Oxford vaccine?

[FlorentineAz]

When can we expect to hear anything about the vaccine? I know it needs to be safe and effective but it just feels like a long time since there’s been any positive news about it.

Does anyone know anything? Thanks in advance.

@feelingverylazytoday - thank you. I did google but was hoping to see if anyone had any information that I wasn’t aware of.

Thanks to everyone

Some reports are that they will have enough data for analysis by the end of November.

Do you know where the reports are from?

I guess they have to actually analyse their data and write up the results too which will take some time.

I think Van Tam was suggesting they were hoping for some time between end of this month and end of next, although obviously it's hard to guess. At least there's one benefit to horribly rising cases in the UK I suppose, means results are going to come in faster...

I’m amazed noone’s up in arms about the animal testing needed for these vaccines. Where are all the vegans and anti- vaxxers?

@notevenat20

Some reports are that they will have enough data for analysis by the end of November.

Do you know where the reports are from?

I guess they have to actually analyse their data and write up the results too which will take some time.

Yes, as @GoldenOmber just mentioned, Van Tam was reporting this and I read this in many newspaper reports. I think he is obviously in a good position to say and report on vaccines, however, we know with things like this, timeframes may change and dates may have to be pushed back.

@justanotherneighinparadise

I’m amazed noone’s up in arms about the animal testing needed for these vaccines. Where are all the vegans and anti- vaxxers?

Oh there’s one on my Facebook feed (former NCT) linking to Youtube videos claiming the short timeline means safety is being put at risk with Jaws style music played under the voiceover. I’ve reported it but FB just asks me if I’d like to unfollow her which is hardly the point. I linked to a Life Scientific Radio 4 documentary on how they were managing it safely and said I hoped that would reassure her - no response...

I would say a vaccine that stopped severe Covid illness is an effective vaccine. It may not stop people catching/spreading Covid but if it stops people ending up in hospital and stops people dying I will take that.

Yes and no. It uses a live attenuated virus as a carrier. It's not yet clear if it is safe for the immunocompromised to have it.

It would not be a good outcome if the virus was running freely in a population, making them ill (but less ill) whilst the most vulnerable were left unprotected (unable to receive it safely).

There are other vaccines in development. If one provides immunity (even if it requires regular boosters) and is safer for the exceptionally vulnerable (and indeed the elderly, who may react to some jabs differently to other age groups, hence 2 types of flu jab) - then that might be somewhat better

There are now 10 vaccine candidates in stage 3 trials, including AstraZeneca (Oxford); Pfizer and Moderna. All 3 of these expect to have efficacy data sometime between now and end of November at the earliest. The Novavax candidate is also in stage 3 trials including a UK trial.

Good overview here: (free to read)
www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2

@Nootkah

I believe theyre doing some challenge trials vurrenrly where they will deliberately give peoole covid-19 once they've had the vaccine, to see how effective it is. Currently it is looking like (from primate studies) that the vaccine may not be all that effective - the primate studies showed it did not stop someone catching covid-19 and did not stop them spreading covid-19, but did seem to stop covid-19 from developing i to a severe systemic illness.

Those trials have started? That’s good.

I’ll also take that outcome for now

They will start in January.

Yeh I thought January, I had read that.

The trials are scheduled to start in January and are not planned to include the Oxford vaccine.

The first point of assessment for the Oxford vaccine is when 75 people test positive for symptomatic COVID. They then unblind the trial and consider going for an early licence for use in some high risk populations. I imagine they know that they're approaching 75, but won't know the efficacy until they unblind.

Slow typing!

@cathyandclare

The trials are scheduled to start in January and are not planned to include the Oxford vaccine.

The first point of assessment for the Oxford vaccine is when 75 people test positive for symptomatic COVID. They then unblind the trial and consider going for an early licence for use in some high risk populations. I imagine they know that they're approaching 75, but won't know the efficacy until they unblind.

Very interesting Cathy thanks. Gosh takes a while to get to 75. What a moment when they unbind - fingers crossed

I’m not very optimistic about the vaccines returning life to normal anymore. At least not the first generation. They are setting a very low bar for efficacy — 50%. Also as long as the government sticks to targeted protection (of the vulnerable) rather than transmission protection most of us will remain at risk, including the vulnerable who aren’t eligible and fall between the cracks, such as undiagnosed diabetics.

Good article here this morning from a former Director of Immunisation at the Department of Health:

“If you're pinning your hopes on a Covid vaccine, here's a dose of realism“

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

Also as long as the government sticks to targeted protection (of the vulnerable) rather than transmission protection most of us will remain at risk

It is worth saying that they have not said they're doing this. The head of the vaccine task force seemed to say they were, Matt Hancock said it wasn't up to the task force and the government would go by JCVI recommendations, and JCVI recommendations don't say they will only target the vulnerable (albeit obviously they can't make set recommendations until they know the details of what vaccine they're dealing with, but they do say "When more data become available, the committee will consider whether a transmission-based vaccination strategy (vaccinating those most likely to spread the virus in the population) can also play a part in controlling the pandemic.)"

I'm not familiar with the Oxford trial in particular, but the trial is likely to be event-driven, ie it stops when a certain number have caught covid. So there isn't a predictable end date and they wouldn't share a guesstimate as media would be all over it.

Also that's a ridiculously doom-mongering headline which doesn't line up with the reasonable points made in the article itself. Not the fault of the author who didn't pick it, but the Guardian should be aiming for clear communication and not clickbait or whatever it is they're doing.

The Guardian is pathetic atm

Mostly scoring points in every direction in line with their agenda

Im taking part in the Novovax vaccination study. I was told by the consultant there that 3 vaccines are close to the end of stage 3. The novovaccine, oxford vaccine and a vaccine by pfizer. There's a possibility of release in December. So rollout to the public would start in spring.

What does 'targeted protection of the vulnerable' actually mean?

How is 'vulnerable' defined for this purpose?
What does the protection actually consist of?

@IcedPurple well aren't you a ray of sunshine just spoiling for a fight!

If pointing out inaccuracies in a post you chose to make on a public discussion board is 'spoiling for a fight' then yeah, I guess I am.

a) Ill grant you that I'm obsessive about this 😁

Not 'obessive' enough, however, to be aware of how and why the primate studies were conducted, or that the challenge studies have not yet started and do not involve the Oxford vaccine.

If it stops hospitals being overrun, then that means we can all get back to normal.

The NHS being overwhelmed is the only reason for lockdown. If a covid vaccine renders it no more deadly than any other virus then it would be very successful. We should not wait for a vaccine that will wipe it out completely.

@MarshaBradyo

The Guardian is pathetic atm

Mostly scoring points in every direction in line with their agenda

Yep.

If a safe, effective vaccine were rolled out tomorrow, they'd somehow find a way to put a negative spin on it.