Pessimism regarding a vaccine

[BlueBlancmange]

I realise that any initial vaccine is unlikely to be a silver bullet, but as far as I know most experts in the field sound optimistic that we will get something at least partially efficacious reasonably soon and that the situation will start to improve as a result. And yet there seem to be a lot of people who believe there will not be one at all. They come on here and proclaim that it is probably just not going to be possible to come up with one due to, among other reasons, antibodies not lasting and the fact there has not been a vaccine for a human Coronavirus before.

If the science world was reflecting this scenario, I would understand, but as far as I can see it isn't. Therefore I don't understand why some people are so adamant that they know there will never be a vaccine. Does any one have any links to scientific research that shows a vaccine is unlikely?

The recent thing I read mentioned it could be like a flu vaccine, so maybe 50% coverage and not as high in older people (due to not so strong an immune response) however I'm unsure how much of that was the same with other vaccines in general with older people.

Some people are just being realistic, as they see it. Others are just revelling in the misery and want to pile on any vague suggestion that there might be light at the end of the tunnel.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine

The explains some of the issues

And yet there seem to be a lot of people who believe there will not be one at all.

I think some might be people who don’t want to be disappointed, don’t want to be their hopes up etc. It’s easier to think it won’t happen and be pleased than think it will and be disappointed

I think that there will eventually be one, but by that time there won't be much interest in it. It will be like the flu vaccine, advised for the vulnerable.

Some people think that the Pandemic ends with a mass vaccination of the population, but I think we'll be well into herd immunity by infection by that point.

@Frazzled13

And yet there seem to be a lot of people who believe there will not be one at all.

I think some might be people who don’t want to be disappointed, don’t want to be their hopes up etc. It’s easier to think it won’t happen and be pleased than think it will and be disappointed

I think you're right that this is one reason.

Because it gives them license to carry on as normal.

There is a vaccine, they're just finishing up the testing on it

People don’t understand that it doesn’t need to have total coverage to work. They see 50% and think that means half the people will die rather than realising that we don’t need it to work in anything like 100% of people to get the R below 1 and thus make the epidemic end.

@Redolent

Because it gives them license to carry on as normal.

Yes this does appear to be a phenomenon among people who just want to get back to normal right now. But there are also people at the other extreme who seem to believe that there'll never be a vaccine and so we'll be living a 'new normal' of continued lockdowns, social distancing and masks for years, if not decades, to come.

@Orangeblossom7777

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine

The explains some of the issues

That article is from May and things have moved on a lot since then (to be honest I'd say it was fairly pessimistic when it was written!)

I think for some people it makes it easier if they manage their expectations, for others it's "fake news" and for some people I think that it's the idea that if a vaccine is a long way off then lockdowns etc are pointless and an attempt at natural herd immunity is the way to go.

I'm incredibly positive about a vaccine and have been since day 1. I've read every article, watched every webinar and nothing I've seen has made me feel less positive. I really think it's only a matter of time (and not really that much time to be honest).

I didn't think it was that pessimistic but more realistic about it being more of a seasonal thing like flu vaccine perhaps.

There are already vaccines. China has a few, Russia has one, we have two , us has a few too plus other countries.

I also think there are people who read and interpret the worst of everything, including science. Incomplete reading would tell you that other vaccines take much longer to develop. But this pandemic is seeing the biggest ever cooperation between academia, pharma, medics and regulators/governments, not to mention that we were already part way through development due to earlier viruses. People could tell you that we've never developed a vaccine for coronavirus before. But the real world tells us it was never necessary or cost effective to do so (plus there are many animal coronavirus vaccines). People still say 'there is no vaccine for HIV remember', even HIV is a completely different kind of virus that behaves in completely different ways. Another one is 'the virus will mutate', because flu does, but again, this is not a flu virus and isn't behaving in the same way.

The biggest negative narrative regarding the likelihood of a vaccine tends to come from people who appear to not have acknowledged or considered all data and information, along with crucial context, in coming to their opinions. There is much clinging onto a 'fact' of some kind without any consideration of whether it is truly relevant.

@Deliaskis

I also think there are people who read and interpret the worst of everything, including science. Incomplete reading would tell you that other vaccines take much longer to develop. But this pandemic is seeing the biggest ever cooperation between academia, pharma, medics and regulators/governments, not to mention that we were already part way through development due to earlier viruses. People could tell you that we've never developed a vaccine for coronavirus before. But the real world tells us it was never necessary or cost effective to do so (plus there are many animal coronavirus vaccines). People still say 'there is no vaccine for HIV remember', even HIV is a completely different kind of virus that behaves in completely different ways. Another one is 'the virus will mutate', because flu does, but again, this is not a flu virus and isn't behaving in the same way.

The biggest negative narrative regarding the likelihood of a vaccine tends to come from people who appear to not have acknowledged or considered all data and information, along with crucial context, in coming to their opinions. There is much clinging onto a 'fact' of some kind without any consideration of whether it is truly relevant.

Yes I don't really get the HIV comparison at all. They could just as easily say, well there is a vaccine for measles so there is bound to be one for Covid. Neither really has any bearing.

It seems on MN that the people who have continually demanded to end restrictions and just get back to normal are the same ones saying people are crazy to think that a successgul vaccine will become available. To me it makes sense that there will be a vaccine in the UK next year and we need to continue to slow the infection rates until then.