If less than 0.01% of the population are testing positive in the worst hit areas

[Marcellemouse]

What do you think are the actual numbers of people with CV? It seems such a small proportion of people, and that's in the very worst hit cities.

Any links? I'm interested to read more.

The worst case cities have infection rates of over 500 per 100,000 people though which is 0.5%?

I thought this was the rate of new infections over a week though and given you have to self isolate for 14 days minimum doesn't that mean that over 1% will have it at any one time plus of course they figure may be higher as some people have no symptoms can't get a test and take longer than 2 weeks to recover even if they are not infectious.

@Marcellemouse

From ONS "During the most recent week (25 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate that 6,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 14,600), equating to 1 in 500 people (95 % credible interval: 1 in 1,600 to 1 in 200)."

So this represents 2 weeks ago approx.This would be a rate of 0.5% as someone else suggested.

However, with exponential increase, this figure could well be double that, or even higher now.

And of course we have further exponential increases to come.

So actually, quite a significant proportion then.

As POs have said, you are looking at the new case numbers.

In many ways case numbers are no longer that useful. What matters is how many people are getting serious cases requiring critical care compared to how many we can accommodate.

That number is rising much faster than anticipated and importantly will rise all winter.

Currently if Covid is treated the death rate is low. As soon as we can no longer put people on oxygen immediately that symptoms become serious, deaths will spike.

Additionally once emergency capacity is substantially exceeded hospitals will be back to only treating emergencies and the economy will tank.

Should be PPs, not POs.

That makes much more sense now thanks. Maths was never my strong point!

1 in 500 is 0.2% not 0.5%.
Very considerably lower.

But in the "worst hit areas" which the op is posting about the infection estimates were 1 in 100 which is "very considerably" higher.