Rep of Ireland goes into lockdown for six weeks

[Asterion]

Wow. I'm quite surprised. Rep of Ireland is a relatively small country, with easily managed borders.

Full lockdown! For six weeks!

Did you look at the rates in the U.K. over the last 2 weeks OP? That might explain why ROI has gone into lockdown.

@3littlewords sadly, it doesn't work the other way around. You need to have a functioning health service and social structures to support business carrying on as normal. Unless you can find a way to employ zombies in offices, and sell them Pret lunches.

Total over reaction. As seems the thing to do in this ‘crisis’

Will achieve nothing other than a destroyed economy and livelihoods.

Even the WHO say lockdowns should not be the primary method of dealing with the virus.

Political posturing at its finest. And those taken in by the fear mongering about the virus need to seriously check their own sanity

@Smallsteps88 according to the SAGE scientists, like Farrar, we are over 50,000 daily new cases now. Unfortunately, testing isn't keeping pace with this. This is where we were in early- mid March....

[quote herecomesthsun]@3littlewords sadly, it doesn't work the other way around. You need to have a functioning health service and social structures to support business carrying on as normal. Unless you can find a way to employ zombies in offices, and sell them Pret lunches.[/quote]
You also need functioning businesses to support the health service. If no one is earning who's funding our health service, emergency services and education?

@SonEtLumiere

Both our economies are in recession. But we have the added bonus of lots of deaths in the Spring, and lots more to expect in the winter ahead.

@SonEtLumiere

I would be cautious about awarding Gold Stars to New Zealand

So exactly the same as the rest of the world then?

My mention of NZ was in response to a comment about no govt winning. NZ’s electorate were clearly happy with their governments handling of the situation enough to vote them in again. No country is going to be financially well after this. Regardless of handling. It is impossible. NZ being in recession is not a sign they handled it badly.

@3littlewords Like I said, you need both. We need first to get cases and deaths down and then to keep open as much as we can around what is covid secure. We desperately need test and trace to work medium term and we need to learn, where we can, from economies that are doing this better (Korea)

[quote herecomesthsun]@Smallsteps88 according to the SAGE scientists, like Farrar, we are over 50,000 daily new cases now. Unfortunately, testing isn't keeping pace with this. This is where we were in early- mid March....[/quote]
We really really aren’t in the same place as March

Quit with your scaremongering misinformation

Ireland has gone into lockdown because it has a disgustingly underfunded health system, with 60 ICU beds in the whole country, 32 of which are currently full. As comparison, I believe the UK has something like 4000 ICU beds. It doesnt take a lot for Irelands health service to collapse. They have to lockdown or there will be no healthcare. Unfortunately, by doing so, they have ensured there will be no economy at the end of lockdown either.

Basically, Ireland are effed no matter what they do.

Easily managed borders? Everyone in border counties were going into NI to go to the pub when the pubs in ROI were still closed, and it was transmitted back over the border that way.

What really annoys us though is that the problem has been places of work (manufacturing and food production facilities) and attendance at and celebrations after GAA matches - but those are the 2 things that are still to continue. TG schools are still open. But for people who have been abiding by the rules, and barely been out of the house in recent months - certainly not meeting friends/family, having dinners, definitely not going to pubs (as they never opened up in some parts!), they are the ones who are going to continue to suffer while the ones who have been ignoring the issue, having parties, refusing to wear masks etc - they are the ones who will continue to ignore it all.....

@herecomesthsun

So I really sympathise for all those for whom this will be very difficult and my heart goes out to them. But I also think "lucky them" for having a government that is at least competent to make a decision and puts heath first.

If they 'put health first' why didn't they spend the last several months building up what was already a pretty poor public healthcare system?

@hamstersarse Sorry about the FACTS.

50k new cases estimated per day (as in early March, specifically) - as suggested by Jeremy Farrar of SAGE

Vallance in the broadcast on 16th October - he appeared with Boris Johnson, as I recall -estimated current new DAILY cases were between 22k and 74k. SAGE appear to think new daily cases are 40-50k and rising.

Confirmed testing figures are less than this- but we know they aren't accurate.

In March we had exponential growith up to 100k+ cases per day. We look to be heading in that direction, unfortunately.

On the one hand, we have better treatment (as long as beds aren't overwhelmed). We know that ventilation is often not helpful, we know that steroids can help, we have some other treatments.

On the other hand, beds are certainly filling up and hospitals are concerned about anaging the numbers.

So in some respects - especially the SAGE estimates of 50k new cases per day and rising - it IS similar to March.

And we'd better take it that seriously.

Sorry.

NZ is a completely different situation to ROI - they are 2 remote islands in the middle of an ocean, where they have really controlled the few people they have let in until they had quarantined, and managed to suppress the virus.

