Is Sadiq Khan jumping the gun?

[pontypridd]

There is no real evidence that London needs to be on the watch list is there?

The statistics suggest it’s doing ok.

Why is Sadiq Khan pushing for a London lockdown?

Umm yes I wonder too. So info I gained from a look at the phe report this morning.

• rates are siding in 6 London Boroughs compared to last week but falling in all the others
• testing is decreasing and the positivity rate is increasing but the positivity rate in London is still 2 percent which doesn’t put it in the top three positivity rates of the country..really I would say that we are not testing enough country wide (which we know) but I couldn’t say London was a specific problem or else it’s positivity rate would be higher.
• two weeks behind the north west I just cannot find the evidence for London’s rate per 100,000 slightly dropped in the last week and is now at the the the north west was four weeks ago (and four weeks ago the north west was on a continued upwards tract where London rose a little and then fell.

In terms of worrying trends yes hospitalisation is increasing in the capital as is icu and there are def boroughs (Redbridge) seeing high levels of the virus that if it went unchecked could spread re the capital but I think sadiq is jumping the gun a bit based on the evidence. Particularly as I suspect the work from home advice issued Tuesday will have more of an impact in the capital due to higher levels of community groups re public transport compared to other cities and that many office workers can work from home. I think extra restrictions London wide would however seem quite early compared to other areas (although to be fair maybe they particularly Liverpool acted a bit late?)

Thank you for such a detailed reply. I wasn’t expecting that.

Why is he rushing this through then? Or pushing for it. My instinct is to resist it. But maybe it’s all for the best ...

Oh god, what’s he said now?

Umm I cannot decide if he is being sensible cautious (as I said other areas maybe acted too late) or politicising because well he is a labour mayor up for re-election next year and wants to say “I tried to help London but the rotors said no”.

...in reality it is probably a bit of both!!

Simple. He’s playing politics.

But testing numbers rely on Joe Public admitting they could have COvid and a test comes with a complimentary (!) period of quarantine up to 14 days (plus drop in income etc) which some may decide is not worth it so they don't get tested.

I'd say it's human nature that as time goes on, the 'novelty' of test / quarantine wears off, people get used to just going about their lives and less bothered about getting tested.

I know that the above applies to me when I hear anyone in my family coughing now. Oh it's just the end of that cold / asthma / morning clear out.

So perhaps there's a focus on trying to combine actual tests with hospital admissions to try to extrapolate a truer number which is higher????

The argument is that testing has massively decreased in London so there is no way to know for sure the real number of cases, so they are also looking at hospitalisations, GP visits and app reports. These suggest that the situation is also getting worse in London.

And why wouldn't it be? It's getting worse in many other urban areas.

The argument is that it's better to bring in restrictions before everything goes off the rails.

I think there is some other data, such as samples from blood donations.

I mean, a series of other data sources pointing to an issue.

Sadiq Sturgeon!

Well, if he's playing politics he isn't the only one 😡

mobile.twitter.com/ricardofodol/status/1309771496563376129

I'm sure it's partly politics - which could backfire on him. If we get locked down, or restricted, unnecessarily it will piss people off.

He's already not all that popular - just the best of a bad bunch imo.

I think the novelty will wear off too - with testing.

I thought it was PHE that put us on the watch list

If it gets us better access to tests and encourages people to behave sensibly then what's the problem?

I don't particularly like Sadiq Khan but I don't think it's fair to say he's 'pushing for a London lockdown'.

'The argument is that testing has massively decreased in London so there is no way to know for sure the real number of cases, so they are also looking at hospitalisations, GP visits and app reports. These suggest that the situation is also getting worse in London.'

^ This exactly