New Zealand

[ConcernedAuntie]

Sorry if I have missed any updates but was it ever discovered how the infections in New Zealand started to rise again after so many days without a confirmed case?

I’d be interested to know this too.

I don’t have any reputable links but I did see a discussion where it was stated that the government couldn’t say 100% as their tracing reached a dead end but were putting weight on the theory it entered the count try through illegal means i.e boats linked to the drug trade.

I’m not sure I buy that myself and would like to see further studies on incubation periods and transmission in animals (we know house cats can contract it but at the moment they don’t transmit it).

Some people went over from the UK to visit a dying relative and were excused quarantine on compassionate grounds. Unfortunately they brought Covid back to the country.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/new-zealand-records-first-new-covid-19-cases-after-women-arrive-from-uk-carrying-virus

They linked one of the earliest infections in the new bout to the sharing of a lift in a hotel.

@Egghead68

Some people went over from the UK to visit a dying relative and were excused quarantine on compassionate grounds. Unfortunately they brought Covid back to the country.

That was a separate incident wasn’t it and clearly linked to international travel?

There was a later one where a family of four with no recent travel or contact with people who had recently travelled became symptomatic and tested positive.

Oh yes that might the one they thought was linked to packaging on imported food.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/world/new-zealand-new-coronavirus-cases-aukland-lockdown-a4522401.html%3famp

I'm in NZ and current theories are that it entered via a chilled food store from a delivery from Melbourne and/or through lift sharing in a quarantine facility.

@Cornettoninja

I’d be interested to know this too.

I don’t have any reputable links but I did see a discussion where it was stated that the government couldn’t say 100% as their tracing reached a dead end but were putting weight on the theory it entered the count try through illegal means i.e boats linked to the drug trade.

I’m not sure I buy that myself and would like to see further studies on incubation periods and transmission in animals (we know house cats can contract it but at the moment they don’t transmit it).

There is a fair amount of small (legitimate) boat traffic between NZ and Australia. Not all of that would involve immigration and customs declaration, though legally it should (which is thought to be behind previous biosecurity breaches, causing great financial impact to local food producers).

It's a reasonable bet that COVID could have been brought into NZ from Australia by yachties. Impossible to prove though, and no idea how this would be dealt with, other than a massive ongoing NZ Navy exercise in the Tasman and extensive radar and monitoring 360°.

Thanks @Malin52.

I know it must be huge task but I do wish they could establish the risk with food production/distribution for certain. It seems like a huge hole for infection control without more certainty and the opportunity to develop strategies to minimise the risk.

Iceland was also free of cases for a while. I think they were testing people on arrival, so maybe that missed cases there.

I appreciate it’s a legitimate possibility @PicsInRed, I think when I read it though it just seemed like a bit of a grasping explanation. I find it easier to get on board with the food distribution theory given the outbreaks in various meat production facilities.

I don’t know shit though so will concede that people who are better placed than me will have their reasons for the theories they’ve presented which far outweigh my internet education

All of these countries with tight restrictions- I'm seriously wondering how sustainable this is in the long term given it really looks like it's going to be around for a very very long time

At some point New Zealand will have to loosen these tight controls. They are horrendously expensive and incredibly damaging to the economy, besides which it's just not practical to carry on quarantining for months, possibly years on end.

@Cornettoninja

I appreciate it’s a legitimate possibility *@PicsInRed*, I think when I read it though it just seemed like a bit of a grasping explanation. I find it easier to get on board with the food distribution theory given the outbreaks in various meat production facilities.

I don’t know shit though so will concede that people who are better placed than me will have their reasons for the theories they’ve presented which far outweigh my internet education

Nah mate we're all internet educated these days, isn't it the way of the future? 😂

My theory's soley based on NZ's own mini lockdowns of the 90s and 2000s when exotic bio species snuck in and it was presumed in the end that the porous maritime border had something to do with it. Not sure we'll ever know for sure though and not sure it would be economic to address even if it were established to be the case.

They seem to have a vulnerable population with high levels of obesity and Maori which is maybe why they are doing it.

it really looks like it's going to be around for a very very long time

But on the positive side it’s also looking very likely that there will be vaccines available some time next year.

The comments that it's 'going to be around for a very very long time' baffle me. How is that news? There's every chance it'll be around in 50 years' time. You can still catch the Spanish Flu, it's considered a normal seasonal flu strain.

@TheDailyCarbuncle you can still contract bubonic plague too - I took an antibiotic for acne as a teenager (tetracycline) and it’s listed on the pamphlet as a treatment for it.

I think when people comment along those lines it’s about managing people’s expectations, so many people seem to think we should be done with it by now. They’re judging by their own tolerance levels instead of actual reality.

I took an antibiotic for acne as a teenager (tetracycline)
I think that it is amazing that something so commonplace can cure something that was once so feared.

Leper colonies were no longer needed once a treatment was found (streptomycin) (I think)

@StarCat2020 (love the name btw!) me too. It’s also what keeps me optimistic. We have some incredibly talented and knowledgable people working on this and every reason believe the cure/treatment/vaccine is within someone’s grasp. Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.

Many thanks for info. It seems that I haven't missed a big announcement saying the definite source of the infection had been traced.

You can still catch the Spanish Flu, it's considered a normal seasonal flu strain.

But it’s mutated since 1919, otherwise things would be a lot more serious!

You can still catch the Spanish Flu, it's considered a normal seasonal flu strain

And we now have a vaccine so it no longer causes pandemics.

Spanish Flu was from the H1N1 flu sub-group. The H1N1 flu sub-group continues to exist - indeed Swine Flu was from this group, but the Spanish Flu variant disappeared from 1920. It’s a fallacy therefore to say that you can catch Spanish Flu today.

It’s a bit like saying “I caught Covid-19 five years ago!” when actually you just caught a different, much less potent, coronavirus.