Is 45 years old considered high risk?? What age is “high risk”

[Sb2012]

Is 45 considered high risk? DH is 45 healthy and fit with no underlying health issues. Up to now I always thought he would have minimal risks concerning Covid 19, however I recently learnt from my mum that a 46 year old lady (neighbour) passed away from the virus. My mum says she didn’t “appear” to have any underlying health issues. It instantly made me think about her 3 young boys (single mum)
I didn’t know the lady personally but knew her younger brother from high school. Got me kind of thinking as to what they mean by “high risk” also what conditions put someone into high risk category? I know being Male and BAME is a factor. What about things like asthma is that under the category of lung disease? Or is lung disease more specifically conditions like COPD Or severe asthma etc. DH doesn’t have asthma but I have family members who have mild asthma so got me thinking.

Risk is about populations not about individuals.

70 yrs old is the usual threshold quoted for 'high risk' re covid. Else > 65 or > 80.

There's a risk calculator somewhere online...
In meantime, afaik, from most to least important risk factors for bad outcomes from covid infection are

older age (especially being over 70)
being male
A small number of specific health conditions (asthma that never sends you to hospital is not one of them)
being Asian or black
poverty or mental illness

This gives you a probability of dying if you catch it

As posted else where on here

alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/

Risk tolerance is personal, but I would say a 46 year old female is low

Theres a covid age thread.
Men add 5.

A 46 year old woman living in poverty is far more likely to die than a 46 year old woman on an above average income. Poverty is relative, many people do live in poverty than we might recognise. I volunteer at a food bank and most of our clients look perfectly 'managing' on the outside.

I'm older and considered low to medium risk. I've had covid and to be honest I've had worse colds. He fact your mum said she didn't seem to have health problems doesn't mean she didn't

Risk doubles roughly every six years, so - the average 45 year old is 16 times less at risk of a 70 year old.

Thanks for the words of wisdom.
Midgebabe: thanks for that link. I just used that link and calculated DH Covid age and it’s low risk feel a bit better. I know nothing’s guaranteed, but it is a useful tool!

@ChaChaCha2012

A 46 year old woman living in poverty is far more likely to die than a 46 year old woman on an above average income. Poverty is relative, many people do live in poverty than we might recognise. I volunteer at a food bank and most of our clients look perfectly 'managing' on the outside.

Don’t mean to sound dumb, but I genuinely don’t 100% get this link between poverty and higher risk for Covid. Is it the obvious reason of possibly being malnourished from not having access to good nutrition? Also would that mean that the “better off” are more likely to be over weight or even obese (Sedentary life style, affordability of indulgent foods, alcohol etc) So are therefore actually at a higher risk as BMI is a factor for complication with Covid? Like I said apologies if I said sound ignorant or blatantly thick, but I actually don’t fully understand the link.

Poverty has a big impact on life expectancy in general, so it must be all the factors that shorten lives normally - eg stress, overcrowding, manual work, poor dentistry, poor diet etc etc

No he isn’t at high risk. No need to worry.

The highest risk are those with comorbidities (the shielding list had no age categories at all)

How about giving up on the idea of trying to quantify/justify risk of death, and think of it as a disease that could make you really shittily ill for a few weeks, and might lead to a needs to convalesce for many weeks beyond that. That you really don't want to catch.

And then decide what precautions you are going to take in that basis.

No it's not high risk if he's otherwise healthy. My mum age 51 has had Covid, recovered fine and works frontline NHS.

Well everyone 50+ will be offered a normal flu vaccine this winter. The older you get, the higher risk, particularly as you may not be aware of other health issues. Was she overweight?

@DirtyBlonde

The highest risk are those with comorbidities (the shielding list had no age categories at all)

How about giving up on the idea of trying to quantify/justify risk of death, and think of it as a disease that could make you really shittily ill for a few weeks, and might lead to a needs to convalesce for many weeks beyond that. That you really don't want to catch.

And then decide what precautions you are going to take in that basis.

this.

Also op there is still lots being learned and things we think we know but can't yet 'prove'. It's not the difference between going out and breaking the rules vs shielding. Everyone should be hygienic and cautious. You do not want to catch this, end of. If everyone was just sensible we would be in a much better place right now.

