Latest Imperial study indicates R dropping substantially in England

[starfro]

They roughly estimate it is down from 1.7 in late August to 1.1 in late September.

Cases are high at 1 per 200 people.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54366478

Expert reaction to preprint with the latest interim data from the REACT-1 study on COVID-19 spread across England:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-with-the-latest-interim-data-from-the-react-1-study-on-covid-19-spread-across-england/

@CoffeeandCroissant

Thank you. This is valuable.

As has been pointed out before, R rate is only half the story, with the actual number of cases being significant too. Any R rate above 1 is going to be bad if the actual number of cases is high.

Worth also remembering those graphs from Whitty yesterday. If your area is badly affected, cases will be much more than 1 in 200. But if your area is not badly affected, cases will be much fewer.