Operation moonshot could work if tests are independent

[notevenat20]

I read a lot of negative comments here about operation moonshot. The argument is that if 1% of tests give false positives then that means 670,000 people self isolating for no reason every day.

But...If the false positives happen by chance and are independent, then the next day only 6,700 of those would still be off work and the rest can go back to work. The day after it would be 67.

Does anyone know if false positives are in fact independent in a statistical sense?

I asked this on another thread and didn’t get a response.

There is some info in a BMJ article here.
www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1808.full.pdf

Specificity is the important number. From what I can see they assume a specificity of 95% for the hypothetical test, and then their calculations assume that false positives are independent. But I don’t know why they assume that.

Operation moonshot, more like Operation cumshot

Operation moonshot, more like Operation cumshot

Is that good, bad, plausible or implausible?

I’d honestly settle for available and fast testing for symptomatic people so they don’t have to isolate unnecessarily. And potentially mass testing of people entering care homes.

Operation Moonshit might possibly be deliverable by the Chinese. No way will our government achieve it this side of 2030.

Operation moonshot may work if it was run by people who know what they are doing

Unfortunately the current government is not only corrupt but also totally incompetent. So we are fucked

The test doesn't exist.
Who is going to pay to test 26 million people daily?

The test doesn't exist.

The first twenty minutes of www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cszkx4 are really informative about testing. In particular, we only need a test that works during the short period you are infective. There are a lot of tests that exist it turns out.

Does a test exist that tries to give a clear result 20 minutes after I give it my genetic material while still in my home?

Operation moonshot will not work because it costs the entire nhs annual budget! The other reasons are not actually that relevant we do not have the money or the technology to make it a practical plan in the first instance!

It feels like a nutty Donald Trump proclamation, doesn't it?
"Lock Her Up"
"Operation Warp Speed"
"Mexico will pay for the wall"
"Garden Bridge...".... "Bridge to Scotland"