3497 cases announced on Saturday but so many people going untested.

[LavaSpider]

Another 3497 cases have been announced for the last 24 hours, but given it's been almost impossible to get any kind of test in many areas of the country, I'm assuming the real number of new cases is far, far higher.
Do they think they manipulate the numbers of available tests so the cases don't appear to go up so fast? Nothing would surprise me with this government.

I hadn't realised about the 28 day change - that might go some way to explaining why the excess deaths figure has risen again.

It had been very high, which was attributed to people not attending A&E etc, then dipped down to less than the 5 year average in July, which was explained because Covid had ended lives a few months prematurely in some cases, but now ONS report that excess deaths are back up (w/e 28th Aug, 791 more than 5 year average). Some will be cancers and conditions that were not treated when health services reduced, but any Covid death over 28 days will be contributing to that figure, and not being recorded as such.

Regards long Covid...

Are we just expecting to recover from a respiratory illness too quickly. Long recovery isn't unusual with such illnesses. For example, if you have pneumonia, it can take weeks and months to recover fully.

I was hospitalised with it a few year back. I was off work for 7 weeks, it was several months before I can do a lot of stuff and it was at least a year before I was fully fit again. Luckily I now have no long term lung damage, a few years on, though I am more susceptible to such illnesses apparently. Many people do suffer longer term damage though. This kind of recovery time was considered the norm, no one thought it odd it took so long to recover from it,

So maybe we are just expecting to recover from a major illness - if we are unlucky enough to get a bad bout - too quickly. If someone got it in March then it's still only been 6-7 months after all.

Can’t believe the complacency on this thread.

@Aragog

Regards long Covid...

Are we just expecting to recover from a respiratory illness too quickly. Long recovery isn't unusual with such illnesses. For example, if you have pneumonia, it can take weeks and months to recover fully.

I was hospitalised with it a few year back. I was off work for 7 weeks, it was several months before I can do a lot of stuff and it was at least a year before I was fully fit again. Luckily I now have no long term lung damage, a few years on, though I am more susceptible to such illnesses apparently. Many people do suffer longer term damage though. This kind of recovery time was considered the norm, no one thought it odd it took so long to recover from it,

So maybe we are just expecting to recover from a major illness - if we are unlucky enough to get a bad bout - too quickly. If someone got it in March then it's still only been 6-7 months after all.

My respiratory consultant thinks that it takes a year to get over sepsis, which, a serious systemic bout of infection would effectively equate to, according to him.

@Aragog

Regards long Covid...

Are we just expecting to recover from a respiratory illness too quickly. Long recovery isn't unusual with such illnesses. For example, if you have pneumonia, it can take weeks and months to recover fully.

I was hospitalised with it a few year back. I was off work for 7 weeks, it was several months before I can do a lot of stuff and it was at least a year before I was fully fit again. Luckily I now have no long term lung damage, a few years on, though I am more susceptible to such illnesses apparently. Many people do suffer longer term damage though. This kind of recovery time was considered the norm, no one thought it odd it took so long to recover from it,

So maybe we are just expecting to recover from a major illness - if we are unlucky enough to get a bad bout - too quickly. If someone got it in March then it's still only been 6-7 months after all.

This. I had Varicella Pneumonia in 1996. More often than not, it's fatal in adults. I was in ICU for two weeks and in hospital for a further two. It was made very clear that my lungs would never fully recover. I had another three months off work and my attendance when I went back was around 60% for the next two years. I was constantly exhausted (even if I didn't do anything), had no physical strength, had constant headaches, loss of appetite, insomnia and joint pain. I also picked up every cough/cold/virus going around, all of which caused lung infections and I damned near lived on antibiotics. It was 7-8 years before I could describe myself as healthy again and that's allowing for my lungs being screwed. What's happening in some cases with Covid is not 'new' or 'different'.

Hardly anyone is dying

There is a lag between people going to hospital and eventually dying (is it about weeks iirc?) and hospitalisations are now increasing.

We need to remember that we have seen this pattern before - some hospitalisations, some arguing about whether it's too early/too late to lock down, and then whoomph we saw scary and increasing death rates which took months of hard lockdown to bring it under control.

