Guardian "on the rise" cases map shows cases falling nearly everywhere

[avenueq]

So does that not mean measures might be working and it's best to wait?

Many of the northern cities' cases have fallen since the end of Sept/beginning of October. Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle from the Government dashboard attached:

What's your area Popcorn river?

Now we know that your information from test and trace will be passed on, I'm actually surprised anyone is getting tested. There's no benefit to it. For most people it means loss of wages, household confined to the house for 2 weeks, and impacting on other people.
Obviously for society at large we need people to get tested and isolating, but FFS the government is practically discouraging it.
And let's not even mention the "schools are safe" thing when kids get different symptoms that you can't get tested for.

Percentages are deceiving though for rates dropping.
Orkney islands show a red increase but that is from 1 to 3 cases!
Whereas other places show a drop but that have gone from (e.g.) 1050 to 1005.
The rates in percentages gives a false impression of the risk.

Zoe app said end of last week that the rise was slowing on their data, which is self selecting app users but they say is a few days ahead of government figures.

@Judashascomeintosomemoney

Blue means numbers are lower than last week Nope, no idea what they’ve done but both the area I live in and the area I travel to every day have had rising cases week on week and yet they’re both shown as blue on the Guardian map.

Exactly the same for my area. It’s not a true reflection. Cases are definitely increasing in my area and surrounding areas too

Percentages are deceiving though for rates dropping. Orkney islands show a red increase but that is from 1 to 3 cases! Whereas other places show a drop but that have gone from (e.g.) 1050 to 1005. The rates in percentages gives a false impression of the risk.

^^Exactly this. Showing a heatmap of cases in the last 7 days per 100,000 is much more helpful. It is good news that the rate of increase is slowing in many areas though.

There seem to be various sources of data for these all have their merits. The overriding message I get is that things are nothing like as gloomy as Whitty and his mates keep trying to tell us.

They are aware of the opportunity for exponential growth.

If you click on areas here it shows the change in cases per area. I’d trust this more than the guardian.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Most of the map appears to be down 1% so pretty negligible sadly or have I misread it.

Current map not quite so blue.

@Bailey0703

This is a much clearer system for understanding where we are. It's the collated data from every council. Updated daily.

The situation is not 'falling' . There are a few areas where the rise is slowing or lower than the week before. (Falling) . But few and far between.

www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

So are you saying it is rising still everywhere...but rising more slowly in some places? Presumably the key thing is whether R is over one, if it is then cases are rising? Is there anywhere in the UK where R is currently thought to be less than one? Still, I guess a slow down in the increase helps.

I think some people here are misunderstanding what the map is showing. It's not showing the static number of cases (in which case you are correct there could never be -1) but a seven day rolling average (which can drop and isn't).

I am concerned that the numbers in university towns may be deceiving. Places like Newcastle and Durham have had big university outbreaks and while they stay within the university it's fairly easy to proactively test people who share a flat. It looks as though they're now getting to grips with those within the universities which is good. However, where it has transferred to people outside the university (in shops/crowded city centres) those people are less easy to trace and may well be silently spreading in which case I would expect another rise within a week or so.

No, I think the Guardian fucked up and reversed the numbers yesterday. Mine showed that last week was 147 new cases/100k, down from 181 new cases the week before that - so yes, cases still rising, but rate slowing rather than increasing exponentially. Whereas the other link that Bailey posted reversed those two numbers, so we had 181 new cases last week, up from 147 new cases the week before.

Interestingly...I checked today, and they have corrected the figures when they updated the new cases this week. It now says that there were 181 new cases per 100k two weeks ago but only 116 new cases per 100k last week. So again, still adding cases, but rate definitely slowing and levelling off. This now pretty much agrees with the link Bailey posted above so I think the Guardian just reversed the numbers for the week before.

Anyway, it's clearly not exponential growth round here, no matter which way you slice it, and the rates of new infections are slowing.

They've changed the map now to show increase or decrease in numbers rather than percent, presumably to stop the misleading figures in places with very low cases. I suspect the reason so many areas showed (and still show) a fall in new cases is that they're comparing against the week including 3rd & 4th October when thousands of missing cases were suddenly added on.