What level would trigger local restrictions being put in place?

[mrshoho]

Looked at my borough and cases were 20 per 100000 in the week 20th to 26th August. The average area in England had 7. There was 50 confirmed cases up from 22 on the previous week. what level would it need to get to before local lockdowns are put in place?

I am also wondering this ( v similar in my borough) but don’t think there is any published figure as such, plus it depends on what is causing the increase as well ( so my borough it does look like community spread rather than say a factory outbreak - the positivity rate is also quite high which is concerning).

I’ve noticed here we are suddenly getting a lot of comms from the council and testing has really ramped up. I’m guessing those are the first stages when cars begin to rise, and if they don’t come under control others will follow.

I got the figures from the bbc page, screenshot attached. Keeping fingers crossed it doesn't take off again.

Thanks - sorry my post was confusing! I meant don’t think there are published numbers per hundred for when local lockdowns occur ( there is the PHE watchlist).

I'm wondering this as we have 26 cases per 100,000.

I think how they decide is based on more than just cases per 100,000 as a local area to us was put in the watchlist when we weren't even though we had a higher incidence. They also seem to sometimes add nearby areas. However from recent numbers I'd say when it gets to about 30 you are likely to be out on a watchlist which means they do more testing and then they decide what to do next. There is a PHE report published towards the end of each week that shows the changes - www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports#history

Isn’t it down to the local authority? Because it depends on the cause of the high figure, eg the level for an area could be high in cases of controlled outbreaks (eg in a factory) where they feel they’ve got everyone to isolate relevant to that outbreak so a wider local lockdown isn’t necessary, whereas the same number of cases splattered around via community spread would be harder to keep under control and more likely to need a local lockdown.

Oh yes I see what you mean Bighouse. I was also thinking how the UK removed Croatia from the safe list recently but I didn't think their case numbers were that high. I may be wrong though as it seems such a fast changing situation.

It's a little worrying Middleager as although only in the 20's I can see how quickly we could get into the 100's and start to impact on schools (When I saw your nickname previously I sounded it out as middle eager, it's only typing it out it's middle ager )

I'm assuming it's community infections rather than an isolated outbreak in my borough but only because there's been nothing in the news. Who knows what's going on behind the scenes though?

@mrshoho

Oh yes I see what you mean Bighouse. I was also thinking how the UK removed Croatia from the safe list recently but I didn't think their case numbers were that high. I may be wrong though as it seems such a fast changing situation.

It's a little worrying Middleager as although only in the 20's I can see how quickly we could get into the 100's and start to impact on schools (When I saw your nickname previously I sounded it out as middle eager, it's only typing it out it's middle ager )

Yes, it's the schools issue that worries me as DC right in the heart of the inner city. We are already on a watch list here, so keeping an eye on any changes.

I wish I was eager!

Also to add to my last comment my last correspondence from dds school said that parents would only be told of anyone testing positive in the school if PHE told them to so it may be we will never know whether local cases are community spread or outbreak being controlled. It makes those that were shielding or are vulnerable difficult to make a meaningful decision about things.

Ours is 17 per 100,000 mainly in some towns outside the city though. I checked locally and the health director says no-where near looking at a local lockdown, but advising those in the towns mentioned to take extra care and they have set up a mobile testing unit.

We are increasing here as well still low compared to many at 12 but each time seems be at least half as high again. WAS below national average few weeks ago

I’m in an increased are of lockdown and it was way lower than I expected!! I can’t remember what it was, will try and find it.

Ours was 32.4

The 7-day average for Harrow is 5, one outlier result: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Harrow.
Cases have been up and down there recently, it'll go on the watch list if cases stay over 30 in 7 days (someone linked the surveillance report for you above). It depends on the causes and local controls whether a lockdown is determined to be helpful or not.

Thanks for the updates. It's a better picture locally than I first thought.

including the figures publshed today; 40 LAs with the highest case rate per 100,000 in England for w/e 30th aug (so far, not all cases will yet be reported for the week).

Cases and case ratios for each of the last 3 complete weeks; so if current week already higher that gives an indication of how things might be going.

Far right shows actual confirmed cases so far for each day since last Monday

Well my town was put under local restrictions ,I'm in Bolton ,along with the rest of Greater Manchester ,we are supposed to be coming out on Wednesday ,as our numbers went down to 17/ 100,000 however we have just had a spike and we are now at 44/ 100,000

@x2boys

Well my town was put under local restrictions ,I'm in Bolton ,along with the rest of Greater Manchester ,we are supposed to be coming out on Wednesday ,as our numbers went down to 17/ 100,000 however we have just had a spike and we are now at 44/ 100,000

My partner teaches in Bolton and we are now worried about that spike too. Lota od school emails are flying around even now on a Bank Holiday evening, and we are back tomorrow! Makes Manchester (where we live and I teach) seem much safer now, and we didn't expect that.

Oh god that's worrying @WhyAreWeHardOfThinking ,my oldest is supposed to go back to year 9on Friday and youngest next Monday year 6

@boys3

including the figures publshed today; 40 LAs with the highest case rate per 100,000 in England for w/e 30th aug (so far, not all cases will yet be reported for the week).

Cases and case ratios for each of the last 3 complete weeks; so if current week already higher that gives an indication of how things might be going.

Far right shows actual confirmed cases so far for each day since last Monday

I can't read this. Is it on a website? It's blurry, but my area is looking worrying if the blurry figures are what I think they are!

A brilliant MNer called little owl has set up an email service.

Sign up for free at Covid messenger.

It gives you daily cases. How many cases over the week. How much that has risen or fallen.

It's a few days behind because of testing lags and reporting data lags but it's so clear.

We suggest had 8 cases in my town having had none for a few weeks bar an odd 1 every now and again.

But thanks to the emails even though we are getting the odd 1-2 every few days I can see that that short spike is falling despite this.

I'm in Greater Manchester. All the boroughs were put into local measures, some are now low enough to be removed.

Oldham has 56.9 cases per 100,000 population in week ending 28th August
Manchester 39.4
Salford 35.9

Wigan 11.0
Stockport 7.8 both out of local measures

So somewhere between 11 and 35 would be a good guess! It depends if the trend is upwards too. When GM was put into local measures, several of the boroughs were in the top 10 areas in the UK for Covid rates. I think Oldham still is.

NB GM schools are going back next week - children are being asked to wear masks in corridors and other areas where distancing will be difficult. We are currently sewing a batch of fabric masks for the school to give to any families who need them.

DD's school is doing a 2 week in school / 2 week watching lessons remotely system for now, DS's school is back full time but with different start / lunch / finish times for each year group.

Good info on that BBC page. I also use the messenger below.

We’re at 9 cases per 100k