full dataset.

Am I being paranoid? Can someone check my maths? @cathyandclare, I think you've been paying close attention to this trial. Any thoughts?

I'm part of a study 50% get the vaccine and 50 the placebo. The placebo is made up of saline and water, not another vaccine like pp mentioned.
The study is not relevant on us catching Covid.
It's

• to check the safety of the vaccine,
• to check the immune response.
• to see if it prevents Covid 19 or more serious cases of Covid 19

There's no mention of 73 ppl getting Covid will unblind it.

Which vaccine study are you in Torvean? That's fab!

My husband is on the US vaccine Novavax. He has had the first jab and having the second on Friday. He thinks he got the placebo as he has had zero side effects not even a sore arm. He will find out in 12 months which one he has had. And if it was the placebo (saline injection) they will give the covid vaccine.

We don't think any of us has had covid, and he won't go out of his way to catch it so we will have to wait and see.

I like the idea of this thread .
Unfortunately I haven't been called up but I did apply.

I’ve had both jabs for the Novavax vaccine. Only side effect I’ve had was a sore to the touch arm afterwards for a couple of days so I’m assuming I had the placebo aswell. Haven’t tested positive for Covid as yet.

I’m hoping the Novavax vaccine just doesn’t have many side effects as everyone I’ve read about so far who is on the trial says they think they’ve had the placebo due to developing no side effects, we can’t all have had the placebo surely???

I just wanted to say thank you to all the posters who are on the trials (and to those who signed up but haven't been selected).

Hind sight is not obviously a wonder ful thing but what a shame they didn’t get loads of students on the vaccine trial. Could have been brilliant opportunity to get speedy results. Imagine if they had vaccinated all those Nottingham students that all tested positive a few weeks ago!

I'm on the Oxford trial. Like other posters, suspect I had the placebo as I had so few side effects. Haven't tested positive. I know of a couple of people in UK and US who are on trials, none of them have tested positive as far as I know.

@clarexbp: not sure the maths is right or wrong, although I think the efficacy trials for the Oxford vaccine are happening in several countries, including Brazil and South Africa, hence the infection rate might be incorrect. Also that's the current rate, not the infection rate since the trials commenced. Either way, from what i'm reading in news reports, it looks like we're a month away from some sort of result.

@sashagabadon: I wouldn't be overly surprised if a lot of the study participants are students. For example, the safety trial for the Oxford vaccine (unsurprisingly) enrolled a lot of people living in Oxford (many of whom are students, Oxford being a large University town). I think several of the trials (including the Oxford trial in Brazil) are attempting to recruit frontline health professionals who would, obviously, be at a higher risk than many.

@Torvean32: do you know which trial you're on, ie which vaccine you might be receiving. This sounds more like an early phase trial, which is designed to assess safety and tolerability, more than efficacy? I don't think you'd be told specific features of the study statistics on enrollment, but, if it is a blinded and randomized trial, there probably is a prespecified number of events that trigger unblinding.

I'm on the Novavax trial and had my first injection last week with the second due in two weeks.

The placebo is just saline, rather than an alternative vaccine. Some placebos are meningitis.

I had zero side effects, not even redness at the injection site. I'd guess I got the placebo but I think the dose was tiny and the second dose is five times greater, so we'll see. It's all guesswork anyway. I'm just glad to be taking part and playing a tiny role in bringing an end to this shit storm.

You're FAB Greenplum. Thank you.