Why is "just" flu supposed to be a good thing?

[randomsabreuse]

Influenza can be a very serious illness... everything about Covid sounds like one of the major flu epidemics (like the Spanish Flu as featured in Downton Abbey).

Surely the issue is that we've downgraded the common meaning of "flu" to "nasty cold that you can't battle through a day at work with" and forgotten that it's one of the biggest killers in history.

I'd say that Covid-19 being very much like Influenza (symptoms, infectiousness) is actually true, but calling it "just flu" understates the potential seriousness of both!

Sorry for the rant - been pissing me off since February!

Vast numbers of people all over the world have the flu vaccine every year, otherwise deaths from flu would be greater. I don't know what the cost to the NHS is for the flu vaccine programme but it saves lives.
I once had flu and remember thinking to myself "now I can see howw people can die of this"

It seems to be much more common with viruses than we realise.

Indeed, because it’s the first time we’d ever have been aware of it. Previously if you felt okay then you weren’t ill. Has a certain logic to it.

Flu has been known to kill well over 650,000 people in a year including children and healthy people of all ages. That's with a vaccine. In terms of 'deadliness' it's a far far greater threat to young children than covid and I'd bet a lot of money that once they finally figure out the true infection fatality ratio of covid, covid will turn out to be a far milder, less deadly illness than flu. They're already saying that covid has become 'less deadly' in Europe. It absolutely hasn't become less deadly, it's just that greater testing rates have shown what has always been true - that covid is highly contagious, lots and lots and lots of people get it, but only a small proportion have problems/die.

The objection to comparing covid to flu really really pisses me off as it shows that people haven't the first clue what flu is about and is also shows that people haven't put any real thought into this whole covid nonsense - they're just convinced it's 'deadly' and that's it.

Referring back to the dismissive minimising idea that only a "tiny minority" of people are at risk from COVID. With the help of the NHS outlining who is at most risk, plus Google, I honestly don't think it's a tiny number at all. I could have gone on finding numbers for more at risk groups but surely this makes the point.

5.4 million over age of 75
3.9 million with diabetes
8.1 million in the BAME community
16.7 million obese adults*
Thousands of people who have had transplants
839 000 pregnancies in 2018, so presumably similar-ish
10,500 people with cystic fibrosis
Estimated 3 million have COPD
5.4 million asthmatics

Etc etc etc

• News today that a recent study has found obesity can increase risk of death by 48%.

And yes, flu is nasty. I've only ever had it once in my life and I'd do anything to avoid it. I was so sick I thought I needed to call an ambulance, but too sick to get out of bed. I thought I was going to die.

Because it is similar to flu, but flu is something we live with, without lockdown/quarantine and this (new) aim of eradicating or stopping flu entirely society. We just get on with it.

When AIDS/HIV was kicking off, were there national genital lockdowns, with chastity belts issued and made compulsory until it was eradicated? Were sexual freedoms restricted by law? Nope.

People risk assess on the basis of the vulnerability of themselves across all iotas of life and should be supported in this when reasonable and proportionate. However, people who are not vulnerable acting as if they are shows a distinct lack of critical thinking.

The only real difference with flu is that there is a vaccine, and it is very much targeted at those most likely to transmit it (young children) or suffer from it (older people, people on the vulnerable list, pregnant women) and is also encouraged and funded by many employers (city firms as well as the NHS).

Scientists have managed to create a vaccine, predict which strains are most likely to cause trouble and hope that they guess well enough to give some level of protection! Hopefully they will get that far (at least) with coronaviruses, with the side benefit of being able to say they cured a type of the common cold.

Without a vaccine flu wouldn't be something to be matter of fact about...

Flu also is worse for people with diabetes, and other underlying health problems as well....also in deprivation

It is as if covid is something new and special, (which it sort of is) but there are many similarities with other viruses and flu..

Also of course, the vaccine doesn't cover all strains and it is predicted each year. Some years only about 40% depends on the year.

@chocciechocface

Anyone who says the risks are only to a tiny minority is an idiot. But the same can be said for flu. Life is full of risks on a day to day basis and Covid is just another one.

The risks are not to a tiny minority but even within the 'at risk' groups your chance of not being seriously ill or dying of COVID are much higher than your chances of being seriously ill or dying. Even in care homes a large number of infected people are asymptomatic. It's not as if everyone over 80 or everyone obese or everyone with diabetes who gets COVID is seriously ill or dies. Which you would think reading some of the reporting.

