A potential social lockdown?

[Concerned7777]

I've seen some articles in my local paper suggesting the government may implement a social lockdown in the North and London for 2 weeks maybe longer. A total closure of all hospitality and leisure facilities. Schools factories and other workplaces to remain open if unable to work from home along with a total ban on households mixing.
My opinion is this preferable to a total lockdown but will it be enough? It was suggested for 2 weeks with the possibility of being longer but surely 2 weeks isnt long enough to create a massive drop in transmission would we end up socially locked down for the foreseeable and will people abide long term not to mix households?

I agree re schools. It's obvious they are playing a key part in the rise in cases since cases have gone up steeply ever since they reopened and not before. We have already heard many times that kids can have it and be completely asymptomatic, which explains why there isn't a huge rise in the primary age kids group - because they're not being tested due to having no symptoms.

If it were the fault of pubs cases would have risen more after they were reopened at the end of July.

I think people would have a lot more respect for the government if they were honest and admitted that schools are an issue, rather than trying to blame the rise on the rest of us and constantly asserting that schools are fine.

Most people would agree keeping kids in school is a priority so would be more accepting of restrictions in other areas if we were honestly told that it is necessary in order to keep schools open.

Close and defund the schools.

Setup online learning. One teacher can broadcast the lessons to hundreds if not thousands of pupils. Have lower paid assistants to set online work that can be marked by algorithms. Think of the money saved.

@Rushjob I hope you’re being deliberately inflammatory.

Good luck finding an algorithm to mark English work (or anything that isn’t multiple choice).

If they're planning to do an indefinite ban on household meetings, I hope they keep support bubbles. It's totally unfair to expect people who live alone to go without any human contact indefinitely.

@Yetiyoga

I just don't know how they thought it would be a good idea to let all those children back in together. Surely a 50 % capacity would have been better on a rota basis?

Yep, but they won't do it. The UK school.opening plans are ridiculous imo.

If they are going to do it it needs to apply to the whole country and not just the north. It clearly isn't reasonable to lock down the whole country when the south is the problem but allow the south to continue when the problem is in the north.
It is also almost certain to be totally ineffective.

We are in local lockdown. One of the worst places in the county. No body is adhering to social distancing so it is completely pointless. I work in schools and they all tell me about the fun they have had on the weekend with friends and family, even attending weddings in the city centre!
It’s not the pubs spreading it. It is people visiting with friends and family and those people will just ignore the guidance.

@Yetiyoga
Having schools open for 50% of the time is completely nonsensical and would lead to worse outcomes than full time virtual learning, and that is exactly why nobody with any sense has ever considered it an option.

I don't believe it will be 2 weeks. The last one was meant to be a couple of weeks and it dragged on for 4 months..numbers can fall during the 2 weeks, and suddenly it becomes about 'but some people are still getting it!' and pressure mounts to keep the lockdown going. From past experience..

[quote StatisticalSense]@Yetiyoga
Having schools open for 50% of the time is completely nonsensical and would lead to worse outcomes than full time virtual learning, and that is exactly why nobody with any sense has ever considered it an option.[/quote]
Apart from all the sensible people who did consider it for older pupils including all the people actually doing it successfully, safely and sustainably in FE colleges

@StatisticalSense I didn't say schools should be open 50% of the time? Schools would remain open but children would be in on a rota. Thus, helping with social distancing. So many school bubbles are off at the moment, this would perhaps help.

Tbh I wish the government would just get on with some form of plan. They seem not to have noticed that cases are rising across huge swathes of the country!

It’s bonkers - the government has clearly run out of ideas

@ShouldWeChangeTheBulb

We are in local lockdown. One of the worst places in the county. No body is adhering to social distancing so it is completely pointless. I work in schools and they all tell me about the fun they have had on the weekend with friends and family, even attending weddings in the city centre! It’s not the pubs spreading it. It is people visiting with friends and family and those people will just ignore the guidance.

That's such a shame. You must find it so frustrating, especially having to work in a high contact area knowing other many other families aren't adhering to the restrictions and have no regard for others safety. Obviously the longer some ignore the restrictions, the longer it's going to take to get under control, and in the meantime those that follow restrictions are going to suffer, and we also have to think about those that catch it.

