Cobra Meeting: Tier 3 restrictions not enough to bring the R number down?

[Badbanana]

Just saw on the BBC news a clip of Nicola Sturgeon saying that at the cobra meeting it was widely accepted that the ‘minimum level’ (I.e what is planned?) of tier 3 would NOT be enough to reduce the R number.

Am I wrong in thinking what is the bloody point then?

Instead of death by a thousand cuts for absolutely no gain then either don’t bother at all or, shock horror, come up with measures that actually will reduce the r number.

I know the economy/mental health/ overrunning of the NHS all has to be balanced.

But why bother with harmful measures at all when there will not be enough benefit?

I thought I read something saying the North would be in tier 2 not 3.

Well if the restrictions in tier 3 would be unable to control the r number...what hope would tier 2 have?

So again, pointless damage for no gain.

Nicola Sturgeon is fortunate in that she doesn’t have to worry about the economy because she will be bailed out by the U.K. government and she does not have to fund public services through her tax take.

Boris Johnson and the government (I’m not fans of them) like it or not have to balance COVID with the millions of other risks out there from the economy to mental health and domestic abuse that are exasperated by lockdown.

The only restriction that will bring the R number down sufficiently is closing schools (and if that is done no other additional restrictions are necessary). Unfortunately the government failed to understand the size of the spread in schools over the summer and made promises that schools will be prioritised which is now causing major issues.

Boris Johnson and the government (I’m not fans of them) like it or not have to balance COVID with the millions of other risks out there from the economy to mental health and domestic abuse that are exasperated by lockdown

My point is that if this is true, then these measures are in no way balanced.

If there is no benefit to these measures, and they won’t reduce the r number..,then they are just economically damaging and for no good reason at all.

With only 8% of the workforce with children of school age wouldn’t it be better for the economy to leave hospitality and business alone?

@StatisticalSense

The only restriction that will bring the R number down sufficiently is closing schools (and if that is done no other additional restrictions are necessary). Unfortunately the government failed to understand the size of the spread in schools over the summer and made promises that schools will be prioritised which is now causing major issues.

Or the pubs and restaurants. The numbers started going up once they opened. Why not closed the pubs / restaurants and ban any mixing households. Aw yes. Cuz many of the adults won’t follow the rules. So less kill the education of thousands of kids and make at the same time their parents life difficult with needing to juggle again kids and working life so that the adults can still go to the pub with their 5 different friends

Did it go up when bars and restaurants opened?

There wasn’t much rise over the summer when people were piled upon each other outside on beaches, bars and restaurants were open, people on holiday in the UK etc.

Seemed to rocket up in September a few weeks after schools opened though...

@EasterIssland
That is simply factually wrong. Cases didn't start going up until long after the pubs reopened.

I don't see anything he's saying making a difference at all. He has to close the schools, or at least ensure social distancing within schools by doing a week on a week off before he can bring the R rate down. It's madness.

Well yes that is why I was so concerned.

If it is as Nicola Sturgeon said and it was widely accepted in the Cobra meeting that these measures are useless, then what the bloody hell are they up to?

Why? Why go through with these economically damaging measures when they already know that it won’t work?

Do they need to waste time letting the public see that they don’t work first before actually doing something unpopular that does?

No mixing with other households and pubs/bars to close for the very high risk areas. If that's it then it doesn't seem enough to stop it.

Agree it is easier to lockdown harder if you don’t have to balance funding / economic considerations

[quote StatisticalSense]@EasterIssland
That is simply factually wrong. Cases didn't start going up until long after the pubs reopened.[/quote]
I just searched covid cases uk chart in google

Beginning of July 500 cases a day
Beginning of August 1k a day.
Beginning of September 2k a day

They might have not gone as high but def it’s affected. And yes. Hospitality pays a lot of families food and bills but some of them aren’t managing it well

My in laws last month they were in a pub in Swansea that have had 8 members of staff tested positive. And yet it was opened. Something like this happens in a school and it’d have been closed.

What’s happened to the 3tier system for schools? Gone quietly away. Surely this should be implemented alongside the new 3tier system ie new tier 3 should be tier 3 for schools? That problem makes far too much logical sense for the government to follow!

@Badbanana

Well yes that is why I was so concerned.

If it is as Nicola Sturgeon said and it was widely accepted in the Cobra meeting that these measures are useless, then what the bloody hell are they up to?

Why? Why go through with these economically damaging measures when they already know that it won’t work?

Do they need to waste time letting the public see that they don’t work first before actually doing something unpopular that does?

Because they need to pretend that they are taking measurements. And because they need to do something (and the public follow the rules) and not go beyond not to kill the economy

It's a bit like he didnt believe in maths which is really quite ironic given his obsession with keeping schools open.
The r was 1 when he opened schools add on the 0.5 for the schools...!
It's like the thought that wouldn't count at all because they are children.
Also i assume you mean exacerbate?
R didnt seem to go up with pubs.
Also though
Millions were abroad
Lot were likely sitting outside.
There seemed fewer stupid people pub crawling.
Then they pub crawled after returning from abroad when supposed to be isolating.
The issue is the lack of reaction to changing circumstances.
Eg when people returned from italy, when it looked like covid was even worse the gov didnt react.
When it was clear lots had returned from abroad infected we could have delayed the start of term or gone straight to part time for secondary. They had the plans for that but it didnt happen.v
Tbh hospitality are being a bit sill y if they refuse to close because as the hospitals get full noone will want to go anyway. As why would they take an older person off oxygen say to replace with a younger one who knew the situation and went ahead.
I dont think they would need to close schools as if hospitals fill up any sensible person that can wouldnt send their kid as even if there is a tiny chance of dying usually it would be fatal for even young people who did need oxygen. So the % needing o2 is the figure to look at not fatalities as that is with healthcare.

@Badbanana

With only 8% of the workforce with children of school age wouldn’t it be better for the economy to leave hospitality and business alone?

I agree. Go remote with the schools and save the economy for the children’s future. Education doesn’t have to take place at a desk in school.