Thing is I don't want to get either of them.

I don't particularly object to comparing Covid with flu, polio, chickenpox, meningitis or whatever.

My big objection is that in our efforts to differentiate between irritating snotty nose, nasal drip causing cough type viruses and feel like hell, can't breathe, probably running a temperature but better in a couple days type viruses and just randomly feeling crap with a random selection of symptoms (like conjunctivitis, cough, fever) we've got to the point where "flu" has lost its true meaning and is code for "virus that makes me too sick for work/school" and "cold" means "minor virus that is just irritating but one should deal with and soldier on".

There are at least 4 viruses that cause the common cold, some of which are other coronaviruses. There are loads of other viruses that cause cold like symptoms -
DH and DS got raging conjunctivitis with fever and cold symptoms last February, at some point last year we all picked up something that turned into an antibiotic responsive chest infection. Assuming they were all viruses as DS had viral induced wheeze and some level of temperature with all of them and he's the family canary for spiking temperatures with any virus he comes across... (not quite 2, stereotypical November boy).

@chocciechocface but the risks aren't as simple as that. The highest risk factor continues to be age, followed then by pre-existing health conditions, ethnicity, etc. So an 83 year old, BAME, obese, diabetic man would be at very high risk (though still with a higher chance of surviving than dying, its worth noting...). Someone in their 20s with diabetes would have a much, much lower risk. This is why the deaths in those under 60 continue to make up a very small number of the total. So the 'tiny minority' (and I agree, that probably isn't the right wording) continue to be predominantly people over 70.

And the figures about the increase in risk if you are obese also need to be interpreted correctly. If someone in their 20s who isn't obese has a 0.02% chance of dying from Covid (I've made up that figure, can't be bothered to look up exactly what the risk factor is!), increasing that risk by 48% doesn't actually increase the risk significantly (increases it to 0.03%). On the other hand, if you're over 80, and your risk of dying is 10%, increasing that by 48% takes you closer to 15% and that's significant.

@Ontopofthesunset

The risks are not to a tiny minority but even within the 'at risk' groups your chance of not being seriously ill or dying of COVID are much higher than your chances of being seriously ill or dying. Even in care homes a large number of infected people are asymptomatic. It's not as if everyone over 80 or everyone obese or everyone with diabetes who gets COVID is seriously ill or dies. Which you would think reading some of the reporting.

That's actually irrelevant in day to day life and developing policy. Because if you ARE in one of those at risk groups you have no idea whether you will be one of the badly affected or not.

Take those adults who are obese, for example, that's 25% of the adult population who could potentially die or be seriously ill.

"The study from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill finds that people with obesity, with a BMI over 30, are at greater risk from the coronavirus in every way. Their risk of ending up in hospital with Covid-19 is increased by 113%, they are more likely to be admitted to intensive care (74%) and have a higher risk of death (48%) from the virus."

And this is ONLY the people who are vulnerable due to obesity.

I think the "tiny minority" argument is usually trotted out to support thinking that restrictions are too tight, people are being irrationally fearful etc. That is simply not true. There is nothing irrational about wanting to avoid potential risk.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/obesity-increases-risk-of-covid-19-death-by-48-study-finds?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

I don't think it is irrelevant in your daily life, to be honest. I mean, as someone else has said, 30,000 under 5s are hospitalised each year with RSV (probably about 1 or 2 in every 100) but we don't keep every under 5 at home all winter to prevent that. Every year some children die of chickenpox; we don't know if our child will be the one. And the risk by age is confounded by the risk by other comorbidities. If you are a completely healthy 80 year old as opposed to an obese diabetic with heart disease, your risk is probably pretty low.

That's actually irrelevant in day to day life and developing policy. Because if you ARE in one of those at risk groups you have no idea whether you will be one of the badly affected or not.

No it isn’t irrelevant, there are risks every day in everyone’s life. We need to get on with life we can’t hide away forever for something that for most people in the long term is comparable to flu.

If you want to hide away that’s up to you.

@randomsabreuse

Influenza can be a very serious illness... everything about Covid sounds like one of the major flu epidemics (like the Spanish Flu as featured in Downton Abbey).

Surely the issue is that we've downgraded the common meaning of "flu" to "nasty cold that you can't battle through a day at work with" and forgotten that it's one of the biggest killers in history.

I'd say that Covid-19 being very much like Influenza (symptoms, infectiousness) is actually true, but calling it "just flu" understates the potential seriousness of both!

Sorry for the rant - been pissing me off since February!