ROI has a lot of movement of people, there are still planes in and out daily even if far fewer and emptier, but there were plenty who insisted on taking holidays and plenty of tourists who came here but didn't quarantine. As well as plenty of fools who continued to go out and about WHILE WAITING FOR TEST RESULTS HAVING TAKEN A TEST!!!! Not even "you should be isolating because you are a close contact" or similar, but people who had symptoms, got tested, and continued with their daily lives until they got their positive results so continuing to spread it.

I am struggling this week. And it is not helped by hearing tales, even within my extended family, of the events they have attended and lack of notice they've taken as restrictions increased. Most of whom should know better.

Not full lockdown - schools are open - I think both primary and secondary, same as Wales (up to year eight staying) and interestingly the same as Slovenia which is keeping primaries open even with their new lockdown measures.

I am increasingly feeling that there is not the same desire for a full scale school closure across Europe as there was in March.

@Asterion

Wow. I'm quite surprised. Rep of Ireland is a relatively small country, with easily managed borders.

Full lockdown! For six weeks!

Ireland has most definitely not got "easily managed borders". There are well over 200 crossings on a 500km border. People live on one side and work on the other. People's local hospital, shop, school, fire brigade etc can be on the other side of the border (there is cross-border agreement on certain services). Goods go back and forward repeatedly. For example, milk to the creamery on the other side of the border, cream back over to factories, product back over again.

And then add in the political implications of trying to close the border. Then add in Arlene's attitude towards co-operation with the south. So no, we do not have easily managed borders.

[quote herecomesthsun]@hamstersarse Sorry about the FACTS.

50k new cases estimated per day (as in early March, specifically) - as suggested by Jeremy Farrar of SAGE

Vallance in the broadcast on 16th October - he appeared with Boris Johnson, as I recall -estimated current new DAILY cases were between 22k and 74k. SAGE appear to think new daily cases are 40-50k and rising.

Confirmed testing figures are less than this- but we know they aren't accurate.

In March we had exponential growith up to 100k+ cases per day. We look to be heading in that direction, unfortunately.

On the one hand, we have better treatment (as long as beds aren't overwhelmed). We know that ventilation is often not helpful, we know that steroids can help, we have some other treatments.

On the other hand, beds are certainly filling up and hospitals are concerned about anaging the numbers.

So in some respects - especially the SAGE estimates of 50k new cases per day and rising - it IS similar to March.

And we'd better take it that seriously.

Sorry.[/quote]
Cases are already dropping off

Death rates are a fraction of what they were. Tiny. In comparison to other causes of death.

85% of people who go into ICU recover now

That’s without going into the problems with the PCR tests, the counting of ‘cases’, the allocation of ‘causes of death’

Just try and go slightly beyond the BBC headline and you might calm yourself

😁Ha to those saying no foreign tourism in NZ.

My DD and DP are still there along with thousands of others because they can’t get home. They went travelling and couldn’t get home when lockdown announced. She can’t even get to Australia at the moment as corridor opening but lots of restrictions. So there is some tourists spending money on food. We also sent her a bouquet of native flowers for her birthday in June I would imagine similar transactions being made by other parents/relatives. They have new visas now and hope to do fruit picking as they are on Workaway otherwise we will be sending them more money. We had to fund Airbnb for the first month as they were in a camper van and had to get off site.

@toxtethOgradyUSA

It's competitive lockdown week in the UK. Scotland, Wales and Ireland have played their hand but Boris will now trump them all by announcing we are going into lockdown until the end of 2020

Ireland is not part of the UK.

I'm not surprised - with the Republic's numerous border crossing points with Northern Ireland, and NI having 900+/100k cases in some regions, I don't blame the Republic for being cautious.

@SqidgeBum Ireland has more than 60 ICU beds, closer to 300 I think. At the start of this crisis, the UK and Ireland had roughly equal ICU beds per capita - both bottom of the class. Not sure what the situation is now, the UK may have added more than Ireland by now.

@hamstersarse This isn't about the BBC headlines, this is listening to SAGE.

People getting ill over the summer were in the younger age groups,but (as Vallance said on 16th October) now that older people are getting ill, the deaths will rise.

Why not listen to what he said? It's

with 60 ICU beds in the whole country

You literally just pulled this number out of your arse. There are 255, and during the last lockdown the Government rented all the additional ICU beds in the private hospitals, of which there are many.

Please don't weigh in about a country you clearly know nothing about.

We'll have another update with Jonathan Van Tam and Boris Johnson at 5pm, apparently.

It would be lovely if they say that everything's getting better and we can all go back to normal, so lets see if the science supports that.