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Leading Epidemiologist Update and the John Snow Memo

12 replies

johnsnowmemo · 16/10/2020 20:57

I am attaching for those who want some up to date info about what the leading scientists and doctors are saying.

COVID-19 in 2021: What Can We Expect? 15 Oct 2020 At 12.55 he talks about the first generation vaccines on the way, and what protections current vaccines likely to give (up to this point he has given a summary of what we now know incl the fact that herd immunity is not a viable strategy) At 19.31 he speaks of government policy and adherence by people being key in controlling the disease. He describes distinguishing between science and pseudoscience and politics.

www.johnsnowmemo.com/#
2700 scientists, researchers and hcps have signed so far
Quote from the John Snow Memo which is being signed (the whole thing is worth reading deeply, Dr Leung says):

Although lockdowns have been disruptive, substantially affecting mental and physical health, and harming the economy, these effects have often been worse in countries that were not able to use the time during and after lockdown to establish effective pandemic control systems. In the absence of adequate provisions to manage the pandemic and its societal impacts, these countries have faced continuing restrictions.

This has understandably led to widespread demoralisation and diminishing trust. The arrival of a second wave and the realisation of the challenges ahead has led to renewed interest in a so-called herd immunity approach, which suggests allowing a large uncontrolled outbreak in the low-risk population while protecting the vulnerable. Proponents suggest this would lead to the development of infection-acquired population immunity in the low-risk population, which will eventually protect the vulnerable. This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence

Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed. Uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population. In addition to the human cost, this would impact the workforce as a whole and overwhelm the ability of healthcare systems to provide acute and routine care

Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection(4) and the endemic transmission that would be the consequence of waning immunity would present a risk to vulnerable populations for the indefinite future. Such a strategy would not end the COVID-19 pandemic but result in recurrent epidemics, as was the case with numerous infectious diseases before the advent of vaccination.

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BlueBlancmange · 16/10/2020 21:44

While it sounds very likely that there will be a vaccine and that is promising, it is disappointing that most of them will not stop transmission, but rather just reduce disease severity. I wonder if, in that case, they will prevent Long Covid and lasting damage, since this can occur with initially mild disease.

BlueBlancmange · 16/10/2020 22:12

However he did say one of the vaccine candidates might provide sterilising immunity and I assume therefore prevent transmission. If that does turn out to be the case, won't we be trying to vaccinate as many people as possible with that one?

lljkk · 17/10/2020 06:24

Will there be lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination?

PracticingPerson · 17/10/2020 06:30

I understand why so many people are struggling to process how tricksy this virus is and what an impact it is having on our lives. But I'm very frustrated the twin pillars of total bullshit - herd immunity and shield the vulnerable - just come back again and again.

I'm really worried we've messed up bigly in the UK by doing exactly what this says - lockdown but didn't use the time to put control measures in place.

johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 10:45

@lljkk it is complicated - it would be better if you listened to the whole video, as he covers various different things, including the fact that we are looking at first generation vaccines at the moment, the state of knowledge about immunity, that although not perfect the first generation vaccines will be a significant step forward in getting back to normality. It is worth getting it all from the horse's mouth so to speak.

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lljkk · 17/10/2020 11:46

I'll take that as a "No" then.

johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 11:54

It isn't a yes or no answer, lljkk. They are looking at first generation vaccines at the moment and carrying on research and development after that. The area of immunity is very much still under research.

The epidemiologist in the video is much more patient than I am by nature, and inspired by him I will watch the bit of the video for you and come back with a more accurate explanation.

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johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 11:55

@PracticingPerson I agree, I have the same worry

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johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 12:21

@lljkk the current vaccines are first generation ie current state of research, R and D continues, they are going through final approvals now - none of these ones other than one (possibly) provide sterilising immunity ie would not stop you getting covid or transmission but would protect you from dying/being hospitalised for serious complications arising from the infection. So a black and white answer for you if you needed it, would be "not yet I think depending on the one exception he mentioned but didn't go into details about" but my take away is that the 1st gen vaccines could be effective to reduce the status of the disease to something more manageable, like other coronaviruses.

NB there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection according to current state of research. As i understand it, immunity is one of the difficult aspects of this disease.

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BlueBlancmange · 17/10/2020 12:39

I would like to know whether they expect the vaccines to prevent lasting damage or Long Covid since these can arise following an initially mild infection.

johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 13:08

blueblancmange - that would have been a good question in the webinar I think! I don't know the answer, but the disease affects the veins and it is when it gets into the lungs out of control it kills - as you say, people with initially minor infection have been found to have lung and heart damage - if it is the same thing which caused the issues which can lead to severe illness/death then hopefully yes?

Basically the answer is out there probably - he mentioned some other articles and scientists and twitter feeds which continuous updates and you could investigate via that way. And more information will be available over time.

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johnsnowmemo · 17/10/2020 13:20

And it is another reason why people saying "but the young don't get it seriously..." are thought to be way off the wrong track. The young may be suffering silent damage to their veins and vital organs which will affect them as time goes on. So yes... like you I hope that the vaccines is targeting this sort of risk.

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