Moonshot or Pie in the Sky?

[Snog]

Does Boris's so called moonshot plan have any real credibility?
Or am I right to dismiss it as moonshit?

All these big ideas when they can't get ordinary testing right, it's very draining.

I just want ordinary competent government. Couldn't give a stuff which party right now, although starmer sure looks reassuringly sensible at the moment.

thecatsatonthewall actually Kay Burley has been relatively good, and Julia Hartley Brewer positively savage. But the BBC....

Moonshite. They are barking mad, and going to waste taxpayers' money. Plus if they do actually succeed what's the bet it'll be after Covid-19 has been banished to the history books?

@LearnedResponse

Everyone agrees that (in the absence of a strong vaccine) testing on a huge scale is the most feasible way to get this situation under long term control.

Totally disagree with this. The problem with mass testing of a large population is false positives. If, for example, the test is accurate 90% of the time, then for every 1m people you test who are not infected then 100,000 will get a false positive.

You need effective testing closely aligned with robust contact tracing. So you are only testing those that have a strong probability of being infected. That brings down the false positives significantly. Unfortunately track and trace is a total shambles

@FarTooSkinny false positives are very, very easy to deal with. You test positives again. Then in your 90% specificity example You are left with only 1,000 false positives out of your million. So you improve your 90% to 99%.

Although IIRC current testing is over 99% specificity on first test anyway

So first test negative = negative and no further test needed
First test positive and second negative = negative
Two positives = positive

It gets more complicated in reality taking false negatives into account, but it’s close enough for illustrative purposes.

All in his little mind. Track and trace has failed. Testing is now also failing. Shortly there will be more children isolated than at school.

It's a load of shit.