Why no lockdown?

[UndertheCedartree]

I have to say as time goes on I get moreand more confused about what's happening with Covid.

From what has been said those in hospital with Covid is at the same level it was in April. So why did we lockdown then and not now?

Also as an aside I'm presuming the quarantine rules when coming in from Spain will be with us til after the winter? I haven't seen my parents in 10 months and was hoping they could come over for Christmas.

I think the theory is we have more “Covid secure” places now. And better test and trace which we didn’t before which reduces r number. Although the reality isn’t really like that. But that’s the theory !

Thank you @Chickenandrice

because we can't afford another lockdown which costs billions and achieves nothing but kick the can down the road

We locked down then because we didn't know enough about covid to know how we could cope with it as a society. Now we do. We know how deadly it is or isn't, we know how to treat it and how to reduce the risks of transmitting it.

But kicking the can down the road is why we have lockdown.

It temporarily takes the pressure off the hospitals until they can cope again. So lockdowns are actually designed to delay things thereby ‘kicking the can down the road’

Basically we can't afford it.

We do have more knowledge of the virus and better treatment methods, and testing/ ppi/ covid safe strategies in place. So even though the numbers are as high, the overall situation isn't quite as bad as March, but not far off. I think we probably will need to lockdown again at some point, but at the minute they're doing things on the cheap, possibly saving money for whenever really really need to lockdown.

well SAGE advised a total lockdown 3 weeks ago but the advice has not been acted on, for the sake of the economy

the death toll will now be catastrophic

Well Boris said yesterday we don’t want to have a national lockdown right now. Which probably means having one in a week or two.

I think basically, the I'm-alright-jack brigade who don't face losing their jobs and potentially homes if we have another period of prolonged lockdown are in favour of such a course of action. The rest of us - you know, those with families to feed and who would ideally prefer to keep a roof over our heads - would prefer to take our chances, thanks.

While the numbers in hospital might be the same the world is very different. We have better treatments and way different rules and guidance now

A total lockdown would ruin the country now, posters above have explained the purpose of total lockdown, I'm a little surprised that people don't know that after over 200 days since we started this.

Ruining the country with lockdown destroys the NHS and will devestate public health for a decade at least.

Poor health is and always is. The waiting lists and treatments for everything else were lengthy a year ago and are growing all the time. It will be tough enough for public health to recover without having a crippled financial system exacerbating it.

Lockdown creates nice short term numbers about how many lives we potentially saved, but it's a false economy and the real differences are slow to quantify.

Delaying cancer diagnosis and treatments will have an effect on excess mortality for the next 5 years.

Thank you everyone for your thoughts.

It will just lengthen things and spread out the infection
Back to not overwhelming the NHS at any one point in time
Unless their is a reliable vaccine just as many people will be infected - just as many deaths but spread out for longer
Then add in all the extra unnecessary deaths from unrelated issues, late diagnosis, late treatment, suicide and worsening mental health

I don't know where the hospital admissions the same as in March is coming from

This is the actual data

@hamstersarse - Boris said it at the announcement last night. Thanks for the data.

@toxtethOgradyUSA

I think basically, the I'm-alright-jack brigade who don't face losing their jobs and potentially homes if we have another period of prolonged lockdown are in favour of such a course of action. The rest of us - you know, those with families to feed and who would ideally prefer to keep a roof over our heads - would prefer to take our chances, thanks.

You could make the opposite argument in the same terms: The I'm-all-right-Jack brigade who don't face a high risk of serious illness or death and haven't been told they're low priority for treatment will be in favour of no lock down. The rest of us -you know, those with loved ones to care for who would ideally like to keep alive -would prefer more effectivre restrictions, thanks. Not saying which side I'm on, just that it's not as clear cut as "all decent and sensible people are against a lockdown and it's only the selfish well off who want one".

@hamstersarse

I don't know where the hospital admissions the same as in March is coming from

This is the actual data

Well, that's about right, isn't it? The lockdown started on 22 March or thereabouts. And the height of the graph at the extreme LHS, at start of lockdown, is the same as the height at the extreme RHS.

Are you still falling into the trap of trying to make logical sense of it all?

Don't care, as long as the children are at school.
!

Because of false economy. People and the government think the economy can’t take another lockdown hence having this half baked confusing restrictions. Dragging on in this manner for many more months is not economy friendly either, just a different pace.

I think we are not having a lock down now because we have a world-class test, track and isolate system in place.

@ACautionaryTale

because we can't afford another lockdown which costs billions and achieves nothing but kick the can down the road

Lockdown or death by a thousand cuts with restrictions like tier 3. Not much of a choice without an effective test and trace.

Partly because the virus is spreading a lot less rapidly than in March, which gives us more time and more flexibility. R number is 1.4 or something now, was probably 3-4 or even higher the week before lockdown.

Whether anyone wants to acknowledge it or not, the death rate is significantly lower now than it was.

True across Europe, taking account of ‘lags’ and across all age groups.

SAGE advised brief total lockdown three weeks ago. Government ignored this.

We are pawns in a a dangerous game.