Schools aren't driving this, poverty is

[ThinkAboutItTomorrow]

I look at the maps of cases hotspots and then the map of deprivation hotspots and it's hard not to see a link.

They need to stop making the rules harder and just enable people to follow the rules in place - cover any lost income from isolating.

Those more exposed to covid are in lower paid roles in lots of contact with the public - carers, retail, hospitality, factory workers etc.
If they don't go to work they can't pay bills or even feed their family as they have no savings cushion and companies pay SSP at best or nothing if zero hours / self employed. They can't afford to piss off employers as the job market is precarious.
If they are exposed to hundreds of strangers a day in work I can understand (while not agreeing) that not seeing friends and family seems pointless. I can serve my mum as a customer in my shop / cafe but can't visit her at home

Yes there does seem to be a link between covid and deprivation, it has been mentioned before. I will find a link. It does seem not to get mentioned much though

www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2389

Possibly seems to be aline with health outcomes but not sure. Lower life expectancy in certain areas and (see link) higher risk of serious cases.

Population density also comes into play since that reflects population density maps

Thanks @Orangeblossom7777 I know it's not that I've had some blinding insight no ones mentioned yet but I agree it doesn't seem to get the coverage.

Since at the moment it's about cases rising rather than deaths (obviously they will follow & are ticking upwards already) so I think it's about spreading behaviour rather than underlying health.

The government is all stuck but no carrot to enable people to do what's right.

I know Andy Burnham's been shouting this for ages but I looked at the map and was still shocked by the link.

Of course, that doesn't make as much of a political headline as poverty

But London is still not quite surging and Cornwall is a hot spot (probably tourism but not letting that spoil my argument 😀).

You don't think London is deprived? Where I live, only 15 percent of constituencies are more deprived.

Completely agree. Me and my partner are nothing self employed and have no savings and how we would afford to isolate I have no idea. No government help as we are not on a benefit. No self employed grant as we haven't been adversely affected. It's mind boggling

Those more exposed to covid are in lower paid roles in lots of contact with the public - carers, retail, hospitality, factory workers etc.

Although teachers are not “lower paid” (although some support staff certainly are) we are also in contact with 100s of people and cannot work from home. I agree with much of what you say, but please do not think schools will not be impacted too.

You're right OP, it's definitely a factor, and it is mentioned in the PHE Covid report.

@TheEndisCummings I'm looking at the BBC map from 2019. Some specific parts of London are very deprived and it looks like they are mostly the ones seeing high case numbers.

It's the students that are causing a surge in my city!

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow- yes, that is pretty much how it seems.

But @HipTightOnions surely teachers can afford to isolate if they have symptoms or are in contact with a positive case? And I may be naive but don't schools pay decent sick leave to cover it?

If schools were the driving factor in increased cases it would be an evenly spread national thing.

What I think we are seeing is people who can't afford to isolate putting their health and that of their loved ones at risk because they have no alternative if they want heating.

Surely it isn't that binary its a combination of all factors a perfect storm.

If cases are low of course school spread will be limited etc but also of course poverty is linked to an increase in all diseases.

It's many factors not a single one.

@hypochondriacseveywhere maybe but there are many student cities without outbreaks and many outbreaks without students.

I'm really cautious of this narrative backed up by lots of pictures of dolled up teenage girls in places like Newcastle and Liverpool (yes you, Daily Mail) that suggests it's people on the piss spreading Covid and justifying tighter restrictions on socialising.

The WHO said on the Today programme yesterday that much of what is in place should work it's just people not following the rules.

I think ever tighter more draconian rules is a classic case of treating the symptom not the cause.

But @HipTightOnions surely teachers can afford to isolate if they have symptoms or are in contact with a positive case? And I may be naive but don't schools pay decent sick leave to cover it?

You are right, of course. We don’t face that awful decision.

Poverty is certainly one of the factors, yes. If people are required to isolate but they won't get any money while they do it, the cost of isolation either gets paid by someone/something, or the isolation doesn't happen. With corresponding impact.

If that person has savings, or someone who can help them, or full pay while isolating, then they are actually able to do it. If they don't, and they need their wage to keep eating, they won't isolate. Not rocket science.

@PlateTectonics that's a great chart

I think I saw that reported more as 'holidays drive cases increase' as you look at the 19-30 year olds in the higher quintile bucking the trend.

But your right, the real story is why those with lower quintile incomes are hit hardest.

Ha, ha, ha, you are deluded if you think Tories give a shit about poor people.

He's Dominic Cummings saying they don't care about poor people or the NHS.

The working class, especially those in low paid work are being disproportionately effected in terms of infection and financially.

I know of several people in low paid work in so called keyworker roles who worked all through lockdown, who can not afford to isolate because there is no company sick pay. They would not go forward for a test. One friend has been ill and didn't test, carried on working and is angry about that, but felt she was pressured and had no choice. No work....no food.

In Italy and Spain there were spontaneous walk outs and strikes in factories that were expected to keep running without safety measures being put in place. Here.....nothing of the sort.

What is needed is collective action to make this government sit up....but, oh well too busy watching TV!

Is it right that lots of people are refusing to download the NHS app? is there any evidence to suggest its people in poorer areas? or those in lower waged work? and who is considered eligible for the £500 isolation benefit? and can it be paid more than once?

@KenDodd 😁 I'm under no such delusion. But I am surprised that media coverage and on here there's less discussion about it.

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow

But London is still not quite surging and Cornwall is a hot spot (probably tourism but not letting that spoil my argument 😀).

I live in Cornwall. It is one of the most deprived areas in the UK, and if you look at the map the areas which are exploding with cases are the very poorest parts of the county. Apart from one which is a posh but tourist trap kind of area in Cornwalll (Kingsand etc) There is also a food factory in the Pool area where cases are highest and I heard there was an outbreak there. Perhaps that is also driving the spread/rise in cases.

In Madrid the poorest areas are also having the most cases, it has been in the news, I suppose poorer areas may have more ethnic minorities / migrants? (it is true in that case) There was a outcry because one of their mayors (?) said something about to do with lifestyle of immigrants I recall. Vallacas I think it is (the suburb mentioned)

yes. Marginalised workers particulary hard hit - both on need to keep working, lack of employer support etc. Also lower general good nutition, overcrowded and poorly ventilated accommodation, disproportionate levels of underlying health conditions (exacerbated by poverty and stress)

There needs to be serious questions asked about how austerity has contributed to the number of deaths from covid in the early part of the pandemic

Population density is a huge factor. If you look at the density right across Europe, you can see all the original and current virus hotspots highlighted.
images.app.goo.gl/uzrCG2WZXbQKzrUN8
Covid spreads by people being physically close to each other. People with lower incomes often live in close proximity to others, especially in cities.

There has been rule-breaking for parties, funerals etc - none of which are connected with isolation. Some people have also broken quarantine or isolation, or gone out drinking despite having symptoms (and in a few cases, even a test!). I agree that those on low incomes need more help when isolating, but people breaking rules to have a party should also be criticised.