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Covid

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Original poster

Oxford Vaccine

62 replies

BlueBlancmange · 22/09/2020 21:46

I am optimistic about vaccines in general. However I am concerned about the Oxford Vaccine and the two cases of Transverse Myelitis that have occurred. It is claimed the first case was related to a diagnosis of MS in the volunteer and nothing to do with the vaccine. However they seem to be being quite vague about the second case, and trials have not resumed in the US although they have elsewhere.

I have heard if there is another case that is pretty much the end for this particular vaccine. But surely it's possible that the vaccine has caused the reaction, but there doesn't happen to be another case of it during the trials. How can it simply rest on whether or not one more case of Transverse Myelitis shows up? Surely we need to know for sure that the vaccine isn't causing it. And if another one does happen then that is pretty much the end of it. It just seems worrying either way.

OP posts:

Heyahun · 22/09/2020 22:29

info Like this always comes from a bloody you tube video though 😂 legit news source like

GwendolineMarysLaces · 22/09/2020 22:31

A friend of mine on the trial was told about the first 'case' when they went for their booster- apparently there were old scans which were re-reviewed and they proved that the person had pre-existing MS lesions

Original poster

BlueBlancmange · 22/09/2020 22:31

@Oly4

I agree with Sunshine, there’s plenty of explanations as to why the vaccine is being done quickly.. none to do with skimping on safety. If Oxford doesn’t work, another one will. Pfizer and Moderna are frontrunners. Imperial in London hope theirs will be available in first half of next year. But we don’t know the Oxford one is ruled out yet, there’s a lot of data to process. EMMac, actually transverse myelitis is between five and 25 times more common in people with MS and one of the participants had MS.

Thanks this makes me feel a bit better :)

OP posts:

Sunshinegirl82 · 22/09/2020 22:33

The scientists seem very clear and honest to me about timeframes, including where there are uncertainties (which there are).

There are several vaccines at stage 3 trials, with the vaccine being manufactured at risk on a large scale and regulators prepared to drop pretty much everything to look at licensing there really is no need to suppose that timeframes will be comparable with previous vaccines.

I think the issue with China and Russia will be that there might be some difficulty in trusting data about the vaccines released from those countries. For that reason I suspect licensing might actually take longer than in the case of vaccines produced in countries with a better reputation for transparency.

Original poster

BlueBlancmange · 22/09/2020 22:33

@GwendolineMarysLaces

I guess we just need more clarification regarding the second case.

OP posts:

Oly4 · 22/09/2020 22:34

Also we don’t have confirmation the second case actually was transverse myelitis. The “source” for that was somebody speaking anonymously!
If there is definite confirmation of two cases, I’d like to see it

SheepandCow · 22/09/2020 22:36

Does anyone know if there's a reason why people can't choose to have an unlicensed vaccine if they're willing to sign a disclaimer?

hoppingleg · 22/09/2020 22:38

"Also we don’t have confirmation the second case actually was transverse myelitis. The “source” for that was somebody speaking anonymously!
If there is definite confirmation of two cases, I’d like to see it"

Threads like this exasperate me a bit. I really need to take a break from
social media. I wish people would do proper research before posting a scaremongering story. The first case definitely wasn't confirmed to be transverse myelitis

JS87 · 22/09/2020 22:38

Also they haven’t even said which arm the adverse event was in I think? I presume it’s the cv vaccine but could have been the meningitis vaccine arm.

Nicketynac · 22/09/2020 22:47

@JS87

Also they haven’t even said which arm the adverse event was in I think? I presume it’s the cv vaccine but could have been the meningitis vaccine arm.

They can't say which arm because that would "unblind" that participant.

Oly4 · 22/09/2020 22:51

Yes agree, we don’t even know the people with the reactions actually got the vaccine!

CoffeeandCroissant · 22/09/2020 22:57

@JS87

Also they haven’t even said which arm the adverse event was in I think? I presume it’s the cv vaccine but could have been the meningitis vaccine arm.

We do though, the Astra Zeneca CEO confirmed it. www.statnews.com/2020/09/09/astrazeneca-covid19-vaccine-trial-hold-patient-report/

It's also the reason the US trial is still on hold, they said they want more medical information on the patient.

covidstuff · 22/09/2020 23:03

Also, thing is, saying transverse myelitis is extremely rare so it's worrying that there was a case (not two cases) among only 8000 vaccine recipients ignores that there are many thousands of extremely rare illnesses. Put them all together, and it's not that surprising that someone or even several people come down with some extremely rare illness during the trial. (Two people with the very same one would be a lot more worrying, but that's not what happened here.) The statisticians will be all over this and those of us who aren't statisticians and/or don't have the full facts need to be careful to avoid jumping to conclusions.

PuzzledObserver · 22/09/2020 23:21

Does anyone know if there's a reason why people can't choose to have an unlicensed vaccine if they're willing to sign a disclaimer?