Don’t mean to sound dumb, but I genuinely don’t 100% get this link between poverty and higher risk for Covid. Is it the obvious reason of possibly being malnourished from not having access to good nutrition?
Also would that mean that the “better off” are more likely to be over weight or even obese Rather the other way around. Unavailability/cost of healthier foods means that those at the bottom end of the income scale are more likely to be obese. Then add in all the other aspects - more likely to be in a job where you can't work at home, unable to afford to take time off, more likely to have to travel by public transport, more likely to be living in a house where you can't isolate in the household, etc, and it's no surprise that there's a link between poverty and poor Covid outcomes.

@BabyLlamaZen

Well everyone 50+ will be offered a normal flu vaccine this winter. The older you get, the higher risk, particularly as you may not be aware of other health issues. Was she overweight?

She was definitely not obese from what I can remember, however she was probably slightly overweight. My heart just breaks for her children. She was a single mum. She had 3 boys. Eldest 18 and youngest 6 years old. The youngest has autism too. She may very well have had an underlying health condition that people outside her immediate family are not aware of.

That's truly awful op :( yes, also very unlucky.

@DirtyBlonde

The highest risk are those with comorbidities (the shielding list had no age categories at all)

How about giving up on the idea of trying to quantify/justify risk of death, and think of it as a disease that could make you really shittily ill for a few weeks, and might lead to a needs to convalesce for many weeks beyond that. That you really don't want to catch.

And then decide what precautions you are going to take in that basis.

Good advice. I think that’s a really good way to look at it. I hate being struck down with even a “normal” winter cold virus, knocks the stuffing out of me every time, so yeah I will continue to follow the recommendations to protect ourselves as a family from this virus.

I think it's important to remember that how at risk we all are have been developed by the government to make sweeping decisions about groups of the population. There will always be outliers, my nephew was fit and healthy, he died at 23 of something he should have brushed off in a week.

My former personal trainer was found dead at the side of the road having collapsed on his bike, he'd had a heart attach at 28.

My great auntie is 98, fell at home and broke her ankle, she has a whole host of risk factors and tested positive for covid, she was discharged home with a boot when she was ready and had no complications of covid.

There is a real risk of 'othering' people in order to make ourselves feel less worried. He has underlying conditions, she was obese, that family are BAME, and on and on.

My son is medium-high risk according to their criteria, he is Mixed race and asthmatic. 99% of the time he is perfectly healthy, but f the worst happened people would reassure themselves that it couldn't affect us as he was 'high risk'

Make the decision as a family that you will do what you can to avoid catching or spreading Covid, minimising risks where possible.

Here are the deaths by age in English hospitals, yes you can still get ill even if you don’t have to go to hospital but it does show you who is most at risk.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-20-September-2020.xlsx

There is also data for gender, which is just under 50% less likely to die of it than men.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-17-September-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

45 isn't high risk, it's minimal.

These are the ONS 51,501 deaths in England and Wales by age up to August 14th

[quote CassandraKnew]45 isn't high risk, it's minimal.

These are the ONS 51,501 deaths in England and Wales by age up to August 14th

Huh. Those are interesting stats @CassandraKnew .. really shows the jumps! I wonder how many 90+ people there actually are in the UK. 11,000 of them to have died strikes me might be pretty high percentage 😞 but as my 89 year old Granny said before she died last month, ‘I lived my best life. I’ve met my grandchildren, seen them get married & met my great grandchildren. When it’s my time, I’m at peace’. It’s honestly seen me through the sadness of loosing her. I know she was happy.

@CassandraKnew Some really good info here. Thanks for posting this I’m sure lots of us will find this data useful.
Guys I feel so much better now. It’s strange when you have been shut off from the real outside world for so long (had a high risk pregnancy and been home on bed rest since March) the mind starts imagining the least likely and worse case scenarios despite the obvious facts. I also think the stressful pregnancy and all the hormones haven’t helped and made me somewhat more paranoid than usual 🤦‍♀️

If we isolate care homes and do quick testing in them, covid isn't enough of a problem to do lockdowns and ruin the livelihoods of younger people.

If you use the ONS stats to calculate the average age at death it comes out at just over 80! It's a care home problem that was mishandled by sending old people perhaps in hospital with a broken hip etc, untested back to care homes to infect other old people.