Vaccine

[Ellsbells12]

Do you think a vaccine will end all this obviously we cannot go on the way we are I definitely or do you think they will get a treatment

Nope.

Vaccine may happen and be available tl the majority by the end of NEXT year, but realistically the following year, but it wont fix this. It wont eliminate it. It will help some for a while.

Treatment will develop over time as we learn more and more about it. Again, will help, wont end it.

It's a virus. People seem to struggle with the idea that humans usually cannot control viruses, especially not in the space of a year or two. Humans are susceptible to viruses and we just need to accept that.

@SqidgeBum

Nope.

Vaccine may happen and be available tl the majority by the end of NEXT year, but realistically the following year, but it wont fix this. It wont eliminate it. It will help some for a while.

Treatment will develop over time as we learn more and more about it. Again, will help, wont end it.

It's a virus. People seem to struggle with the idea that humans usually cannot control viruses, especially not in the space of a year or two. Humans are susceptible to viruses and we just need to accept that.

I hope science can come to the rescue. I don't see that this virus is comparable to others out there, at least currently. Its level of contagiousness, its ability to kill huge numbers of people (even if the death rate is not that high compared to some other viruses) and to leave many more with serious organ damage. Its ability to reinfect, although I realise we don't yet know how common this is. It could essentially turn out to be something that comes around like a common cold, but with far more catastrophic consequences. Yes it is possible that science might not be able to intervene much, but if that's the case I think humanity is in a great deal of trouble.

@BlueBlancmange I agree that humans are in a great deal of trouble. We are looking to beat something that is essentially unbeatable. It can be mitigated a little, but its a coronavirus. Like you said, its a more contagious and more dangerous cold, and we have no vaccine for a cold.

Money will be flung at high speed at this thing, and we will get somewhere which will save some lives, but I really, truly believe that this will be the moment in time where humans realise we are not top of the food chain. We cannot control and beat everything like we have been led to believe. As with some cancers, illnesses and conditions, there are some things that we cannot defeat. We just learn to accept the risk and continue on ...... or we sit in our sitting rooms cowering from the world. Whichever you choose really.

Well thanks for your scientific offerings here. However with the majority of world scientists and the Who disagreeing with you, I think I'll take the more positive approach with a vaccine!

[quote SqidgeBum]@BlueBlancmange I agree that humans are in a great deal of trouble. We are looking to beat something that is essentially unbeatable. It can be mitigated a little, but its a coronavirus. Like you said, its a more contagious and more dangerous cold, and we have no vaccine for a cold.

Money will be flung at high speed at this thing, and we will get somewhere which will save some lives, but I really, truly believe that this will be the moment in time where humans realise we are not top of the food chain. We cannot control and beat everything like we have been led to believe. As with some cancers, illnesses and conditions, there are some things that we cannot defeat. We just learn to accept the risk and continue on ...... or we sit in our sitting rooms cowering from the world. Whichever you choose really.[/quote]
There hasn't been the same need to create a vaccine for other human coronaviruses though. It's not worth it for the common cold, and SARS/MERS were contained. And I believe there is a Coronavirus vaccine for use in animals. Of course none of this means it is necessarily possible to develop a vaccine against Covid, but I don't think it means it's not either. I remain optimistic thus far. And yes we would have to carry on, but I think society as we know it would collapse. Too many people dying and incapacitated. It would be terrible I think.

Not that it isn't already terrible, but I mean for humanity as a whole.

@Forgone90

Well thanks for your scientific offerings here. However with the majority of world scientists and the Who disagreeing with you, I think I'll take the more positive approach with a vaccine!

I do kind of wonder why some people are so adamant there will never be a vaccine. Maybe they don't want to have hope, because it would be too awful for it to be dashed. Which it would be I know. But hope that there will be a vaccine is what is keeping me going at the moment.

Just to be clear, I am not saying there wont be a vaccine. There will be. What I am saying is actually based ok what scientists have been saying over the last few weeks; it wont guarantee immunity for everyone, and if it does give immunity it wont be very long lasting as the antibodies dont hang around long in human bodies. I am not just making this up out of my head.

Yes, it looks likely that there will be a (more likely several) successful vaccine within the next few months, especially if a challenge trial is allowed.

I'm not sure that anyones actually tried to create a vaccine for common colds, if they have, then not seriously, as its an idea that has no money behind it, so why would anyone put a great deal of effort into finding one?

Clearly we wouldn't need the vaccine to be generally available to everyone to increase normal life. If we can start to cover vulnerable groups and public facing workers, the virus becomes lower and lower risk to the population, both because a herd immunity starts to develop, and because for most people it's a very mild illness. Vaccinating everyone may well not ever need or want to be achieved anyway. It'll all be cost vs benefit.

I think there will be one.

But it’s seems the challenge trials have taken a long time to consider (if they happen)

So many ‘scientists’ on here with their GCSE science spoutings Maybe actually read some proper research papers. We have vaccines for coronaviruses in animals, we just haven’t needed them for humans before so there was no money in them. There is absolutely no reason to believe there won’t be a vaccine in the near future. The first ones might not be brilliant but they should be enough for now and they will get better.