The person giving it would be breaking the law ?

SheepandCow · 22/09/2020 23:25

@PuzzledObserver

Does anyone know if there's a reason why people can't choose to have an unlicensed vaccine if they're willing to sign a disclaimer?

The person giving it would be breaking the law ?

Why such a law though?

Why not allow people to choose their own risk (with informed consent and a disclaimer), like they do in so many other areas of life.

frozendaisy · 23/09/2020 08:56

Oxford, or any other reputable research lab, will not release an unsafe vaccine.

They know what they are doing.

The whole world is watching and their research will be peer scrutinized.

Releasing a video on YouTube is not peer scrutiny.

frozendaisy · 23/09/2020 08:59

@PuzzledObserver

Does anyone know if there's a reason why people can't choose to have an unlicensed vaccine if they're willing to sign a disclaimer?

The person giving it would be breaking the law ?

Think it's compulsory in Russia!

Because labs aren't prepared to hand out unlicensed vaccines, with good reason.

raviolidreaming · 23/09/2020 09:11

I had a follow up appointment post-booster this week. The research nurse was entirely unconcerned about the pause - said it's to be expected in any trial of this size, but usually it doesn't reach the media as there isn't so much public interest.

At my booster appointment, I was told participants will be unblinded if the vaccine is rolled out earlier than the trial end.

So all seems positive from where I'm sat

jasjas1973 · 23/09/2020 09:22

Oxford, or any other reputable research lab, will not release an unsafe vaccine
They know what they are doing
The whole world is watching and their research will be peer scrutinized

As it always is

But thats why we have medicine regulators because companies and organisations have vested interests and may not always have our best wishes at heart.
Plenty of examples of this.

I just don't see how a phase 3 trial had to take 3 to 6 years in 2015 to prove a vaccine safe but now it can all be compressed into a few months in 2020?

TheId · 23/09/2020 09:35

The first case the person had Previously undiagnosed MS which was the cause not the vaccine. Very sad for them but not vaccine related.

The second case no-one knows much about but one event in thousands of people being vaccinated that is just as likely a chance occurrence. If you enroll huge numbers in a trial some rare illnesses will occur just by chance.

I was happy to go ahead and get my booster (whether the real thing or the control I obviously have no idea). I have had no ill effects at all.

JS87 · 23/09/2020 09:39

@jasjas1973

Oxford, or any other reputable research lab, will not release an unsafe vaccine They know what they are doing The whole world is watching and their research will be peer scrutinized

As it always is

But thats why we have medicine regulators because companies and organisations have vested interests and may not always have our best wishes at heart.
Plenty of examples of this.

I just don't see how a phase 3 trial had to take 3 to 6 years in 2015 to prove a vaccine safe but now it can all be compressed into a few months in 2020?

Does it also have something to do with this being a pandemic with a widely circulating virus? Phase 3 trials also have to prove efficacy I think so enough people have to come into contact with the virus naturally to work out if there is protection. When covid cases were decreasing in the UK they knew the results would take longer, hence why they added sites such as Brazil. The more cases there are the quicker it is to see if the vaccine is effective. I think it's hard to say that a vaccine trial in 2015 took 3-6 due to safety or efficacy without all the details.

PatienceVirtue · 23/09/2020 09:41

Me too - I had the booster last week and I've had no ill effects (that I know of). I'm more fingers crossing that I've had the CV vaccine rather than meningitis. Though it would be ironic and kind of satisfying if unbeknown to me I was exposed to meningitis and was protected through my altruism*.

*My reasons for going on trial not really altruistic but still.

frozendaisy · 23/09/2020 10:16

@jasjas1973

I just don't see how a phase 3 trial had to take 3 to 6 years in 2015 to prove a vaccine safe but now it can all be compressed into a few months in 2020?

From what I can make out the "delivery" method is established, there was coronavirus vaccination research previously which got shelved because the government decided it wasn't worth funding, so they didn't start from nothing, the blueprint of the virus was released universally by a Chinese scientist who I think has gone missing, and the main research was "folding the active proteins" or something technical. Yes ideally 6 years would be great but society needs it quicker.

Very informed educated guesses all round I presume.

And I am aware of "Bad Pharma" so can just hope that scrutiny is beyond reasonable doubt and dodgy results are not lost in the ether this time. What else to do?

jasjas1973 · 23/09/2020 10:39

@frozendaisy

Sure things will be speeded up but i just think the talk of a vaccine in a few months is just that...Talk!

I think its being done to give us hope..... "just one more push lads and we'll be there"

Originally told it would be the Autumn, then by Xmas, now in limited quantities, for front line workers, next spring.

frozendaisy · 23/09/2020 10:52

I think it was only the yap yap politicians who made vaccine promises not sure the research medics ever made these sweeping promises.

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