It will be interesting to see the death rate from flu this year

[RubyandBen]

Do you think it will be well below normal because of the number of people who died with/from CV in the past few months?

I think they will put it down to Covid anyway

Many more have had flu jab this year

I think it’s really variable depending on

How bad the flu strains are
How well the vaccine covers them
Other factors like weather

So it’s hard to say.

@frozendaisy

Many more have had flu jab this year

Do you have a source for this? I’ve read that the flu vaccines were ordered prior to the COVID-19 pandemic so there aren’t loads of extra doses available.

The rate of deaths from flu vary considerably each year despite having a vaccine available mainly because it only protects against a few specific strains of flu which isn’t easily predictable.

I think flu rates (and associated deaths) will be lower this year as so many people are wearing masks and following the rules to prevent spread of CV (another respiratory virus). And because many susceptible people have already died from CV19

Flu will likely be next to non existent as it is far less contagious than covid and the covid containment measures are based on what we know about influenza so are much more effective for flu.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4052180-Strange-goings-on-with-the-flu-numbers-and-other-expected-deaths-this-year-globally

There is something very strange going on

Globally, flu is down 97% in the last 5-6 months of this year

I don’t think it’s strange that flu is down so dramatically. The obvious factors are social distancing and other infection control measures, the flu vaccine uptake is larger this year judging by difficulties obtaining it privately and a percentage of people who would actually be tested and confirmed as flu have sadly succumbed to covid.

Flu should be well down due to all the hygiene and WFH measures.
Plus a lot of people not due a jab are paying privately (I’m in a queue for it).

@hamstersarse that is unbelievable. Does make you wonder if excess deaths are going to start balancing out.

This past winter had a low flu death rate, I think about 8,000 less deaths. These deaths were expected to happen later in the year or next flu season. Obviously probably covid 19 took them.

Surely it makes sense flu would go down, due to all the Covid preventative measures?

Minimal flu cases reported in Victoria this year.
Masks, increased hand hygiene and social distancing at work

Flu numbers should be well down, because the restrictions to limit the spread of Covid will limit the spread of flu, and also noro and other winter bugs.

High uptake of flu jabs should also reduce numbers.

This should take huge pressure off hospitals this winter. We normally see patients on trolleys in corridors due to flu numbers. Not saying they won't still be over run with CV.

@QueenStromba

Flu will likely be next to non existent as it is far less contagious than covid and the covid containment measures are based on what we know about influenza so are much more effective for flu.

That's what i'd have thought but weren't more people dying of flu last month than Covid?

there was very low flu cases in Australia and New Zealand this winter.

There's some speculation that along with social distancing it wasn't imported from the northern hemisphere.

It will depend on the flu strain and compatability of the vaccine to some extent which under normal circumstances is the greatest variable.

Plus weather. There were 50,000 excess deaths in 2018 between a virulent strain that was not anticipated in the vaccine development and a long hard ending to the winter with the Beast from the East, and spring not arriving until May.

But yes, I would expect Covid measures to also mitigate the spread of flu, particularly hitting Christmas socialising through the general population and passing in to more vulnerable people.

There is a significant overlap between those most suceptible to Covid and flu and you can't die seperately from both on different occasions. There will always be a section of the population at very high suceptibility of dying from the next upleasant infection that they get, flu, norovirus, now Covid 19 in the mix. Covid 19 death rates in the spring will have been augmented by a "good" flu winter survived by a greater than average number of very vulnerable people.

I would expect flu and Covid 19 deaths to be "shared" between both illnesses this year. Surplus deaths may be high over the winter, but I suspect that from experience this summer, that will be counter-balanced again next summer.

With an average age of death being 82, typically a very significant proportion of that population has "prematurely" lost months of life rather than years.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/927142/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w42.pdf Page 67 shows flu jab uptake this year compared to last year.

increased vaccination + increased hygiene + increased social distancing + extra protection of elderly and clinically vulnerable

Vs

reduced and delayed access to health care because of Covid (people not seeking help themselves, being delayed as they have to seek a covid Test first, NHS being overwhelmed)

I would hope flu deaths will be reduced this winter.

“ That's what i'd have thought but weren't more people dying of flu last month than Covid?”
That’s right, @annabel85 - in August I think because the cases and deaths for Covid were right down. They’ve obviously risen since then.

Here’s a chart to show, from the ONS.

Nothing strange at all about flu deaths being so low, the measure and restrictions in place for CV19 have had a positive affect on flu transmission.

That's what i'd have thought but weren't more people dying of flu last month than Covid?

That is because they lump flu in with pneumonia.

.
www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-compared-pneumonia-flu-ons-a4566176.html

Flu will be lower due to social distancing and flu jabs.

Agree many have already been taken by COVID

Incidentally there seems to be a pneumonia vaccine this year. Did not know that existed.

It is worth nothing that the number of people who die from flu is much smaller than seems to be popularly thought. A lot of people die of pneumonia and maybe this number will be lower this winter?

@Northernsoulgirl45

Agree many have already been taken by COVID

Incidentally there seems to be a pneumonia vaccine this year. Did not know that existed.

It’s been around for a while. I know it’s recommended before starting any immunosuppressive medication for things like Crohn’s disease, arthritis, psoriasis etc. I don’t think it’s part of any regular vaccination schedule otherwise.