I think as a world we need to stop thinking about "beating" or "controlling" or "eradicating" this virus, and be realistic and see that we can hope to manage it. Every other illness that has been eradicated through a vaccine has taken years, decades, to do so. There is a difference between optimism and science based realism.

Yes, I do. Mainly based around the fact that living with any highly infectious disease isn’t containable when it has a high death/long term effect rate. I’m sure if they could have vaccinated against the Plague and had had the science then, they would have done, instead they isolated and locked down villages - like the story of Eyam in Derbyshire, who chose to do that to save others.

Flu is relatively comparable, in the sense it alters yearly and the reality is we do vaccinate against that. When we know what higher risk factors are with Covid-19, we may be able to create a smaller vaccine program, but at the moment it would need to be big. Realistically, I don’t think medical staff could cope with huge high pressure. We are already seeing higher suicide attempts and PTSD rates in NHS staff (and internationally), they can’t carry on this way and neither can the country. It was always going to take time for a vaccine to be developed, but I do think it will come and also be changed year on year as we see different strains and learn more. We may have more periods of isolation/lockdown as new strains appear, but hopefully after this outbreak, governments will listen when reports by medical staff are first released and not brush it off as ‘basically a cold or flu’. There may be issues if uptake is low though.

@BlueBlancmange I get that it is keeping me going I can't live like this

I know we will never get rid but we can't keep locking down etc ... people are also committing suicide due to jobs losses etc

Well it’s not surprising that our Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance has £600,000 of shares in vaccine is it?

I suspect a lot of our ‘advisors’ are going to make a pretty penny out of scaring every one to death and having them queuing up to buy their vaccine. I actually read about this a while back and others who were insisting we would all need a vaccine.

You couldn’t make it up.

None of my family will be having it

He doesn't have "shares in vaccine", as he was previously a senior executive at Glaxo he has Glaxo shares which as is the case with many senior staff members formed part of his renumeration package.

Whatever your views on that, it's a daft reason for refusing a vaccine. In any case, the Oxford vaccine is a partnership with AstraZeneca who are a completely different company.

I think if one country does find a vaccine they will rule the world. Can’t imagine Europe having problems trading with us if we can provide them with a solution to this problem.

@CoffeeandCroissant

He doesn't have "shares in vaccine", as he was previously a senior executive at Glaxo he has Glaxo shares which as is the case with many senior staff members formed part of his renumeration package.

Whatever your views on that, it's a daft reason for refusing a vaccine. In any case, the Oxford vaccine is a partnership with AstraZeneca who are a completely different company.

It’s a conflict of interest. No matter how you put a spin on it. He shouldn’t be guiding the country in to taking a vaccine he will make money from.

Yes, that's why I said "Whatever your views on that" meaning potential conflict of interest or views on executive share schemes/ pay / bonuses. But it's not a conspiracy or a reason to refuse a vaccine.

I think it will become endemic and just another nasty bug once it’s not a novel virus any more, and probably pluck off a load of pensioners each year same as flu does now each winter. So it won’t disappear and will always be a threat of sorts but not to the same extent as now. Humanity is not going to be in a great deal of trouble long term fgs. We have been dealing and living with infectious diseases for centuries.

I think a vaccine will be found but my concern is will it provide the solution? It opens up a whole new can of worms and ethical argument. The very people that need to have the vaccine for it to be effective are young people who are at minimal risk from COVID. The vaccine may not be effective for the older more vulnerable people, at risk from Covid.

Personally I am extremely pro vaccination normally and have even given my kids chicken pox vaccines etc not on NHS. But even I am struggling with if I would give a Covid vaccine to my kids. The chances of harm and even discomfort from Covid for young kids are so low that the risk of side effects from this vaccine would have to be so tiny to consider administering it. And therein lies the problem why I think a vaccine may end up causing a lot more divisions and not be the answer.

We don't need a vaccine that makes every single person immune, we need something to reduce the R rate sufficiently that SD is no longer required. It's almost certain a vaccine will achieve that.

There will still be some cases but hopefully fairly small numbers and with treatments improving more people will recover even if severely affected.

It's likely the virus will become endemic, will be vaccinated against annually/bi-annually perhaps only in the case of high risk groups or super spreader groups.

I think we can be hopeful that by this time next year we'll be in a very different (and better) place.

“ Personally I am extremely pro vaccination normally and have even given my kids chicken pox vaccines etc not on NHS. But even I am struggling with if I would give a Covid vaccine to my kids. The chances of harm and even discomfort from Covid for young kids are so low that the risk of side effects from this vaccine would have to be so tiny to consider administering it. “

Same here. But I’ve concluded I probably would vaccinate them, not because they directly benefit necessarily but because they do benefit enormously from schools remaining open, a functioning economy etc and it looks like this might be the only way to achieve it. I suspect by the time kids reach front of the queue a lot more will be known anyway.

and if it does give immunity it wont be very long lasting as the antibodies dont hang around long in human bodies. I am not just making this up out of my head

You're not taking into account T-memory cells. You can have those and not have antibodies, but they'll instruct your cells to make antibodies if you come up against SARS-COV-2 again. For the last SARS virus back in 2009, it's been shown people who had it still have T-cells many years later!