Whitty says 50000 cases a day will lead to 200 deaths a day. So 0.4% fatality rate.

[Treesofwood]

Or have I misunderstood? I thought it was much higher than that?

@RockieRoadie

Let's hope you or those you know are not in that 0.4% or are you willing to take your chances?

It is important to note that 0.4 is the average, so it's far lower for young people and far higher for the elderly.

Keepithidden 165000 people a year die of cancer.

Remember it's 0.4% with measures...with no one pulling their weight it'd be sky high

Eh?

You do know we all have a 50% chance of getting cancer these days? How does 0.4% look now?

50% chance of getting cancer - so maybe 30% chance of dying of cancer. Over your entire life - say 40 years. So that's what, 0.75% chance of dying of cancer this year. Yeah you're right, that's pretty low. Why on earth do we spend billions trying to find a cure?

You do know we all have a 50% chance of getting cancer these days?

Remember that if you are diagnosed with cancer, you are on the shielding list (permanently for some, during active treatment for others) and therefore - according to some - expendable, along with all the rest of the highly vulnerable, or at least should be in full isolation at all times so that everyone else can live their lives. It's a POV I just don't get - the same person could die and simultaneously be a disgrace (because treatments should be going ahead despite infection risk) and expected (because people wrongly think that all the shielded are about to die anyhow)

@Treesofwood

Keepithidden 165000 people a year die of cancer.

And 45,000 people have died from CV in 6 months. So left unabated that's 90,000 a year. Two thirds that of cancer.

@RockieRoadie

Remember it's 0.4% with measures...with no one pulling their weight it'd be sky high.

You do realise that the percentage of people who die from it remains the same regardless of how many people have it. That's how percentages work.

Remember people have been exposed to flu before. Covid is new, the vast
Majority of the population (well
Over 90%) hasn't got antibodies to it. It's not just about numbers dying, it's about preventing a catastrophic amount of simultaneous illness in the country at the same time. If everyone is ill at the same time, there won't be any health care and death rates will soar

It’s not the same fatality rate as flu. That’s less than 0.1% and possibly a lot lower. They also said last year 7000 people died of flu and 20000 3 years ago which was a bad flu year. So far more people have already died. This is in part due to a higher mortality rate but also lack of vaccine and no real prior immunity.

@carrythecan if no one bothered to SD or whatever the cases would be sky high, the death rate would be higher as the NHS would be overwhelmed and not everyone will get the treatment/stabilisation via hospitals in time.

I read today that 1% of all deaths in Week 2 of Sept were CV as the cause. What are we doing about the other 99% causes?

It’s all a bit OTT all this now for me

@GRain5

I read today that 1% of all deaths in Week 2 of Sept were CV as the cause. What are we doing about the other 99% causes?

It’s all a bit OTT all this now for me

But the point is we’re trying to keep it that way rather than them become 50% of the deaths.

Titchy 45000 died with Covid. I'm not sure how many of those actually died of it.

RockieRoadie why would the NHS be overwhelmed? It wasn't anywhere near being overwhelmed back in March/April and they've learnt a lot more about how to handle the virus now.

Also, nobody is suggesting that we have no measures to prevent the spread, just that another lockdown is likely to do more harm than good.

I get that JS but how long do we keep this going for? It’s just shit and unless everyone abides by it, it doesn’t work. Greater Manchester has been under restrictions for ages and they aren’t working because a lot of people are taking zero notice of it. I live on a fairly rough estate and people weren’t following the rules even in the first lockdown. Parties going on everywhere.

@carrythecan

No the percentage doesn’t remain the same. It’s also predicated on those who need hospital treatment, being able to get it promptly. It’s why Germany’s death rate is so much lower than the UK’s: they monitor patients and admit them early for non-invasive oxygen therapy (aka the BoJo treatment).

If things get really busyh hospitals, we’ll be told once to again by 111 that we need to stay at home until we have blue lips. And knowing how the NHS is on its knees every winter with the flu, it’s likely that we’re not going to have capacity for everyone who needs it. I don’t know why there’s this collective amnesia about the sight of people dying in trolleys, which we see every January in many NHS trusts.

Personally I’m not so much concerned about the death rate as the hospitalization rate (close to 9% for people in their 50s - Lancet study). Would rather avoid that if I can.

@carrythecan
If its like the 1918 flu pandemic we may well have a massive second wave higher than the first, overwhelming the NHS.

@Treesofwood

Or have I misunderstood? I thought it was much higher than that?

I calculated it as exactly the same. Which means that Fergusons model was out by what 250000. Plus I calculated that for at least a couple of weeks 1.5million must have been catching it per wee (working from the 1000+ deaths a day), which puts the percentage.of.people that have had it far higher than 7%

This is an article written by Deborah James aka 'Bowel Babe', who has Stage 4 bowel cancer and is pretty high profile in the cancer community. Yes it's in The Sun (that's who she is contracted to write for) and I am not actually sure she is the best journalist, I think the reporting for Panorama that she did had some flaws (she isn't actually a journalist she is a teacher by trade but has moved into broadcasting). But as a Stage 4 cancer patient, this is her perspective, and I think that is worth something.

On a day when 3 people in England died of Covid I lost four friends to cancer – it’s time for some perspective

www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/12730778/3-people-died-covid-4-friends-cancer/

@Batshitbeautycosmeticsltd

No, it's not. Still supporting another lockdown and soldiers policing you now?

The army are supporting the police in back room so they can do frontline stuff. Don't exaggerate.

[quote Redolent]@carrythecan

No the percentage doesn’t remain the same. It’s also predicated on those who need hospital treatment, being able to get it promptly. It’s why Germany’s death rate is so much lower than the UK’s: they monitor patients and admit them early for non-invasive oxygen therapy (aka the BoJo treatment).

If things get really busyh hospitals, we’ll be told once to again by 111 that we need to stay at home until we have blue lips. And knowing how the NHS is on its knees every winter with the flu, it’s likely that we’re not going to have capacity for everyone who needs it. I don’t know why there’s this collective amnesia about the sight of people dying in trolleys, which we see every January in many NHS trusts.

Personally I’m not so much concerned about the death rate as the hospitalization rate (close to 9% for people in their 50s - Lancet study). Would rather avoid that if I can.[/quote]
At what point did 111 ever tell people they couldn’t go to hospital unless they have blue lips? I’ve seen this stated numerous times but no actual evidence this was true. Healthcare professionals use objective criteria including clinical examination and observations such as your pulse and oxygen saturations.

[quote RockieRoadie]@carrythecan
If its like the 1918 flu pandemic we may well have a massive second wave higher than the first, overwhelming the NHS.[/quote]
Its not like the 2018 flu pandemic.
HTH

@Timekeepspassing

In the peak of things here, there were numerous people asserting that this what they’d been told. Now some families are calling for an inquiry into the role of 111 in the pandemic, for precisely this reason:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/covid-bereaved-call-for-inquiry-into-nhs-111-handling-of-crisis

Testing

Why can't I upload any images?