For people who don’t understand why hospital admissions/ death rates aren’t yet rising in line with a rise in cases..

[Fast90]

Just want to make a point really as there seems to be a lot of sweeping confusion across mumsnet (and seemingly the population as a whole).

Hospital admissions/ deaths aren’t yet rising in line with a rise in cases because when we were at what is generally considered to have be the first peak of the pandemic and we think about the number of people dying, we weren’t routinely testing. We have no point of reference as to how many people in the population had the virus. The virus was therefore likely to have been far, far more prevalent in society than it is at this moment in time. The confirmed case figures are skewed for this reason. You can’t draw a parallel between the number of cases in April/ May compared to the number of cases now.

That’s not to say we’re not heading back to where we were originally, but I thought I’d make the point for those who don’t quite get it..

I understand the science behind it. Not completely as I'm not a scientist, but enough to realise why they need to slow the spread of this if they can.
The problem is some people think it's all rubbish. It's like pushing water up hill!

The problem isn't that people don't realise that there will be deaths. The problem is that they think most of the deaths will be in people who don't matter much anyway.

Hospital admissions and deaths are rising though, slowly but surely.

you are right @Nellodee , it feels that a lot of people have the view of "well it wont kill me or those who i love so i dont care" or the "well we need heard immunity so we will have to risk losing some older folk"

My son is high-risk due to his lung disability, i am terrified for him

where we are, I often am in the minority wearing a facemask around the shops and social distancing does not seem to be a thing

Except hospital admissions and deaths ARE rising, so it can’t all be explained away by increased testing.

@SpuriouserAndSpuriouser

Except hospital admissions and deaths ARE rising, so it can’t all be explained away by increased testing.

But then the deniers come back saying the numbers are only small. Obviously they don't understand how quickly they could increase due to exponential growth.

@SpuriouserAndSpuriouser yes of course they’re rising, but not in parallel with what was happening as we were hurtling towards the peak of the pandemic. Though no doubt if we carry on as we are, we’ll be back to where we were.

@Badbadbunny exactly

@BimbleTea

you are right *@Nellodee* , it feels that a lot of people have the view of "well it wont kill me or those who i love so i dont care" or the "well we need heard immunity so we will have to risk losing some older folk"

My son is high-risk due to his lung disability, i am terrified for him

where we are, I often am in the minority wearing a facemask around the shops and social distancing does not seem to be a thing

for me it's not that your son's life doesn't matter nor the 90yo elderly man's life in a care home, but for these people to safe there will be others that will die if we go into full lockdown as of today,

undiagnosed cancer people lives for example if again NHS blocks anything that isn't covid. I've a friend who had a doctor appointment in may 2020 and it was cancelled and moved to 2021 despite she referred because of having ovarian pains (which already takes a process to be referred) or someone in Cornwall (one of the lowest numbers in the uk) who is suicidal borderline and a full lockdown will make them commit suicide.

so why is their live less important than others? all people should really matter so a balance should be found

[quote Fast90]@SpuriouserAndSpuriouser yes of course they’re rising, but not in parallel with what was happening as we were hurtling towards the peak of the pandemic. Though no doubt if we carry on as we are, we’ll be back to where we were.[/quote]
Well, quite. Unless something is done they’ll rise faster and we’ll be in trouble.

And also, one of the reasons that hospital admissions and deaths aren't rising in line with the number of infections is that it's tending to be younger people who are testing positive now, who are less likely to need hospitalisation.

Cancelled appointments for cancer care won't go away if we ignore covid. Whilst the case you are detailing is for a possible new case and I'm not going to comment on it as I don't know the details, I know that during the first wave oncologists had to decide whether their cancer patients were at a greater risk of dying from covid if they came to hospital treatment than the benefit they might gain from the treatment (often an experimental drug trial). They were difficult decisions for the oncologists to make and if we do nothing to keep the case numbers down the hospitals will be full of covid patients again and they will have to make those decisions again.
Yes a pandemic may sadly lead to excess deaths from non-covid deaths but that is one of the problems with a pandemic. Just ignoring the virus doesn't make those problems go away and prevent the non covid deaths.

all people should really matter so a balance should be found

Indeed, the NHS massively over-reacted by closing down everything except covid. They can't be allowed to do that again. They need to find a way to keep services happening alongside covid - they've had six months to plan for it, so it needs to happen this time.

