“The next 6 months”

[FractionalGains]

In terms of the briefing today, CW and PV were talking about what was needed for the next 6 months. I wasn’t clear what will be different after 6 months. Is that on the basis a vaccine is successful? Otherwise what will be different?

I have every intention of following whatever restrictions are in place but I remember in March being told 12 weeks to turn the tide, now here we are in September and they’re saying 6 more months...

The tide was turning but too many people are partying indoors.

I have no idea what the point of that briefing was, so I'm following with interest.

They were pretty clear that they are expecting successes with the vaccines over the coming months.

They only said 6 months back in March so we didn't get too depressed. A second wave was always on the cards and they are trying to slow it down to stop the nhs getting overwhelmed. If that becomes too much , then the whole thing breaks apart.
It is a tightrope to walk here.

The tide turned in terms of the NHS was no longer in danger of being overwhelmed but the situation was and still is evolving. They essentially said that a vaccine was the only way out as it’s worldwide and whilst there has been much progress it’s not there yet so we will be living in uncertainty until then. We know how it spreads and we are all responsible to minimise it.

I'm assuming that after 6 more months there is very very likely to be a vaccine, even if not everyone can be vaccinated that soon - even if the vaccination programme is underway it will be a boost and will save lives. 6 more months of scientific research means even more treatment options, too - there are a number of very promising studies being done. 6 more months and we're also past the peak of the flu season so you're taking one vulnerability out of the equation meaning fewer deaths. And we'll be heading back into spring when most respiratory viruses lose their power for several reasons, so again, fewer deaths from Covid overall.

Did I imagune the part where he showed the slide with all the djfferent vaccine developments on, talked about how the UK was signed up, and said the hope is that by the middle of next year they will have started to distribute to vulnerable populations? It's not a given, but there is clearly some optimism around the vaccines

@ksohh0

They were pretty clear that they are expecting successes with the vaccines over the coming months.

I thought PV said they didn’t know yet if they’d work but info was “pointing in the right direction” or something.

If things will be better in 6 months only if a vaccine then ok, but I think a lot of people feel misled after the last lockdown and then we are not quite back where we started, but not far off.

Yes people partied inside! I don’t agree with rule breaking but there is only so long people can be expected to live without social contact which is why I was hoping for some reassurance about things being different in 6 months. I think there’ll be substantial compliance for 6 months (subject to what the measures are, of course). I don’t think they’ll have the public onside much longer if we are still being asked to curtail out freedoms with no end in sight.

Partly, it will be spring so conditions for virus less optimal.

Partly, trying to reduce how incredibly fucking depressing it sounds.

Hopefully partly also a vaccine...

I think a lot of people feel misled after the last lockdown and then we are not quite back where we started, but not far off

Did you genuinely think they meant after lockdown it would all go away and everything go back to how it was before? I didn't interpret any of the messaging that way and was never expecting it, so I am surprised that people held that belief.

@FractionalGains quite honestly, I don't know why anyone would expect this to go away without a vaccine. Measures temporarily reduce the spread, that's it. We will know in six months if these vaccines are likely to work, if none look hopeful at that point they will have to totally re-assess the approach. The hope is they won't have to.

They are attempting to warn us that restrictions are coming for Ag least they next six months probably longer. They talked about the vaccine didn't they and it may be available early next year. So in six months. Basically the scientists are telling us what the PM is too pathetic to actually come out and say which is stay home, stop mixing outside your household, self isolate or yet more unnecessary deaths will occur. It's not just young people being blamed now, it's everyone who needs to change their behaviour again. And the PM is going to have to accept he has to make unpopular expensive decisions about workplaces, pubs, sport.

Or we accept lots of people dying

@user1536853684

Partly, it will be spring so conditions for virus less optimal.

Partly, trying to reduce how incredibly fucking depressing it sounds.

Hopefully partly also a vaccine...

This.

@user1536853684

I think a lot of people feel misled after the last lockdown and then we are not quite back where we started, but not far off

Did you genuinely think they meant after lockdown it would all go away and everything go back to how it was before? I didn't interpret any of the messaging that way and was never expecting it, so I am surprised that people held that belief.

