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May the odds be ever in your favour..

29 replies

swg1 · 05/10/2020 10:03

For people who are struggling with "but if I'm doing X this already puts me at a large amount of risk so I might as well do Y", try thinking of it as the Hunger Games.

Every social interaction gives you a certain amount of slips. School gives you 30 slips daily. Going to work in an office, 20 slips daily. Going to the pub, 20 slips. Going to a crowded football match, 50 slips. Visiting a friend outdoors, 1 slip. Visiting a friend indoors, 3 slips. Everything has a price. And no, having a slip is not a death sentence - everyone is going to need a certain amount of slips to live.

The idea is not to reduce your slips to zero, it is to keep them generally down. So, the price of sending your kid to school every day? Probably worth it. But if you are also going to the pub, inviting all your mates back to your house and so forth, then the amount of accumulated slips becomes overwhelming and sooner or later the odds are not in your favour.

(It's worth noting that I suspect the problem with pubs is on average very little to do with pubs themselves but more to do with the fact that the average person walking into a crowded pub right now is less likely to be viewing risk this way. So each one of them will have a higher than normal amount of accumulated slips, they are more likely to be carrying it in, and having carried it in are more likely to be visiting other places where they can spread it. This is unfortunate as there is absolutely nothing the pubs can do to prevent this.)

OP posts:
Augustbreeze · 05/10/2020 15:13

Fab, I might have to create a display based on this idea for our school library except it'll have to be by email as no one's allowed in apart from one year group at the moment!

Nme8961 · 05/10/2020 16:33

@@ticklemewalnuts hit it bang on. I was very cautious and I think this next wave is going to be a massive disaster, so I'm not downplaying the seriousness of COVID, but once the kids started back in secondary schools I've given up. Spending all day in a school = so many slips there is no use worry about the others.

Say one child in school for one hour with no SD, masks, and poor ventilation with hundreds of other children = 200 slips.

200x 7 hours a day = 1400 slips per day
1400x5 days per week = 7000 slips per child
7000x2 children = 14000 slips per week for one family

Say spending 1 hour in a pub with a few dozen other people and basic SD (or at least those not in your party) = 150 slips

150x3 hours in the pub = 450 slips

If this family get COVID, it will be from schools not pubs. This is why closing the pubs to save the schools will not work.

OpheliasCrayon · 05/10/2020 16:50

I'm sorry what now?

picklemewalnuts · 05/10/2020 17:38

@Nme8961 Thanks

People's experiences are so different, their assessment of manageable risk will be too. I think that may be why there is so much anger between groups.

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