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Original poster

If 75% of people diagnosed are age 18-24, we're not going to have huge deaths

38 replies

Marcellemouse · 09/10/2020 20:26

Heard this earlier on the news. Three quarters of current positive cases are in the 18-24 year old age group. As these are mainly going to be asymptomatic or mild case we're probably not heading for an imminent NHS disaster. I know they can pass the virus on etc, but if vulnerable/ elderly take sensible precautions this could not be as bad as it seems.

OP posts:
Janevaljane · 09/10/2020 20:27

I agree but I hope you have your flameproof suit on OP.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:32

Err parents, co workers, grandparents, teachers, school staff (and their families), university and college staff.... that's who this age range will pass it on to. They are the ones who will get sick. Lots of 18-24 year olds work in care homes too..

Bumble84 · 09/10/2020 20:32

Not yet, give it time and unfortunately it will filter through to the older age groups. In fact it’s already started happening in some areas. Yes the elderly and vulnerable can take precautions but they cannot avoid it completely unfortunately and with cases rising it’s getting even harder to avoid it.

Janevaljane · 09/10/2020 20:34

Most students aren't seeing anyone but their peers. No uni staff, no parents or grandparents.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:35

Dr Duncan Robertson's projected heat map showing spread across age ranges.

If 75% of people diagnosed are age 18-24, we're not going to have huge deaths
monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:37

@Janevaljane really? Some uni students live at home, not all are holed up in halls. Some are walking round asymptomatic. 16-18/19 is 6th form age too. Not all 19-24 are in uni as well.

Janevaljane · 09/10/2020 20:40

I'm talking about uni students living away from home. If they live at home they could quite easily not mix with any other students as they'll be online anyway.

Sunflowers247 · 09/10/2020 20:41

Most Uni students live away from their families, among other young people. Most are asymptomatic! Let them get on with it!

BogRollBOGOF · 09/10/2020 20:42

@Janevaljane

Most students aren't seeing anyone but their peers. No uni staff, no parents or grandparents.
The optomistic side of me that hasn't been completely quashed yet hopes that for this reason, the student wave will settle in a few weeks with low collateral damage.

When I scan the local news reports on schools, the vast majority are one or two cases suggesting that super spreader events are not widely occuring within schools. The child/ parent risk is higher than child/ teacher.

Improving immunity in the younger end of the population will long term benefit the older/ more vulnerable population as fewer people will spread it.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:42

Not everyone is at uni in that age group... many of those in that age group if they are at uni are not in halls and living in house shares with greater community access. Blimey you are really only thinking about a smallish percentage of 18-24 year olds.. I'd already been teaching for 3 years by the time I was 24.

Janevaljane · 09/10/2020 20:43

So who are these students in close contact with? Supermarket staff? Bar staff? My dc doesn't get near any uni staff! Online and maybe the odd socially distanced lecture.

Risotto4tea · 09/10/2020 20:43

I work in a care home. We have plenty of staff that age. They are all great staff and super flexible as many dont have kids yet and still live with mum and dad so pick up extra shifts. BUT they want to do what every 18-24 yr olds want to do see friends, go out etc. They will soon pass it on and worse if they dont have symptoms we will only know once their weekly test comes back (which are currently taking 3/4 days) too late then

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:44

@Risotto4tea

I work in a care home. We have plenty of staff that age. They are all great staff and super flexible as many dont have kids yet and still live with mum and dad so pick up extra shifts. BUT they want to do what every 18-24 yr olds want to do see friends, go out etc. They will soon pass it on and worse if they dont have symptoms we will only know once their weekly test comes back (which are currently taking 3/4 days) too late then
Exactly. My DS is in a care home, many of his carers (wonderful people that they are!) are that age.
HarveySchlumpfenburger · 09/10/2020 20:47

As long as we isolate the 18-24 year olds from the rest of society I’m sure it will be fine.

Banning them from workplaces, pubs, restaurants and from having contact with friends and family over 25 should be enough. I suppose you could have 18-24 nights in pubs or shopping hours specifically for that age range too.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:47

@Janevaljane

So who are these students in close contact with? Supermarket staff? Bar staff? My dc doesn't get near any uni staff! Online and maybe the odd socially distanced lecture.
Lucky uni staff, wish it was the same for us at secondary level...
If 75% of people diagnosed are age 18-24, we're not going to have huge deaths
BogRollBOGOF · 09/10/2020 20:49

@monkeytennis97

Not everyone is at uni in that age group... many of those in that age group if they are at uni are not in halls and living in house shares with greater community access. Blimey you are really only thinking about a smallish percentage of 18-24 year olds.. I'd already been teaching for 3 years by the time I was 24.
18-24 year olds in the working community rather than the student community were probably more exposed than those who haven't been working or studying for 6 months. The surge is very much concentrated in neighbourhoods with high student populations, and those living in halls/ group accommodation are in a perfect petri dish for viral spread like care homes had been in the early stages.

Some universities are testing around their student population which is exposing assymptomatic cases that would have passed under the radar in the regular community.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 20:52

@BogRollBOGOF yes that makes sense and of course containment will be better within student population than it was in February/March due to testing but the virus will find a way to get out of these age groups. Perhaps these uni lockdowns for those in halls are just holding back the virus from the community for a bit.

Original poster
Marcellemouse · 09/10/2020 20:59

Resoursces should go towards protection of the vulnerable instead of shutting down hospitality and paying furlough.

OP posts:
monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 21:03

@Marcellemouse

Resoursces should go towards protection of the vulnerable instead of shutting down hospitality and paying furlough.
Agree and some of it could go towards supporting blended learning for the 14plus age group at secondary level which would make schools safer for community transmission.
FreshFreesias · 09/10/2020 21:03

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

monkeytennis97 · 09/10/2020 21:05

Nice. Looks like I'm a bedwetter then. Having raised a severely disabled child I'll pass on that nomenclature cheers.

Downton57 · 09/10/2020 21:09

@FreshFreesias are you Trump?

Bluntness100 · 09/10/2020 21:13

Op logically you have a point. If anyone vulnerable takes precautions and the virus flows through the young, then no we will not have a large amount of deaths.

The key factor here however is the vulnerable need to self protect or be protected.

Right now though the death rates do not correlate to the case numbers as they did in April on.

SueEllenMishke · 09/10/2020 21:18

@Janevaljane

I'm talking about uni students living away from home. If they live at home they could quite easily not mix with any other students as they'll be online anyway.
Not entirely true. We have a high number of commuter students at my university and we're offering quite a bit of f2f on campus teaching
Lockdownseperation · 09/10/2020 21:21

It’s a case of simple maths. If 10,000 people are infected then 2,500 won’t be in that age group. If 10 million people are infected than 2.5 million people won’t be in that age group.
But actually it’s more complicated than that. Those people in that age bracket will start passing it on even more people and people outside of that age group maybe infected in an increasing ratio.