Any news on a vaccine?

[KenDodd]

Also, does covid seem to be getting LESS serious to you? I mean the illness once you have it, not the numbers.

Reading a quality newspaper every day will answer your questions

I don't know think the illness is getting any less serious. However, treatment is now a little better than it was at the beginning, and very sadly, many older people who contacted it are dead. It seems to be younger people getting it more, and they are usually less seriously affected than older groups, so don't make headlines.
The disease is still provoking many questions, particularly with regards to its long term effects on some people. It will be years before any meaningful conclusions can be drawn.

Thanks for the advice on reading a newspaper, I didn't think of that.

I know there are a lot of very knowledgeable people on here who might be ahead of the curve. Has anything been published in medical or scientific journals that hasn't made it into MSM? I see the US are saying they hope to have a vaccine by November? As I understand it the Russian and Chinese vaccines in widespread use are effectively at stage three trials, just like the Oxford vaccine, but have been put to use already?

US Trump are saying November becasue there's an election looming.

Well, I did wonder if it was just Trump propaganda, I don't think it is though. For a start a bet a significant number (all) of anti vaxxers are Trump supporters, could a vaccine promoted by Trump, lose them? Although in reality, anti vaxxers aren't going to vote for anyone other than Trump.

@KenDodd

Well, I did wonder if it was just Trump propaganda, I don't think it is though. For a start a bet a significant number (all) of anti vaxxers are Trump supporters, could a vaccine promoted by Trump, lose them? Although in reality, anti vaxxers aren't going to vote for anyone other than Trump.

What they say and what actually happens are two very different things. I seem to remember it being widely reported by some that we would have a vaccine available here by September, in fact some on MN have been very insistent that it was absolutely definite and that anyone advising caution was a doom monger.

Listening to some respected drs in the US they are cautiously optimistic that a vaccine might be available next summer but it depends on how successful the stage three trials are. I've not seen anyone say November, or certainly not anyone that I would trust.

It is entirely possible (although optimistic) that a vaccine will be available for limited use by the end of this year. Widespread, total population vaccination more likely to occur next year based on the progress of the various vaccine candidates.

The difficulty with providing a time frame stems from the fact that stage 3 trials require a certain number of people to actually catch the virus. The trials are blind and the hope is that when you "unblind" the trial all (or the vast majority) of the positive cases are in the placebo group. Without challenge trials (which are not currently being used for COVID as there are limited treatment options) there is limited control over who catches the virus and how quickly.

It is also necessary to trial the vaccine in various age groups etc to see what impact that has in efficacy. The Oxford trials are now in the very final stages, whether the data is ready to be submitted for approval by the end of this year will depend on the rate of infection in the trial volunteers.

I have followed the vaccine closely from the start and I remain cautiously hopeful of positive vaccine news this side of Christmas.

A very good video by Dr John Campbell was uploaded yesterday - do watch that, he's very hopeful we will have at least one vaccine by the end of the year, if not three.

Does the vaccine stop you getting it completely or just reduce the strain of it if you do get it? Also will being vaccinated mean you don't transmit it asymptomatically?

MHRA are consulting at the moment for unlicensed vaccines. No vaccine is available yet but legislation will be in place for a massive national programme.

@Concerned7777

The honest answer at this stage as I understand it is "we don't know for sure". The results of the initial trials have all been encouraging in terms of demonstrating an immune response. Whether that immune response is sufficient to be entirely protective isn't yet known.

Once we have the results of the phase 3 trials we will know more about the efficacy of the vaccines generally.

Obviously it is possible that there will be different levels of performance from different vaccines developed in different ways. The government has preliminary orders for, I believe, 6 different vaccine candidates so I would be hopeful that at least one of those candidates will work sufficiently well to make a real difference.

So have the phase three trials been looking at optimum dosage as well as efficacy in terms of protection against Covid? Has it been tested in different populations ie the elderly, immunosuppressed people, children? Or will those of us first in line to be vaccinated be the guinea pigs for them to find out that information?

I was listening to an interview with an American doctor who also explained how they don't yet know how long the immunity from the vaccine will last - so how do they handle that uncertainty if they roll it out early? Presumably you can't vaccinate people, lead them to believe they now have immunity only to later find out that immunity only lasted six months, particularly if the early adopters are actually those at highest risk?

Yes, phase 3 trials include older people and children. They also trial different doses and try the option of boosters to see how that impacts the immune response.

All those in the trial are monitored for at least a year as I understand it and their immunity levels will continue to be monitored throughout. They will also continue to test those in the trial to see if/when people test positive for the virus.

@Sunshinegirl82

Yes, phase 3 trials include older people and children. They also trial different doses and try the option of boosters to see how that impacts the immune response.

All those in the trial are monitored for at least a year as I understand it and their immunity levels will continue to be monitored throughout. They will also continue to test those in the trial to see if/when people test positive for the virus.

But before that has been concluded that might already have started vaccinating the general population? And somewhere in the world right now children are being vaccinated with a trial vaccine against an illness that is pretty harmless for them?

CrunchyCarrot

Thanks for the video, I watched all of it. Very hopefully!

Children are being vaccinated with the various vaccine candidate yes. They don't vaccinate the more at risk groups until all the safety trials have been concluded and the vaccine has been deemed to be safe. Later trials (where children and older people are included) are principally to establish how well the vaccine works.

It is unlikely that population wide vaccination will occur before Spring (I would have thought) and early trial candidates will then have been vaccinated for a fairly lengthy period of time, possibly as long as a year. The groups vaccinated early will be those most at risk/most likely to benefit from the vaccination.