Whitty and his predictions

[avenueq]

It's being said everywhere now that Sage and Whitty wanted a full two week lockdown three weeks ago and were overruled,
but if that was based on the graphs they presented at the time have they not already been proved wrong? They said we'd be at close to 50000 infections a day by now... but we're not!!

I’m pretty sure we are close to 50k infections a day it’s just our testing is so crap we’re not finding them.

Are rates are higher than the reported 12-17,000.

But that aside. He said 'if we do nothing', but we didn't 'do nothing'

We didn't 'do enough', but it wasn't nothing.

UK tests more than other European countries

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54181291

They said 50,000 cases per day by November. You are referring to number of positive tests but that is not the same thing.

Also they said by November we'd have 100 deaths per day. We are looking like we'll get there early.

Whitty and Valance were right.

I don't understand wtf the government is doing.

[quote avenueq]UK tests more than other European countries

[[https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54181291]][/quote]
Yes but we do scatter gun testing. Also our counting is dodgy as we count tests sent out, not tests processed.

They said 200 deaths a day by November.

@avenueq

They said 200 deaths a day by November.

Oh yes sorry.

But if we double again we'll be at 170 won't we by next week? So I don't see your point.

It’s not November yet!

If I recall, Whitty showed various scenarios and the implications if the worst one held out.

He is a scientist, not the oracle at Delphi, and knows the limitations of forecasting.

What he can and does do is advise the government how to protect against worst case scenarios.

I do feel sorry for people like Whitty trying to explain confidence intervals and uncertainty to a largely scientifically illiterate population.

Whitty said 50000 cases per day and 200 deaths by late October if nothing was done. Things are being done so that prediction looks out which is a good thing. We also test more than most of Europe

That testing information is revealing. If you listened to the media chirping on every day you would think we weren’t testing at all. Another example of the media being very unhelpful during this crisis. That data at least puts my mind at rest we are testing people.

SAGE have said our testing system is virtually useless in terms of stopping the spread.

People who are reassured by our testing are not understanding what is going wrong with our test, trace and isolate system.

I am not sure we do test more than most other countries , because aren't we also counting tests sent out but not necessarily completed and antibody tests in our numbers ? @sashagabadon

Good on the government for keeping the schools open!
The virus is here and spreading, lock yourselves in your houses if you like, no-one is stopping you!

Yes @frumpety, our numbers are dodgy.

Also, test turnaround times are very long in the UK, so by the time the positive result is back the tracing is a) much harder and b) less effective as it has already spread beyond immediate contacts, to their further contacts.

UK test and trace has failed. The government gave £12billion to companies with no experience, they put a Tory peer with no experience in charge, and the money has gone down the drain.

People in ICU today might not even have got the virus if test and trace was working properly last month.

I feel scared by what a mess testing is in, but it is the reality sadly.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in these meetings. Whitty and Valance wanting full lockdown, Rishi not wanting a lockdown at all due to the economy and Boris in the middle. I wouldn’t want their jobs at the moment.

[quote avenueq]UK tests more than other European countries

[[https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/54181291]][/quote]
More propaganda. We don’t actually test and report on more tests. We spin the counting. We count the tests posted out including non returns and failed tests to individuals and centres.
Many people not testing for fear of having to isolate and lose their money.
£12 billion on a failing system run by a jockey.

Failing to adhere or follow SAGE guidance. Prioritising Tory constituencies.

I really like Chris Whitty, yes he's very serious, but it's a very serious situation. I think for the most part what he says is very sensible and broadly right.

Trouble is it's really difficult to do the right thing without destroying the economy. I think you're right, Whitty on one side, Rishi on the other and Boris in the middle doing half a job trying to keep them both happy.

I used to be very sceptical of the predicted spread (not the existence of the disease I just want to make that clear, I have always known it is real, and I still don't think the severity warrants the restrictions) but once it gets in a group it spreads like wildfire.
I am a TA at a school with 22 staff, it got into our school about a month ago and despite distancing, staff room out of bounds, no mixing of bubbles, extra toilet cleaning, no sharing crockery or cutlery now 16 of us have had it, tested and confirmed.
16 out of 22 from using the same (cleaned between uses) toilet and crossing in corridors. We have all had it mildly including older and EVC but still we have had it, I can easily see how they expect such high numbers. Interestingly despite lots of tests we haven't had a single confirmed case in a child.

The problem isn't the number of tests being done. It's the time taken to get results back. That is where it is failing. There is little point in getting a positive result a week after symptoms start. By that point any contacts of that person have potentially been spreading it for a week, whereas if results came back as they are meant to within 24 hours the spread could be contained. Until that is put right we are never going to get a grip of it without resorting to lockdown.

There were commentaries from other scientists at the time that Doom and Gloom’s charts were way off as the progress would be linear rather than exponential as they’d said. But people on here will never think that CW could ever not be right about something, he has some sort of god like status on here.

What annoys me is that they implement the rules, we haven’t ended up where they said, and it’s still not fucking enough and they keep expecting more and more restrictions and fuck people’s jobs and livelihoods. Totally out of touch with reality.

I'm sure Vallance and Whitty said again and again in that briefing that the figures shown were illustrations, not predictions - showing how the virus behaved and how easily it could move to big numbers from a standing start.

@PracticingPerson

They said 50,000 cases per day by November. You are referring to number of positive tests but that is not the same thing.

Also they said by November we'd have 100 deaths per day. We are looking like we'll get there early.

Whitty and Valance were right.

I don't understand wtf the government is doing.

They said 50k cases by 13 October with those translating to 200 deaths a day a month later

The forecast was before Rule of Six. So if he don't reach 200 deaths a day etc it's presumably because of the changes in the rules since that broadcast.

BillywilliamV you sound sociopathic.

Witty et al are basically correct. Its the principle or the logic if you like.....no one can "predict" absolute numbers, surely its a range. So you could say if we do nothing by the first week of Nov 180 to 240 will die, but it makes better sense to use the mathematics in the modelling, present the modelling and say 200 deaths a day. No one can say with absolute accuracy "by Nov 7th and on Nov 7th we will have 201 deaths. There are far too many contingent factors.

The principle is this, if we do nothing to halt the transmission of this virus, cases and deaths will rise exponentially. That is what the modelling predicts. You can point to individuals and shout them down, discredit their theories, try to prove their modelling is wrong but to have any credibility you would have to present a different proof. Its not sufficient to simply say "you are wrong"

I predict by mid Nov we shall be seeing 1000 plus deaths a day. I also predict lots of people will start to panic and suddenly "life must go on" won't be reduced to the economy must limp forward.