I know we're not exempt from rising cases, but we're very strict on ourselves in our area, SD/wearing face masks even when outside, most socialising done in gardens, walks, the odd pub meal outside. Surely this has to be helping keep our numbers very low.

@Rushjob

Close and defund the schools.

Setup online learning. One teacher can broadcast the lessons to hundreds if not thousands of pupils. Have lower paid assistants to set online work that can be marked by algorithms. Think of the money saved.

I hope you are being sarcastic

London positive tests went up 770% between 21 June & 10 Sep.

On 21st June, hospital deaths were averaging 2.6 per day.

On 22 Sep (when data should be fairly complete) average was 2.7.

Why are further, high-cost lockdown restrictions for London even being discussed?

From Professor David Paton on Twitter.

mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1310572993890988032

i'm in a local lockdown area where cases keep going up.

I don't think the government could get away with this UNLESS there was specific tailored support for the businesses affected, which they won't provide.

The only way out of this is to throw money at properly local enforcement and contact tracing IMO. Pubs etc have a part to play but totally unjustified to shut them down when most of the ones I know have been responsible throughout.

I do think the government deliberately lets things like this 'leak' so that they can see what bods then say about it

@Gobacktothe90s I was wondering same thing as you. My area wouldn’t be locked down but my support bubble would be. But we are one household in effect so presuming I can visit them in their home even if they can’t leave their area. Who knows!

I’m in Manchester so high rates of Covid. I work as a tutor (online now) and virtually all the kids tell me about visitors, meeting friends etc when we are not supposed to be meeting up with anyone right now. In my street I see my neighbours still having guests over. I’ve had to unfollow a few of my (local) Facebook friends as they are anti maskers etc and, again, meeting up with friends etc etc. Everyone thinks that the rules don’t apply to them. The numbers are increasing exponentially and if the NHS gets overwhelmed, they are all the ones who’ve done it.

What I don't like is people trying to work out where 'the blame' lies.
It's a virus that thrives on people being in close contact with one another.
So yes, universities are 'to blame'.
Pubs are 'to blame'.
But equally, people going back into the office are also 'to blame', as it opening schools.

ANY activity that involves close contact with people, or increased contact, is going to increase risk. That's all there is to it.

The government then have to decide what they can realistically do to reduce risk while balancing the economic impact.

I personally believe there will be no end to this until there is a reliable vaccine, and there is no way of knowing when that will be. It seems very unlikely it'll be this year at all.

I also think that people are now in the mindset of ignoring extra rules. They've had enough of it. I see people all over social media gathering in groups - we're in a local lockdown! My partner and I went for a walk yesterday and the children's play area near us was completely rammed. I was in shock.

It's all such a mess.

Until and unless we get hundreds of people dying every day there will growing unease and unrest about the continuing restrictions on the lives of millions of us

ANY activity that involves close contact with people, or increased contact, is going to increase risk. That's all there is to it.

Completely agree. Cases rising was the inevitable result of opening things back up - not sure why the government is reacting as if they thought it had gone away but we've all been naughty and caused it to return.

I am not sure people will adhere to another ban on households mixing. I'd say that's the most important thing people want to keep but obviously the government would sacrifice it as they want to keep businesses open, which is understandable.

Personally I think the only thing that will help is widespread mass testing. They know the virus is very often asymptomatic/presents different symptoms not always including the prime 3, so track and trace efforts only for those who have taken themselves for a test due to symptoms won't really work.

@Rushjob

Close and defund the schools.

Setup online learning. One teacher can broadcast the lessons to hundreds if not thousands of pupils. Have lower paid assistants to set online work that can be marked by algorithms. Think of the money saved.

@Rushjob if this isn’t a joke, this is one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever heard 😂

@ChaChaCha2012

surely the government would have to step in and help protect incomes if they are closing them off, you'd like to hope so anyway

The opposition has pushed for this, tailored support for the industries most affected. It's not happened. Furlough was a blunt tool that was abused by employers that didn't need it, and excluded many that did. The new plan is even worse.

Yup my employer has made about £300k from the furlough scheme whilst making similar profits to before the virus, by furloughing half the office/admin staff and letting their colleagues pick up the extra. There are no plans to make anyone redundant when furlough is over.

I bet loads of companies have done this.