Are we currently in a worse position now than March?

[Gobacktothe90s]

Just wondering whether people think we are in a worse position now than just before lockdown?
Testing was only done on people in March in hospitals so there is no accurate number of cases back then but now we have lots of people wanting tests but can't get one.

worse position in what way? deaths? cases?

i think we are more knowledgeable

No. It was endemic before lock down, the estimated number of cases was much higher than now (about 100,000 a day by some estimates), we are better at recognising symptoms (originally loss of smell wasn't included) and we are better at treating it (recognition that breathing difficulties aren't typical, better drug treatments, better ventilation options). We also have much more data about spread, incubation times etc.

I think we are in a much more informed position now.

I mean cases and the spread of the virus. The chance of getting it.
I live in local lockdown and it feels worse now than under lockdown as the messages about us being in a high risk area are constant.

virus wise we are in a much better position

in every other way we are in a much worse position

Yes I think in some ways it worse. I think Borris will let things get like they were in March then consider a full lockdown. Wales isn’t doing too good right now.

We know a bit more... but it doesn’t seem to be doing any good in terms of cases rising.

No, not yet. I think the actual number of cases per day was much worse in March, but we are certainly heading back in that direction again.

I think we are better in terms of the virus and what’s going on

What I am a bit concerned about is that they are basing measures on a curve that isn’t projected to happen. I’ve seen a few scientists suggesting that the curve isn’t growing exponentially the way Whitty and Vallance suggested and is more linear.

Madame what do you mean that they are saying it's spreading faster than it actually is?

@MadameBlobby

I think we are better in terms of the virus and what’s going on

What I am a bit concerned about is that they are basing measures on a curve that isn’t projected to happen. I’ve seen a few scientists suggesting that the curve isn’t growing exponentially the way Whitty and Vallance suggested and is more linear.

Whitty and Vallance didn't say it was growing exponentially. They merely explained what exponentially meant and the media completely misrepresented what they said (even though the graph they used for the demonstration said "THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION" on it and they repeated that throughout their talk. They said that IF it were growing exponentially we would be getting 50,000 cases a day by (a date that I can't remember) but that they didn't think that was going to happen because it's not exponential.

We certainly are in the north east, was rare to hear of anyone having covid. Yet now its spreading like wildfire

@Gobacktothe90s

Madame what do you mean that they are saying it's spreading faster than it actually is?

I am a bit tired so maybe crap at explaining but I think some scientists think that the projected exponential growth of 50k cases that led to us having more measures imposed wouldn’t happen as the curve doesn’t follow that and it’s not what happened in France or Spain. I think!!!

Thanks Fjord for clarifying, appreciate that :)

The exponential growth suggested by Whitty and Valance would be faster. If the virus is left on unchecked it will grow exponentially. If measures are in place this stops happening. Whitty and Valance don’t want to be right about the virus growing. They want to be wrong and for measures to be successful.

Their modelling will look at what happens without measures than the effect of each measure is applied. There will in effect be different models for the combination of scenarios.

The biggest problem we seem to have with Covid is optimism. A jump in cases is written off as a blip until it proves to be a pattern. Then it’s too late to stop rapid spread and we are fighting a bigger problem with ever more drastic and widespread restrictions.

In terms of financial assistance from the Government if things get terrible again I think we probably are in a worser situation because I believe they will say they warned us and it’s our fault.

In terms of knowing more about the virus we are probably better. We should also have a heads up. Should be able to act swifter and earlier.

It doesn’t look like there will be the same compliance with the rules that there was in March though unfortunately... then the government will be able to say it’s all our fault and little help will be given I think.

100% hope I am wrong though!

No not worse. Infections will be higher because there are more tests. However, deaths will be lower because doctors have learned how to treat it better

In March we had this massive iceberg of undetected cases, and thousands of Covid deaths being mis-categorised as Alzheimer's and Pneumonia etc. So the situation was vastly worse than the figures at the time made it look. Between 80 and 90% of the people who had it then were never ever tested but extrapolating back from the numbers of dead and hospitalised they think the peak was 100,000 new cases a day.

This time around the difficulty getting tests is artificially reducing the numbers of known cases, and the 28 day cut off plays down the deaths. However, just as in April and May the deaths still show as excess deaths (if they are over and above the expected number based on the last five years.

So this time, so far, the iceberg of undetected cases is quite a bit smaller.

This time, so far, it's doubling considerably slower than in March because of all the measures in place.

The doubling is the hallmark of exponential growth though, and sooner or later "the iron law of geometric progression" leads something quite slow and small looking to snowball into something huge and fast. (As we saw in April when suddenly 1200-1500 people were dying every day.)

At our current rate I think we'll be at that point again by Guy Fawkes night. (But measures can slow it down, absence of measures or non-compliance could speed it up) And if we allow things to get to that stage again there's not much that will help except a proper lockdown.

Finding the cases, testing contacts and isolating them properly would help enormously about now.

We are in as precarious a position.

Some things are better - we understand the virus and treatment is improved. We have more testing.

Some things are not good enough - test and trace primarily, and the government still seem chaotic.

Some things are worse - people are more prone to conspiracy theories and quite complacent. Also wider issues e.g. economy, poverty, housing loss are all worse.

Winter is expected to be worse as with all respiratory things, but maybe the extra knowledge will mitigate a bit.

Covid denying misinformation is a danger to us all.

I have no idea why people continue to believe those who told them it was just flu, young people don't get it, it's not going to kill you, it's just a mild illness, and all those early lies.

And how many times has coronavirus been "over" now.

I believe that the failure to put in place a fit for purpose find, test, trace, and isolate system, and covid denial are the two biggest reasons the outbreak has been so bad in this country.

And the two things still stopping us getting back nearer to normal.

Whilst our testing is so slow and convoluted and our track and trace is so poor, we won’t be able to get a grip on this.

Deaths are very similar to the amount of deaths occurring a couple of days before lockdown.

We are doing far more testing now.

The R rate is said to be reducing so the restrictions could be working.

As long as hospital admittances do not start going up exponentially, we'll be okay as long as we stick with the restrictions, especially in the 'local lockdown' areas.

I am quite worried we've lost that "all in it together" clapping on doorsteps thing that got us through the first lockdown.

The north - or parts of it - are worse off.

The bulk of the first wave cases were in and around London.

No I think March was much worse. Most of the reported figures came from those poorly enough to be in hospital. Imagine how many cases went untested that were manageable at home or asymptomatic

If things continue we will be like March again.

I think it's worse as theyve already wasted so much money on things that should have worked that didnt.
Also now it's compulsory school attendance so that is worse than jun/jul
My la has doubled in a week. Maybe because they were able to get tests.
We now have uni students and schools back.
People dont understand why its so important the nhs isnt overwhelmed they just heard if your under x age youll be ok but the reality is more youll probably be ok but if you need oxygen that may or may not be available.

I really do NOT want to go through another peak with schools with compulsory attendance.