R is now 1.2

[Littlemissdaredevil]

I’ve just had an email from Zoe. It states that R is now 1.2 in England, Scotland and Wales (and possibly 1.3 in Northern Ireland). This indicates that the number of people infected is growing not just that more infections are being picked up by testing.

Gulp.

It's not great but I'm surprised people are surprised tbh
Look at Spain and what's happening there
I think this was always on the cards unfortunately I just hope that hospitalisations stay down

oh no 😶

I hope they get a grip on it - would be awful to go backwards

Yep I've just read that email too...

Oh dear.

Yes, I had that too. Would be interesting to have a breakdown from Zoe of how many people with active cases of COVID have a mild case, like I did, how many are asymptomatic and how many have a bad case of it.

@Putmynewshoeson I feel the same, disappointed but surprised people are surprised, we seem to be following the predictions and modelling which was talked about at the start of summer. Some spikes in August, infections start to rise steadily and significantly in September and hospitalisation rates high by the end of October. Someone I know who works for a hospital trust in the South West of England said that’s what they were anticipating in the NHS and so far that’s what they’re still working to.

So I guess that means tightening of lockdown rules for October/November with the hope of getting things under control by Christmas?

[quote Bellebelle]@Putmynewshoeson I feel the same, disappointed but surprised people are surprised, we seem to be following the predictions and modelling which was talked about at the start of summer. Some spikes in August, infections start to rise steadily and significantly in September and hospitalisation rates high by the end of October. Someone I know who works for a hospital trust in the South West of England said that’s what they were anticipating in the NHS and so far that’s what they’re still working to.

So I guess that means tightening of lockdown rules for October/November with the hope of getting things under control by Christmas?[/quote]
This

Swathes of MN have been gleefully looking forward to the second peak for months.

[quote Bellebelle]@Putmynewshoeson I feel the same, disappointed but surprised people are surprised, we seem to be following the predictions and modelling which was talked about at the start of summer. Some spikes in August, infections start to rise steadily and significantly in September and hospitalisation rates high by the end of October. Someone I know who works for a hospital trust in the South West of England said that’s what they were anticipating in the NHS and so far that’s what they’re still working to.

So I guess that means tightening of lockdown rules for October/November with the hope of getting things under control by Christmas?[/quote]
Wouldn't it be better to try to get it under control now rather than once things have truly escalated again?

I don’t get why people are surprised. It was suppressed under lockdown, as lockdown eases and people go out more there is more likelihood if catching it, especially if people don’t follow SD guidelines, won’t wear masks ( and yes i know some are excerpt, but other countries are making mask wearing mandatory with very very few if any exceptions, there was a poster on MN today saying where she was there are no exceptions) go on holiday and don’t quarantine etc etc.

@Jontysmum

Yes, I had that too. Would be interesting to have a breakdown from Zoe of how many people with active cases of COVID have a mild case, like I did, how many are asymptomatic and how many have a bad case of it.

This really. If the vast majority are mild or asymptomatic then I’m not too worried but if lots are getting seriously ill again that’s a different matter.

Yes, absolutely it would be better to get it under control now and not have this escalate. What I’m saying is that this was what was predicted would happen based on the expectations of the combination of lockdown easing and people becoming more relaxed.

I’m in Scotland and when the government here started to do things differently with lockdown and talked about trying to get to “Covid zero” I was totally for it and very optimistic. However as the weeks went on and I realised that so many people weren’t following the rules my optimism started to decline. While I’d rather not become resigned to things getting worse I am feeling more and more like we’re heading towards what was predicted.

Wouldn't it be better to try to get it under control now rather than once things have truly escalated again?

I guess its about balance again - not doing too much too soon which will affect the economy, working parents etc.

This was always on the cards, it's going exactly as predicted.

@MadameBlobby

Why do you post such Antagonising bullshit?

Swathes of MN have been gleefully looking forward to the second peak for months

No they haven't. People have been worried, concerned, scared, certain....

NO ONE has been gleefully looking forward to a send peak.

I beg to differ there is so many who want lockdowns second waves so they can be proved right and rest of us struggle.

It's like some weird fetish they have got.

@HeresMe

I beg to differ there is so many who want lockdowns second waves so they can be proved right and rest of us struggle.

It's like some weird fetish they have got.

Yep

Swathes of MN have been gleefully looking forward to the second peak for months

I don't think I've seen anyone gleeful at the prospect of a second peak.

I've seen many people worried that the impact of some people's actions and government incompetence might lead to a second peak.

The most gleeful people I've seen are people ignoring the rules and delighting in telling everyone that they've been to packed beaches / out in busy pubs / meeting with lots of different households/ don't see why they should have to wear a mask and "so much for a second spike".

People warned about the inevitable challenges of opening schools in full. They were dismissed as scaremongers. Teachers were branded as work-shy militants who wanted to ruin education. Last week it turned out that the concerns were valid and now cases are on the rise, and the government this morning is gaslighting our children by blaming them for not following the apparently clear rules. Obviously it has nothing to do with millions of children being ordered back to school with no social distancing.

There's nothing gleeful about realising there's another spike on the way.

[quote AmelieTaylor]@MadameBlobby

Why do you post such Antagonising bullshit?

Swathes of MN have been gleefully looking forward to the second peak for months

No they haven't. People have been worried, concerned, scared, certain....

NO ONE has been gleefully looking forward to a send peak.[/quote]
I don’t agree with you. That’s alright, isn’t it?

Who is Zoe?

I don't think anyone wants a second wave, hopefully we act now and get it under control.

I think there are two groups the first that people say are 'gleeful' about a second wave that are worried for their, family, friends health. Then we have a second vocal group saying we should get on as normal and it kills whoever it kills. The first group then get more anxious and worried about a second wave as they hear people are not SD or wearing masks or whatever. The second group respond by becoming more vocal about breaking the guidelines and the circle goes on and on.

I don't think I sit in either group, I go out but take precautions probably like the majority in society.

Independent SAGE said schools would raise it 0.5 and since we were at 1 then...
Can only conclude from full schools therefore it is intentional to go into second wave now before winter.
The science has always predicted more that 1 wave. Generally with second one oct. (And bigger than the first. ).