Anecdotally, colleagues are reporting that people (even older people) are tending to be less unwell , so far at least. They are coming in and going out. I wonder whether SD, masks etc are reducing the initial viral dose ( as has been suggested in some papers) or whether we've got better Vit D levels after a long summer....

@JS87

Cancelled appointments for cancer care won't go away if we ignore covid. Whilst the case you are detailing is for a possible new case and I'm not going to comment on it as I don't know the details, I know that during the first wave oncologists had to decide whether their cancer patients were at a greater risk of dying from covid if they came to hospital treatment than the benefit they might gain from the treatment (often an experimental drug trial). They were difficult decisions for the oncologists to make and if we do nothing to keep the case numbers down the hospitals will be full of covid patients again and they will have to make those decisions again. Yes a pandemic may sadly lead to excess deaths from non-covid deaths but that is one of the problems with a pandemic. Just ignoring the virus doesn't make those problems go away and prevent the non covid deaths.

Trouble is that come oncology depts closed down and made no contact with patients to tell them how to contact their support staff/oncologist. My OH was mid cancer treatment and got a curt phone call literally on his way out of the door for treatement that it was cancelled and they'd contact him to re-arrange. Weeks went past without contact. He started phoning to chase, but only ever got an answering service which never called back. We went in person to the oncology dept to find it shuttered, no signs or notices. We went to reception but they didn't have any other contact details. Communication was impossible. It took nearly 3 months before he managed to even talk to the receptionists and another month before he could talk to his oncologist to try to get treatment started again.

I appreciate oncologists may think they know best, but the patient should be given a choice - in my OH's case, he had no choice, no information, nothing. Just 3 months of stress that was completely unnecessary had the oncology dept actually communicated what was happening, emergency telephone contacts, etc.

It was as if the entire dept has disappeared from the face of the Earth. We later found out they'd moved to a different hospital, but made no provision for telephone calls transfer, informing patients, etc. Typical NHS admin/management cock up.

Yes I agree @EasterIssland - I am not saying we should put hospitals back into lockdown but rather pointing out how many people are not adhering to social distancing or mask wearing. Just doing those two things could surely help stem this rise but many people seem to not care. For example, I have a friend whose child had a temperature and feeling generally unwell over the weekend and she is still sending him into nursery today and none of their family will be isolating.

I do certainly get the frustration and worry regarding hospitals being so strict on not treating things that arent Covid still - I am still waiting for bowel investigations due to bleeding and weight loss; I have been told I am not currently a priority so shall remain on their waiting list until they deem it okay to investigate.

@BimbleTea

Yes I agree *@EasterIssland* - I am not saying we should put hospitals back into lockdown but rather pointing out how many people are not adhering to social distancing or mask wearing. Just doing those two things could surely help stem this rise but many people seem to not care. For example, I have a friend whose child had a temperature and feeling generally unwell over the weekend and she is still sending him into nursery today and none of their family will be isolating.

I do certainly get the frustration and worry regarding hospitals being so strict on not treating things that arent Covid still - I am still waiting for bowel investigations due to bleeding and weight loss; I have been told I am not currently a priority so shall remain on their waiting list until they deem it okay to investigate.

sorry to hear about your investigations, hope you soon get viewed.

re: your friend she's being selfish however, I also think if tests were easier to get at the moment and we would get an answer back soon (my dh's boss is still waiting for a result since Thursday) then it'd be much easier. many families will be in the position of isolate and lose one day of income that could mean paying the bills or food , or pretend nothing happened and carry on.