Page 2 | Hindsight - Back Where We Started

DdraigGoch · 21/10/2020 09:09

@Youandmeareluckytobeus

I think that if the rule of six had been in place at the time when the more severe lockdown restrictions were relaxed, it would have brought home to people that the virus was still out there and that it was still important to take care. I think the rule of six, socially-distanced, would be fine if it was only mixing with the same 6 people. The fact that you can mix with 6 people for lunch, a different 6 people for dinner and then go and have drinks with a further 6 (for example) makes it totally ridiculous. You are indirectly connecting with all the other contacts of each of those people.

This^

I never understood why they went from bubbles to this rule of six.

MummyPop00 · 21/10/2020 09:35

Not sure why people are continually harping on about T&T. There has to be universal compliance for it to even have a chance of working properly & there is real difficulty tracing asymptomatic cases.

Asia were ready & acted very early because of previous outbreaks. Look around Europe, it’s a similar story to the UK. An outlier of sorts is Germany, but I’m not sure that’s because of T&T, as Germany have still had 370,000 (confirmed) cases to date & still rising. Hardly a ringing endorsement if T&T’s main aim was to stop new cases?

BogRollBOGOF · 21/10/2020 10:32

The summer was squandered with its seasonally low rates. Getting people out and keeping their immune systems working would have reduced the escalation of the figures since September (spreading the load on the NHS), particularly amongst the section of the population returning to education after 6 months.

Rates were tailing off rapidly in May, very low in June. It may have been a pandemic, but it wasn't even an epidemic in the UK at that point. Life should have been closer to normal with education, but still care with capacities and social distancing and maximising outdood opportunities from June into August when industries were still opening up painfully slowly and many being towards September by the time individual businesses had dealt with the logistics.

The seasonal pattern is evident in the northern and southern hemispheres.

Original poster

NotAKaren · 21/10/2020 18:25

I agree with PPs regarding the failures on testing and track and trace. I also think that giving the green light for holidays abroad while not having the systems in place to test on returning and/ or to monitor those supposed to quarantine when returning was inviting disaster especially as cases started to rise again in Europe. While it is difficult to know whether Eat Out in itself was directly responsible for increasing cases, it was another green light from the Government that did coax many to go out that may not have otherwise done so. It's about not necessarily about these things being responsible but more about the false message that was given that all was back to normal and it was ok to go abroad, eat out, go to the pub, have a party rather than a more controlled proceed with caution approach.

OP posts:

IceCreamAndCandyfloss · 21/10/2020 18:31

Track and trace only works if people comply and given how many admit they lie when leaving contact details or ignore calls from t&t it can only do so much.

I do think we rushed opening everything but I also think people not bothering testing, sending children into school sick, not following isolation, not distancing or can’t seem to be able to count to six has a large impact.

MarshaBradyo · 21/10/2020 18:37

I have wondered about this op and I’m not sure. It must have given a boost to spending but the downside is if we have to curb more.

Although in London we are not as high as before and seems slower which is good.

I did see a chart on hospital admissions which flatlined on low basis in summer. I hope some of the back log went ahead.

herecomesthsun · 21/10/2020 18:50

@Dongdingdong

I’m afraid the only real way out of this is herd immunity, which is what the government wanted to do in the beginning. We will all have to either take our chances or face an entire lifetime living in limbo.

sorry herd immunity is a non starter for several good scientific reasons

eg we do not appear to have reliable long lasting immunity after covid infection and

herd immunity does not generally eradicate infectious disease. That's why vaccines got invented.

herecomesthsun · 21/10/2020 18:52

@MummyPop00

Not sure why people are continually harping on about T&T. There has to be universal compliance for it to even have a chance of working properly & there is real difficulty tracing asymptomatic cases.

Asia were ready & acted very early because of previous outbreaks. Look around Europe, it’s a similar story to the UK. An outlier of sorts is Germany, but I’m not sure that’s because of T&T, as Germany have still had 370,000 (confirmed) cases to date & still rising. Hardly a ringing endorsement if T&T’s main aim was to stop new cases?

Well the WHO have said this should be the cornerstone of an effective response to covid.

Also, other countries with low infection rates and a strong economic recovery have used test and trace to manage covid and it worked for them.

wondersun · 21/10/2020 19:32

@NotAKaren

Just wondering if in hindsight the relaxation restrictions over summer, particularly the much heralded air bridges allowing travel abroad for holidays and incentives such as Eat Out were all worth it considering we are back where we started. Would a more cautious relaxation have been better, meaning perhaps a more stable and manageable situation for households and businesses which was more sustainable over a longer period until we had a vaccine.

Completely back where we started. Given that cases are doubling weekly, that a lockdown would take two weeks to take effect and that we had 26000 cases today. 2600022 is 104000, which is where we were at the peak. BUT so much as improved regards treatments and procedures are more covid secure. But we REALLY need Boris to pull his finger out and take control. I genuinely wonder - not unkindly - if he has long covid. He seems defeated and a lot of his actions I find increasingly strange - the way he treated Manchester and Andy Burnham was at best childish. Childish from a PM in the middle of a pandemic is very worrying.

Original poster

NotAKaren · 21/10/2020 19:35

Agreed @IceCreamAndCandyfloss and the constant search for loopholes in everything and the mindset of 'it doesn't matter if I do x because I saw someone in Tescos without a mask'. Then there is Cummings trip to Durham and MPs flouting rules. What an absolute mess.

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ForBlueSkies · 21/10/2020 19:37

We wasted it all, all that effort. This was never a on/off switch situation. It was always going to stay with us and become exponential again if we didn’t use the time wisely to put the right systems in place and didn’t, as a populace, remain vigilant. I blame the government messaging.

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2020 19:58

We are not back to where we started. If we were back to where we started we'd financially also be back at the same point. And so much damage to relations with the devolved regions and local political leaders wouldn't have been done. We wouldn't have wasted billions on a track and trace system that doesn't work. The public trust and willingness to comply has also been massively burnt through

All this is relevant because a centralised approach has been proved to be ineffective, yet the government still don't want to take concerns from local leaders (and SAGE) that T3 restrictions are unlikely to reduce the number of cases. And increasing hardship and political fracturing is likely to discourage engagment and participation in virus control methods.

So no, we are in a far worst situation before we even add in the problem of Autumn and Winter bed capacity usually being in the 80%+ range before you even count the extra for covid, and how the winter is a better environment for the virus to spread than summer.

Fizbosshoes · 21/10/2020 20:07

I do think we rushed opening everything but I also think people not bothering testing, sending children into school sick, not following isolation, not distancing or can’t seem to be able to count to six has a large impact.

There is a thread on here where people are talking about waiting 8 DAYS for test results (by which time symptoms have likely passed and they've almost done their isolation time) There will be a % of people who cant afford to wait a week or more without pay, to find out if they/their child have got covid.
I'm not saying they're right (and lots of MN will pile on and call them selfish idiots) but at the end of the day people will choose to take their own risks because their own families survival is paramount.(as in putting food on the table etc)

Thanksitsgotpockets · 21/10/2020 20:57

@AllPowerfulLizardPerson

The summer was the time for those who couid to have their circuses, cakes and ale.

Before the winter slog began again.

Suppressing it harder in the summer wouid have made no difference to a resurgence during the cooler damper winter months (I expect the worst will be in the peak flu months Jan-Mar) and wouid just have meant no-one got a break, and the year wouid have been even more of a grind than it needed to be

I agree. If anything we could have eased earlier and taken advantage of seasonality.