Do on average 600 people die every year from seasonal flu?

[notevenat20]

There have been a lot of comparisons made between covid and seasonal flu so I am trying to get to the bottom of how many people actually die of seasonal flu every year. We know about 50,000 died on covid been march and august 2020.

Is this accurate?

"In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09). Flu leads to hundreds of thousands of GP visits and tens of thousands of hospital stays a year."

vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

If disagreeing please only cite official/academic references and not newspapers for example.

www.bbc.com/news/health-54463511

This breaks down covid, pneumonia and flu deaths. Flu deaths between Jan to august were under 400.

That sounds very low, as a gut answer - totally not what you were after.
I wonder if the exact coding for cause of death matters - so have flu, leads to pneumonia, what is the cause of death?

If I had a bigger screen, I'd look at the office of national statistics -instructions here for how to find 2019 flu deaths.

I wonder if the exact coding for cause of death matters - so have flu, leads to pneumonia, what is the cause of death?

From reading the ONS coding description I believe that would be marked down as flu.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports

The death rate of flu in winter of 2017/2018 is astonishing.

The death rate of flu in winter of 2017/2018 is astonishing.

Could you give a reference to something official? I am aware there were 50,000 excess winter deaths but it seems few were from flu.

all the more reason to have a flu jab surely ?

@Harrysblondie

The death rate of flu in winter of 2017/2018 is astonishing.

Yep. 22,000 according to the government's own data (see link by @scaevola ). Not sure where 600 comes from, Seems quite odd the quote you have OP.

Had a read of your original link and I genuinely think that's a typo and they mean 6000

What do you make of this?

www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

The surveillance reports here www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports estimate 8,000 last winter and 22,000 during the winter of 17/18. There were only 4,000 in 18/19 (presumably because so many had died in the previous year) but the 5 year average would still be something like 10-12,000, nothing like 600 (600 maybe the average weekly number during winter?)

If a single year can be over 10,000 an average of 600 would essentially require no deaths from flu for about 8 years either side of that year which is clearly pure nonsense. How on earth that got onto an academic website which is presumably proof read is rather worrying and shows a lack of common sense amongst those involved.

This was on the BBC this morning

It was also reported on the bbc last week or the week before that flu numbers this year were about 400 so far as it’s been a good year for numbers to remain low. I can’t find it now but it was on general info on the coronavirus tab. Said with the lockdowns and sd in place the rate of infection for flu was incredibly low.

@Mum2threejs

Yes it was 394 deaths from seasonal flu from January to August.

We regularly have excess winter death in excess of 40k a year, most of these are respiratory conditions. A couple of years ago it was over 49k.

If you think back to news reports when doctors were saying that patients were literally dying in A&E waiting for beds. This actually happens.

April 2020 was something else though. So many deaths in such a short period of time. The winter deaths are usually spread from October to February (we usually not peaks in October, December and January).

I'd be very, very surprised if it was anywhere near that figure on average. I've only had real flu once and despite being very healthy and young, I was very, very poorly. It took over a month to really begin to recover and I suffered with secondary infections. Everyone always seems to say oh I have the flu when they mean a very bad cold so I got quite a shock with how poorly I ended up. Since then I've paid for a private flu shot and always gave permission for the nasal flu vaccine for my children. Another reason I'd quite like to avoid catching covid if possible, despite being low risk.

Flu deaths between Jan to august were under 400.

Aren't they always low in Spring and Summer?

Probably higher in October to January!

[quote notevenat20]What do you make of this?

www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6[/quote]
I've seen that before and it makes the assumption that all flu deaths are in people who went to ICU first which, instinctively, feels wrong - I imagine that, much like COVID, there are plenty of flu deaths in the community and care homes. I don't have numbers to back this up, though.

Aren't they always low in Spring and Summer?

Yes although Jan 1 to Feb 28 is definitely not spring.

I've seen that before and it makes the assumption that all flu deaths are in people who went to ICU first which, instinctively, feels wrong - I imagine that, much like COVID, there are plenty of flu deaths in the community and care homes. I don't have numbers to back this up, though.

Yes although we seem to need to account for 22000-372 deaths!

@sunflowers246

Flu deaths between Jan to august were under 400.

Aren't they always low in Spring and Summer?

Probably higher in October to January!

I think the flu peak might have been late dec/Jan this year from what I can remember. So Jan-Aug would have had a large proportion of last winter’s deaths. It was a very mild flu winter last year.

Wasn’t 2017/2018 the year with the B strain that wasn’t in the vaccine. Which would probably explain the high death rate.

fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

This from full fact might help.

The statistics seem to fluctuate too wildly. I read that last year over 12000 people in UK died of flu/flu related complications.

It is still barely Autumn. The Uk ‘flu peak season is January and February. The Uk ‘flu season has barely even started yet.