If CV is rampant in schools, will there be herd immunity in them soon?

[Marcellemouse]

If loads of DC have CV and are asymptomatic do you think more of them have it than we think? If so could this mean school are likely to be much 'safer' and less disrupted soon?

Some universities were 1/10 symptoms so that would only be 3 in a class of 30.

One school did have 40 in 1140 think think.

Op I think the term herd immunity was bandied around early on when not much was known about covid.

We know more and it seems that people are getting re infected.

Like the common cold,like flu.. There is no herd immunity.

So no. I don't think exposing everyone will work because its a different type of virus.

Herd immunity is our only hope

@AlecTrevelyan006

Herd immunity is our only hope

Herd immunity without a vaccine is a fallacy.

Oh dear Alec, better hope for a vaccine then.

The misinformation on this thread is mind-boggling.

If you think that immunity only lasts 2 months, then how do you think a vaccine is going to work? A vaccine trains the immune system in a safe way, for example using a deactivated virus. If the immune system forgets about the virus after 2 months, then it will forget regardless of the method of infection.

In SARS_1 antibodies were detected for 2 years but T-cell immunity lasts up to 17 years (2003 to today).

Also flu is very different. It can mutate very easily because the structure of its DNA allows it to recombine with other different flus. This is the reason that the flu vaccine is modified every year - they look to see what all the latest combinations are in the Southern hemisphere over our summer/their winter, and then design it accordingly. Coronaviruses are different and although they can mutate very slowly, they can't swap sections of DNA like flu does.

@starfro is there a non scientist guide to what you describe. I find it fascinating

As a science teacher I thank you for your public service

@starfro

Well as there are still huge amounts of money being pumped into vaccine development I guess the scientists and governments are not quite ready to give up on any element of herd immunity just yet! )although I still think it is too limited in school spread to happen in most educational settings!)

I hope so! Spain seem to be on the downward trend after their second wave, I don't think they went back into full lockdown/school closures again either? The graph on worldometer looks positive

No there won't be herd immunity in schools, because of the now very large evidence base that young children are much less likely to catch covid that adults, on a sliding scale until they are adults. So prevalence in primary schools will be around 25-50% that in the community as primary aged children are 25-50% less likely to catch it. For God's sake mumsnet, stop going on about schools!! Look at universities and pubs!

[quote Teenageromance]@starfro is there a non scientist guide to what you describe. I find it fascinating[/quote]
The Naked Scientists are pretty good for explanations to non-scientists:

An interview about T-cell vs antibody immunity in Covid:

www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/coronavirus-t-cells-patients-missing-antibodies

Flu vaccination:

www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/how-are-flu-vaccines-made

@feelingverylazytodayfeeling - can you point to the studies you are using to support what you are saying. I am not aware of anyone demonstrating yet that herd immunity is achievable with corona atthis point, so I must have missed the studies you have seen.

ta

The idea of herd immunity without a vaccine is nigh impossible.
Less than 10% of people who have caught Covid have any long term resistance.

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-15/coronavirus-herd-immunity-unlikely-without-vaccine/12559298

theconversation.com/herd-immunity-wont-solve-americas-covid-19-problem-139724

@Wakeupalready, you're quoting from a newspaper article.

If you actually click through to the actual scientific paper, it states
"immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection is thought to be incomplete and temporary, lasting only several months to a few years"

And this was published in August, and scientists are constantly learning more!

Dunno about rampant or soon. I have DC at
Uni halls
military course
college
secondary school

No reports of any CV cases at in any of them.

Universities doing mass testing are uncovering about 90% asymptotic positives. Obviously places only testing people with symptoms, rates will appear different.

It would be interesting to mass test a sample of schools. Eg schools in low rate areas with no prior positive cases, schools with a couple of positive cases and schools who have had to shut due to so many positive cases. Looking at the infection rates in the different scenarios would be interesting. Also primary vs secondary.

The university mass testing rates are interesting, suggesting that as many as 90% of cases could be asymptomatic. Which could also be the same in schools, except university communities tend to be better defined than school ones (children bring illness home to household and other communities etc). I would love to have similar mass testing info for our local university back in Feb/March. I’m certain it was going around at that time and I’m sure I caught it from the students I was working with.

Testing in Manchester of a group of students showed over 40% were positive. At that rate of spread, early in the term, I would have thought that there will be a good chance of some level of herd protection within the student population.

I note that the uni towns with later term starts are not as blue on the map ( Bristol, Cambridge, Oxford for eg) but surely will follow.

Thanks for the sensible scientific comments @starfro and @feelingverylazytoday

There are also some interesting ideas in the scientific literature around potential cross immunity from other coronaviruses (making eventual illness less severe), and also general immune boosting from other vaccinations (and also possible partial immunity from the MMR vaccine). These mechanisms could be part of a story that makes sense in children being less unwell/less likely to show Covid symptoms

@cathyandclare

Testing in Manchester of a group of students showed over 40% were positive. At that rate of spread, early in the term, I would have thought that there will be a good chance of some level of herd protection within the student population.

I note that the uni towns with later term starts are not as blue on the map ( Bristol, Cambridge, Oxford for eg) but surely will follow.

Thanks for the sensible scientific comments @starfro and @feelingverylazytoday

Yes, I keep reading this as a negative, “shocking” etc but isn’t it a positive not least for those students. They are away from their families in halls for the most part and generally a symptomatic. I know not all students live in halls but it seems it is rampant in those that do specifically. It surely help unis get back to some kind of normal quicker than just one person catching it each week and everyone having to isolate each time which will go on forever and be hugely disruptive. Much better they all get it at once surely? What am I missing?

I think many students are accepting of the situation, certainly my DD and her housemates are. It'll be tough for the students who are vulnerable and the small percentage that get very unwell.

This is an interesting report on a paper published in Cell that looks at the different immune responses in COVID.

Antibodies don’t seem to play an important role in controlling acute COVID-19. Instead, T cells and helper T cells in particular are associated with protective immune responses

But they say that this is NOT necessarily bad news for a vaccine

it is plausible T cells are more important in natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, and antibodies more important in a COVID-19 vaccine, although it is also plausible that T cell responses against this virus are important in both cases.

www.lji.org/news-events/news/post/t-cells-take-the-lead-in-controlling-sars-cov-2-and-reducing-covid-19-disease-severity/

The university mass testing rates are interesting, suggesting that as many as 90% of cases could be asymptomatic.

I think it's great than young people are asymptomatic or only mildly affected. Cases are probably even higher as many don't get tested, seeing no need to do so!

It surely help unis get back to some kind of normal quicker than just one person catching it each week and everyone having to isolate each time which will go on forever and be hugely disruptive.

Yes, I hope so too.