Cases by Age - ONS study

[HelloitsmeMargaret]

The ONS have released their latest data on age of infections. This is random testing so will pick up the asymptomatic cases.

It pretty much puts to bed the idea young kids are silent spreaders, but it also helpfully splits out 10-19 into 10-16 and 16-24. The really sharp increases are in the latter which will be really interesting if they can correlate with the super-spreader events. Data so far suggests 80% of cases come from 20% of people.

Possibly strong policy case for masks in Year 12+

I'm in Scotland so have no idea what year 12 age group would be. Or any of the other year groups tbh. 16/17 or thereabouts?

Yes 16.

It shows that primary school measures appear to be working - much easier to have bubbles which can isolate. Not so much fir secondary or sixth form where options make a mockery of bubbles - larger groups exposed

@dermentedpixie Year 12 is 16-17.

Year 6 is last year of primary (so 10-11).

The figures really do show the low cases in primary school age children which reflects the experience in my DC’s school. There are have been no cases in the primary division over the past six weeks and a couple of isolated cases in the secondary division (it’s an “all through” school).

@CarrieBlue Maybe, but my children go to an “all through” school where the teachers from the senior school come into the primary to teach. We’ve still had no cases in the primary despite having a couple of cases in the senior.

It's reflecting the mass contact testing going on in universities. No other age group is getting that.

[quote BunsyGirl]@CarrieBlue Maybe, but my children go to an “all through” school where the teachers from the senior school come into the primary to teach. We’ve still had no cases in the primary despite having a couple of cases in the senior.[/quote]
Then you’re lucky. Or maybe the primary kids are asymptomatic.

Surely it just represents that younger kids are asymptomatic and not being tested as much as teenagers

Data so far suggests 80% of cases come from 20% of people.
The Pareto principle proven right yet again. I wonder If the bell curve will also be proven right in the same manner.

@PickAChew

It's reflecting the mass contact testing going on in universities. No other age group is getting that.

Although the figures are estimated percentage testing positive, not total testing positive, so it shouldn't be too sensitive to numbers of tests carried out.

It’s not possible to draw valid conclusions from that data alone. The “primary” age group spans 2-11 year olds so very different age ranges lumped together. Is this done by random sampling and extrapolated or is it drawn from pillar 2 testing?

@smilingthroughgrittedteeth

Surely it just represents that younger kids are asymptomatic and not being tested as much as teenagers

But this is the ONS testing where you are asked to test completely by random which is why it's a good reflection of actual infection rates rather than test and trace figures.

Yes this is the random sampling so the high testing of Uni students and low testing of primary students is irrelevant.

@Youandmeareluckytobeus yes Pareto! Almost feels like we're in Doctor Who story arc 🤔

You seem to be ignoring the increasing rise in the year 7 to year 11 group. It has doubled in a week!

Not at all ignoring it @mrshoho - most of the groups - except thankfully the 70+ -have seen rises. It's just comparing to the data when it's grouped as 10-19 as the PHE data it's a very different picture.

I'm sorry but I find the Y7 to Y11 group rates very concerning. If this coming week shows the same fast increase then what? The only glimmer is half term week is coming or already started.

Looking at the graphs it appears infection rates across all age groups similar except years 12 to age 24 at the highest followed by years 7 to 11.

@HelloitsmeMargaret

Not at all ignoring it *@mrshoho* - most of the groups - except thankfully the 70+ -have seen rises. It's just comparing to the data when it's grouped as 10-19 as the PHE data it's a very different picture.

And can you see how the y12 to 24 group levelled off last week whereas the y7 to y11 rose sharply.

Maybe it's more reassuring to me in comparison to the latest PHE report. Cases are rising there is no doubt but it doesn't look like schools are the cause of it.