I completely agree with you on this, I have a memory as a school child of being shaken by my friend losing her mum to flu, she was only in her thirties when she died, and my friend was 8, that memory has stayed with me and one of the reasons I have the flu jab every year.

You're right. I've been unlucky enough to have had flu 3 times in my life. The difference to me between flu and a very bad cold is the truth in the description. With a bad cold we use language like 'I feel like I'm dying' but we know it's not true, it's just an expression of how rough we feel. With flu those words are truth, we genuinely feel like we're dying and it's terrifying.

News today that a recent study has found obesity can increase risk of death by 48%.

So a risk of 0.5% increases to just under 0.75%. Its not saying that 48% of people who are obese will die from it.

Take those adults who are obese, for example, that's 25% of the adult population who could potentially die or be seriously ill
Anyone could potentially die or be seriously ill, from multiple causes, at any time. Covid is just another thing on the long list of things which can kill you (but probably won't, regardless of any risk factors). We each have to assess our own risk levels and act accordingly.

I had swine flu when i was pregnant. i was hospitalized and it caused pregnancy complications which have had a lifelong impact on my child. So the 'only like flu'/ 'not like flu' discussion havent reassured me much. It also highlighted, that whilst i wouldn't expect full on lockdowns during flu season, as a society, we are total arses to the weak and vulnerable. People almost wearing it as a badge of hounour that they went out with a fever, cough and a drippy nose and spread it as much as possible and mocking people that stayed home. Well everywhere i work has been like that anway.

@chocciechocface I don't agree with you when you say 'there's nothing irrational about wanting to avoid potential risk.' If, in order to avoid a very small potential risk of illness, which is accompanied by a very very tiny risk of dying, you cause other people to needlessly die, then that is not rational IMO.

By weird coincidence I know two young people who actually did fall down stairs, one died, the other broke her back and thankfully recovered. There is a potential risk that I could also fall down the stairs and be seriously injured or die. If I decide never to go down a flight of stairs again, thus severely restricting my life, due to the potential risk, that would be considered symptomatic of a very unhealthy and irrational anxiety.

Tanking entire economies, causing deaths from other illnesses, suicide, abuse and poverty is not a rational response to one single threat.

How do you explain the global - global - response to this? Do you think every scientist around the world colluded to exaggerate the pandemic. Do you think scientists (from repressive societies to democratic ones) managed to find a moment of perfect collusion without conferences and massive coordination. They all just perfectly exaggerated it all at exactly the right moment. Perfect synchronicity.

Do you think every government decided to trash their economies for giggles?

Why do people on Mumsnet / Facebook etc think they know more, beyond doubt, than experts.

I have a relative working at a very high level on the virus. His comment to me was "People are incapable of being rational" - and he's meaning people like you, I'm afraid. He also said the virus was far worse than people on the street could understand. I suspect this is what experts like him - all around the world - have communicated to governments.

But - to the point of irrationality:

We received a letter telling us DH was at risk. The letter did not break down every detail of his risk by age, weight, lifestyle etc. It just said he had to take extra care.

Is it really irrational to comply with that?

Is it meaningful to refer to people who have received letters like that - millions - as "hiding away", as if they are cowards consumed by fear and paranoia? My view is that attitude is just nasty.

What do you think it does to the mental health of an elderly person when they start believing society thinks they are a "tiny minority" who should just be allowed to die for [insert reasons].

The thing with flu, though; it's utterly grim and can put you completely out of action for 5 to 10 days but nobody ever fears it will kill them.
Even though for some people flu does prove fatal.

No one thinks it is exaggerated. The facts are the facts.

But lockdown as a solution is worse than the illness.

@Teateaandmoretea

No one thinks it is exaggerated. The facts are the facts.

But lockdown as a solution is worse than the illness.

For society as a whole yes. We need to discriminate and keep vulnerable people safe, however.

Lockdown as a way of controlling the spread of the illness may or may not have been the best solution. It certainly worked for a short while. Whether the harm it caused for the benefits it achieved was worth it is probably not something we will ever be able to quantify - and we're certainly too close to it now to do so.

But the disproportionate fear many very low risk people have is problematic for them and for society. The idea that 'people on the street' can't understand how bad this virus is is precisely the sort of hyperbolic nonsense that causes people like me, who are sometimes onn the street and sometimes not, who are hypochondriacal and rule-following but also analytical and keen to interrogate, to roll our eyes sceptically. What precisely is it that we can't understand and why?