More infections now than in March/April 2020

[Justpassingtime1]

I just cannot believe this. I hope I am wrong.
Please me I am

We were only testing a fraction of people with symptoms back then - mostly only the most severe who were in hospital. The actual estimate for the peak is more like 100,000 cases per day. And we are nowhere near that yet

We're testing more people now, so of course there are going to be more cases.

It was infectious then, it’s infectious now. It hasn’t changed. Testing has changed dramatically. Back in March my husband had it, worked as an NHS consultant, and could t get a test.
It’s a pandemic. Most of us will get it.

You are wrong lol they were only testing people in hospital then. There was estimated 100,000 cases a day back then l

I didn’t mean that to sound negative by the way. Just use the well known precautions.

As others have said, it's more cases we pick up, but now we test everyone with symptoms, then we only tested people who were ill enough to need medical treatment or some other reason.

So if you think of it as a triangle.
We were only picking up the tip in March. Now we're picking up more of the triangle.

Like others have said, impossible to know. Hardly anybody was being tested in march unless you were being admitted to hospital and they thought you might have it.

Now, they are picking up a whole lot of asymptomatic cases, community cases etc. The numbers in hospitals are not yet anywhere like the peak, and nor are the numbers of people who are dying. Which may or may not indicate nowhere near as many cases. (or may have some other cause, who knows). But I think that in March-April, the number of cases was a lot, lot higher than we will ever know.

The ONS estimate that 100,000 people a day were catching it in March/April and the R rate was 4. Estimates now are that around 10,000 people a day are catching it and the R is between 1 and 1.6 depending on where you are. Also hospital admissions are far, far lower than at the peak, as are deaths.

Also it's true that more asymptomatic cases are being picked up - at a care home near me in Gateshead 15 residents and several staff all tested positive (routine testing) and none had symptoms.

As above, it is impossible to compare. At the start, only very unwell people were tested, hence why the death rate at one stage looked to be around 10%. Lots of people were unwell at home but did not require hospitalisation and so were not tested.

Now, everyone being admitted to hospital for any reason is tested. Also anyone who self reports a symptom, no matter how minor, (should!) be able to access a test.

The testing capacity has increased by something crazy like 20-fold.

So realistically, we are probably still in a far better position than we were 6 months ago. I think the tipping point now is around community transmission. For a while there they could see from track and trace that they had a handle on it, that isn't the case now so it could easily get out of control again.

The graphs on worldomotor are a bit scary when you compare the current position with March and April but increased testing definitely is a large factor.

While there is more testing now vs April there are also growing restrictions on testing so it is still an underestimate eg no longer testing those without symptoms in household with positive case, reductions in routine screening for hospital staff (causing a lot of upset where I work).

If they stop looking for asymptomatic cases, the spread will just continue. Nevermind financial and staffing implications of having 2 weeks isolation and no way to return to work earlier with a confirmed negative test.

Is the OP coming back? I do wonder if some of these inflammatory posts about Covid are by Russian bots 😆

the comparison cannot be made

You can't compare at all. Hardly anyone was being tested back then!

Really getting fed up of the mass hysteria and panic.

I am being careful but we have got to stop the panicking.

Do people genuinely only read headlines and nothing else?