If we end up with a 2nd lockdown it will be because of the incredibly short memories people have.

@CrunchyNutNC

Cases have been rising for 6 or 7 weeks now and we are yet to see this hear rise in deaths that some are proclaiming. In fact, deaths have been in single figures most days.

It is true that hospital admissions are rising in a small number of areas- this was always going to happen and these hotspots should be dealt with locally.

Countries like France and Spain which are apparently 6 weeks ahead of us are not seeing huge rises in hospitalisations and deaths- only 18 in France yesterday.

It's like waiting for the Easter/packed beaches/VE Day spikes all over again. I find the whole 'Just wait and deaths WILL happen' approach very distasteful and rather disturbing.

ecosse what magic do you think has happened that means that increases in infection are not going to lead to increases in hospitalisations and deaths?

@CrunchyNutNC

Because

1. The vast majority of infections are now in young people who will be lucky to even have symptoms,

1. Treatments have improved significantly,

1. We now have lots of precautions in place that we didn’t in March like social distancing and

1. Older and vulnerable people are aware of their risk and are taking sensible precautions.

Personally I’d go further and restart shielding on a voluntary basis, with all wages fully funded by the government and things like food delivery working properly.

@SophieGiroux

I wonder if it's because only the deaths that have happened within 28 days of a positive test are reported now. If it takes 5 weeks for someone to die of it then it won't be counted

How many times. This is NOT TRUE.

if you die of covid even if it is 29 days later you will get recorded as a covid death.

If you die after 28 days later of something unrelated but tested positive for covid to start with then you won't be counted because covid had nothing to do with your death.

Why do you want essentially random deaths to be counted in the figures?

[quote Ecosse]@CrunchyNutNC

Because

1. The vast majority of infections are now in young people who will be lucky to even have symptoms,

1. Treatments have improved significantly,

1. We now have lots of precautions in place that we didn’t in March like social distancing and

1. Older and vulnerable people are aware of their risk and are taking sensible precautions.

Personally I’d go further and restart shielding on a voluntary basis, with all wages fully funded by the government and things like food delivery working properly.[/quote]

1. The cases in young people will start carrying over to others, you can't corral a virus in one segment of society without segregation.
2. Treatments improving only helps when there is adequate hospital capacity to treat those who need, which may change if numbers increase significantly.

Hence we need to keep a lid on this now, rather than risk numbers/hospitalisations increasing to the point where there isn't the capacity to adequately treat everyone who needs it.

As they have already discovered, the problem isn't bricks-and-mortar hospital provision (which can be relatively easily solved by nightingale hospitals), it's the availability of enough skilled and trained people - which we can't magic up overnight.

It might be accurate to say that things aren't bad at the current moment. But we know from recent experience that they can go very bad very quickly, and it takes a long time to get back under control.

If you die with Covid after 28 days even if it’s on the death certificate, it is not included in the daily announced government figures. It is only included in the weekly ONS figures.

On the death certificate or with a positive test. Still not included.

@CrunchyNutNC

This kind of scaremongering is totally unhelpful. Hospital capacity has never been overwhelmed at any point in the U.K. in fact, many of the retired and student NHS staff who were called in to help had nothing to do!

Hospitals have not been overwhelmed anywhere in Europe- only 7% of beds in Spain are currently occupied by COVID patients. There is no evidence that patients will be turned away and it is totally unhelpful to suggest as such.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

"people who died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included".

Great there will be herd immunity soon then.
Let's just let it run it's course, those who are risk averse, scared or shielding can continue, whilst everyone else gets on.
I'm not going anywhere except my own bubble and neither are my family. I don't expect others to stop their lives to protect me.

But, I don't agree with keeping the economy going with coffee houses and pubs, it's not necessary. As long as we have food, that's about as much economy as we need.

Agree with the posts about "long covid" it's a virus, they can take a long time to recover from! My dd took 2 years to recover from pneumonia, she had to learn to walk again, and eat again after being tube fed. Anything that affects the lungs can be deadly and have long consequences. Its not just covid.