I didn’t think covid would have disappeared but I thought there would be a plan beyond asking us to forego human contact for extended and indefinite periods, with no actual plan to exit from this unless and until a vaccine comes.

You only need to see the posts on MN about “ripping the plaster off” and words to the effect to know that lots of people are of the view that if this isn’t going to actually solve anything, why should they comply? And that concerns me, because we will all suffer if people don’t follow the rules.

[quote ksohh0]@FractionalGains quite honestly, I don't know why anyone would expect this to go away without a vaccine. Measures temporarily reduce the spread, that's it. We will know in six months if these vaccines are likely to work, if none look hopeful at that point they will have to totally re-assess the approach. The hope is they won't have to.[/quote]
What might that new approach look like though? Is there any alternative way other than indefinite social distancing for potentially years? That’s what I’m trying to get my head around.

I am hopeful about a vaccine though (not that I have any expertise in this area!). It seems lots aren’t, and again that may affect compliance. I think the WHO have said not to expect a silver bullet from a vaccine.

I really hope there's going to be a lot more clear explaining of stuff.

I think they should do a grid of all the stuff it's is clear from social media that people don't understand.

Then go on telly and explain the living fuck out of it all.

Because if people don't understand the situation then they won't understand what difference the restrictions make. And we need to pull together.

Plus posts saying "hindsight/crystal ball/ no one knows what's going to happen" make me want to weep.

Honestly, people are being selective about what PV and CW have said in the past.

They have previously presented data to show predicted waves of infection. They have constantly stated we are in a marathon not a sprint. They have constantly said that we are at the limits of what we can do without spread returning.

People have become lax, socialising is increasing and we are paying the price for our own lack of attention and care. It was clearly spelt out. We could expect local lockdowns. We could expect enforcement.

There are no easy solutions. There are no quick fixes. no vaccine until the spring of 2021. I don’t know why anyone concluded there would be. The scientists have said over and over, it would take 18-24 months.

Yes chavvy it would be good if they could do regular myth-debunking briefings! But it also needs disseminating via social media, translating for ethnic minorities etc.

I think they meant "until winter is over", ie when flu and other respiratory viruses are mainly out the way.

BJ said re the 12 weeks he was confident we would turn the tide and “send coronavirus packing”.

I watched every briefing and I was left with the impression that we would be able to trace and isolate the infected and keep a lid on it that way. CW was clear social distancing was here for a while, but it wasn’t in the context of not being able to see your own immediate family.

I don’t much like the implication that people are stupid for hoping there wouldn’t be a 6 month lockdown over winter which will get us not very far unless there’s a vaccine early next year.

To many people not listening.

Only the people can stop this thing

What do you think all that previous testing of the vaccine is for? They won't inject 30.000 people with something that they know doesn't work. They know it has an effect, they just have to figure out how big that effect is (no vaccine works for 100% of the people) and which side effecrs can be expected and how often. Also, we have learned a lot the past six months on hoe to treat covid patients and survival rates are hoing up. In another 6 months we will know so much more.

Also, you don't have to trust just one politician spouting whatever, there is a WHO that advises plus that literally every country on the globe is dealing with this virus. There is a lot of information out there.

Because spring hits in march so will not be as bad as winter. Also vaccine progress (hopefully).

I would also urge people to reflect on the limited control we have over the impact of the flu every winter. It’s been a health issue for decades. We have a vaccine. We have treatments and we plan for months on how to deal with it. But..

Every year the flu presents a challenge for health systems everywhere. Frequently pushing them to the brink, resulting in deaths, cancelled operations and redirection of Health resources. Everywhere in the world.

We just about control the flu with vaccines and treatment. After decades and with inbuilt immunity.

Can we get real on the threat that Covid posses and that there is no easy solution. All responses impact on death rates, employment, the economy and our freedom.

It's more a seasonal thing - autumn and winter are always the worst time for viruses etc so the normal pressure on the NHS will be exacerbated by covid. It was always going to happen even if everyone did everything right. In the same way that flu cases get bad every winter.

@AWaspOnAWindowReturns

I have no idea what the point of that briefing was, so I'm following with interest.

It was a shot across the bows of the public. A warning that restrictions will come back in if sections people do not amend their current habits.