Mass gatherings restarting

[Pugdoglife]

The government has given the go ahead for a horse racing event to take place in Doncaster over four days, with up to 6200 visitors each day. The government are using this as a test case. Is this really a good idea just as schools reopen? Wouldn't it be better to monitor the situation before taking two big steps at once?

I thought the government was “guided by the science”. A rule even my primary DS knows is you only change one variable at a time and monitor the result. Opening schools is a huge variable with the possibility of major consequences. Just shows the government isn’t led by science but by how best to line their pockets.

A wedding is completely different, as one person will hug/kiss/dance with 100 or more others (receiving lines etc) it's pretty obvious where the risk lies. Same for funerals. Agreed a racing event is no different to a theme park - less contact with common objects though! No more likely to hug random people than in a pub.

There's not really any reason to keep waiting after each thing to see if there's a rise any more. Schools opening is necessary, not a wait and see then reverse it. If cases rise then they rise, the health service is under no pressure and its only an exponential rise that needs to be avoided, if the cases go up to 10,000 per day but stay there there isn't a problem. Its at about 100,000 per day that we have a problem.

if the cases go up to 10,000 per day but stay there there isn't a problem

Really?

They usually expect about 15,000 visitors a day at Doncaster for the St Ledger meet, so they have reduced it to less than half that for the trial.

What level of reduction in capability do you think they should be trialling, or do you want all sports to continue with no spectators indefinitely?

I don't think restarting mass events is a good idea and I am advocate for getting back to normal. We need to restart schools, wait for a few months at least and then see where we are. Doing all of this together, with pubs etc still open is madness.

I wonder if they have made the case that it is outside, and therefore 'safer' with covid measures etc. The issue still remains with the loos, touching things and not sd properly. Cheltenham is much much bigger than Doncaster. Cheltenham sees around 68,000 per day - and is known to have helped propel the virus all around the surrounding counties.

What level of reduction in capability do you think they should be trialling, or do you want all sports to continue with no spectators indefinitely?

Well yes quite frankly if it means saving tens of thousands of lives, then yes we have no live spectators indefinitely. It is not essential, and the sport can still continue and be enjoyed safely - from a distance.

The problem is, rises in viruses are not linear. They grow, and decay, exponentially (it's actually a capped exponential, where the rate of growth deteriorates as more of the population dies or becomes immune, but that is a much more complex formula and so to all intents and purposes, it's better to consider it as being exponential).

Even slow exponential growth is still exponential - if you leave it bubbling long enough, it will not remain small for long. Take 100 and multiply it by 1.1 a few times - the increments will soon get bigger and bigger.

The real question is, can we prevent exponential growth through test and trace and the whack-a-mole local lockdowns, or can we slow it sufficiently until we bring a vaccine on line? I think we can, so long as we don't have too many cases all at once. But again, this is not linear. The more cases we have, the less well able we are to monitor and cope with those cases, and the more quickly those cases rise, forming a nasty feedback loop.

Wouldn't it be better to monitor the situation before taking two big steps at once?

Not just schools either. Colleges, universities and the war on demanding offices go back. All while new cases are already at their highest in months.

"I thought the government was “guided by the science”

Scientists conduct experiments to test their hypotheses. This is usually held to be a good thing, and I also think it's right that tests such as controlled crowd (way below usual size, presumably with mitigation in place - spacing, one way systems etc). Then the science can be evidence based, rather than working hypothesis. And as the evidence base grows, there is potential for better decision making.

Don't knock the importance of the St Leger meeting to the Doncaster hospitality industry. Thus one can only be a shadow of its usual self, but at least it'll be something

@AdoreTheBeach

Ooh. I guess it was only Tories gathering at the beaches we all saw in the news during the heatwave and also must be Tories at the theme parks too. Oh and cinemas and theatres etc. Let’s not forget about the tubes and buses to where there’s loads of people too. Yeah right.

Get a grip.

The virus couldn’t care less what political party you belong to.

The test events are about reopening the economy and are/have been across different sectors. Get real people.

Don't be so ridiculous. Look at Matt Hancock and how he is funded and how he spends his leisure time.

www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jun/16/horse-racing-tory-donations-and-a-swift-return-from-lockdown-matt-hancock

@Pugdoglife do you work in hospitality ? People are struggling to feed their kids etc mental health up 50% for a virus that most people survive ... the fear has got stupid every day is a risk

Well yes quite frankly if it means saving tens of thousands of lives, then yes we have no live spectators indefinitely. It is not essential, and the sport can still continue and be enjoyed safely - from a distance.

I've made this point on various other threads - no it's not the end of the world if, as a spectator, you miss a concert/race/sport event/theatre etc....or even go a year without going to any. But this isnt about the individuals. It's about the huge number of jobs at risk while everything live or risky stays closed.
To be fair, I think the idea is really risky and scary as well, BUT I can see why they're doing it.
A football match being cancelled doesnt just affect the players and the grounds man and people that work at the stadium. They'll be local cafes, pubs, mobile catering Van's who make majority of their money on match days, merchandise sellers/manufacturers, programme printers, coach companies taking fans there, the list goes on. Multiply for any live sports or concerts and that's a huge number of people affected.

I just keep going back to how not long ago they were saying 'we may have reached the limit of what we can have open' speculation that some things would need to close again for schools to open. Yet here they go opening more and more things

[quote Ellsbells12]@Pugdoglife do you work in hospitality ? People are struggling to feed their kids etc mental health up 50% for a virus that most people survive ... the fear has got stupid every day is a risk [/quote]
No I'm a teacher.
The benefits to hospitality in this case is a busy four days. The risk to them is the potential of a local lockdown for weeks which would cost them in the long run.

Yet here they go opening more and more things

They're not 'opening it up' as such.

They've approved one event as a test case. That's not the same thing. Unless this is just covert salami?

Its not one thing though is it

Racing and football

The benefits to hospitality in this case is a busy four days. The risk to them is the potential of a local lockdown for weeks which would cost them in the long run

The extra profits of St Leger weekend is the equivalent of a few months normal trade for much of Doncaster hospitality sector. As they might get locked down or individually isolated anyhow, I can see why they would want to go in to it with some profit, rather than on their uppers after a summer even leaner than usual.

It is already completely possible to investigate the effect of having a big event - a comparison of the Covid rates (even though at the time it was only measured at hospital admission) for Gloucestershire vs surrounding counties in the early days of lockdown is a startling illustration of the effect of a single, huge, spreading event vs a whole series of much smaller ones.

What the graph would have looked like if testing had been available to find the true number of cases is anyone's guess.

And it is much more linked to big events like this that have a huge amount of linked hospitality / socialising than to e.g. Crufts, which was indoors and for a very large number BUT doesn't have quite the same amount of linked socialising / drinking / partying [or at least that is my understanding, though I am not very familiar with the dog competition social circuit!]

The extra profits of St Leger weekend is the equivalent of a few months normal trade for much of Doncaster hospitality sector. As they might get locked down or individually isolated anyhow, I can see why they would want to go in to it with some profit, rather than on their uppers after a summer even leaner than usual.

The decision has been taken by national not local government. The Mayor of Doncaster has put out a statement saying that she would have preferred this particular meeting not to take place. Doncaster has race meetings later in the year which would have given chance to gauge the effect of schools going back before throwing this into the mix as well.

And for those who are saying it’s an outside event, if it rains no-one will be outside.