@Devlesko

Great there will be herd immunity soon then. Let's just let it run it's course, those who are risk averse, scared or shielding can continue, whilst everyone else gets on. I'm not going anywhere except my own bubble and neither are my family. I don't expect others to stop their lives to protect me.

But, I don't agree with keeping the economy going with coffee houses and pubs, it's not necessary. As long as we have food, that's about as much economy as we need.

Are you being serious? As long as we have food that's about as much economy as we need? Jesus.

@Sweettea1

Maybe if people just isolated instead of being tested we wouldn't be heading for another lock down i understand some people need to know for work/personal reasons but if you can stay at home and just isolate instead of being tested then the numbers will stay low an no 2nd lock down an no scaring every1 silly getting tested does not change the outcome just isolate. The majority of these people will recover if not all of them so why do we need to know they have it.

How can you do this? If you have symptoms, without a negative test, you have to isolate for ten days and your household for fourteen days. People just can't afford to do that, possibly multiple times. Of course people want a test if they have symptoms

Hospital capacity has never been overwhelmed at any point in the U.K.

Yes, because they stopped pretty much all other treatment bar emergency treatment and some cancer treatment, though not all.

Many patients have suffered delays to their ongoing treatment, some with serious consequences. How can this happen again if the numbers of Covid patients needing hospital care spirals again?

Hospital capacity has never been overwhelmed at any point in the U.K.
Easy to achieve when patients aren't admitted until It's too late. With coronavirus as with any illness, early treatment gives better chance of survival (and reduced risk of long-term damage).

A post on another thread mentioned how we don't publish our Covid recovery rates. France has been doing this for months. Why aren't we doing the same?

And, despite the don't-treat-until-sometimes-too-late approach, some hospitals were overwhelmed.
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-this-london-hospital-was-one-of-the-worst-hit-by-covid-19-how-is-it-managing-now-12059490

Hospital capacity has never been overwhelmed at any point in the U.K.

One of the reasons treatments have been more successful latterly, than at the peak, is because currently if you would benefit from hospitalisation you get a bed, people are admitted earlier and have better outcomes. At its peak last spring you needed to be worse before you were admitted, and the elderly were turfed back out to their care homes at the earliest opportunity. The hospitals may not have been overwhelmed (though you've forgotten that some did declare critical incident status and were effectively at full capacity) but only because they didn't admit everyone who would potentially benefit from earlier intervention.

It is also unhelpful to think about overall hospital capacity in the UK. If you need oxygen treatment and the hospitals near you are at capacity, then having plenty of beds 400 miles away isn't a huge help.

Hospitals in northern Italy were definitely severely overwhelmed so it’s wrong to say nowhere In Europe was. The U.K. tried so hard to stop this happening the messaging encouraged many to go to hospital too late. And all other treatments were cancelled. Despite this a few hospitals were overrun and declared an emergency/closed to new patients. So it’s wrong to say nowhere in the U.K. was overrun too

Normalcy bias is reassuring and comforting but dangerous

@CrunchyNutNC

Hospital capacity has never been overwhelmed at any point in the U.K.

One of the reasons treatments have been more successful latterly, than at the peak, is because currently if you would benefit from hospitalisation you get a bed, people are admitted earlier and have better outcomes. At its peak last spring you needed to be worse before you were admitted, and the elderly were turfed back out to their care homes at the earliest opportunity. The hospitals may not have been overwhelmed (though you've forgotten that some did declare critical incident status and were effectively at full capacity) but only because they didn't admit everyone who would potentially benefit from earlier intervention.

It is also unhelpful to think about overall hospital capacity in the UK. If you need oxygen treatment and the hospitals near you are at capacity, then having plenty of beds 400 miles away isn't a huge help.

^This.

Also agree with PPs about the symptom crossover with other illnesses - more reason for testing now to break a lot of chains, avoid lockdown, save lives, help the economy, save nhs resources as good testing means less growth of Covid cases and less long term Covid issues etc etc. People do have really really short memories.

Young people don't operate in silos - they mix with all ages through family, work, school etc. Yes also to publishing recovery rates. The testing situation needs to improve and routine testing of teachers also needs to happen. If we want more normality, we need more testing.