What the UK did right this summer

[Redolent]

We know that coronavirus infections are driven by ‘superspreader’ events. The majority of people infect no one, while some can infect 10s of others. Roughly 20% of people are responsible for 80% of infections. Control these events by preventing mass gatherings, and you can generally reign things in.

It looks like that failed to happen in other parts of Europe this summer. Spain had supposedly strict face mask rules but also reopened nightclubs, weddings had limits of 150 guests +, indoor social / family gatherings were far more lax. Their hospitalizations have risen considerably in the last few days.

In France, there’s also this recent case of a 250 guest wedding where 76 people were infected:

www.newsweek.com/almost-one-third-attendees-250-person-wedding-infected-coronavirus-1527469

Of course not everyone has been following the rules in the UK, but I think the benchmark guidance here - ‘6 people outdoors’, ‘two households indoors’, ‘30 people at a wedding’ - has greatly reigned in people’s sense of what is permissible. So even if people deviate from it, it’s not significantly so.

It’s too early to be self-congratulatory. In particular, school openings can yet be our undoing. But I think this is one possible explanation for why we haven’t seen the spikes that other countries are experiencing.

I have been the first to criticise the U.K. government for the sequence of egregious fuck ups which happened this spring. They didn’t take covid seriously from the start. They locked down too late. They allowed it into care homes. They stopped testing in March.

But...

Even I have to give the government some credit where it’s due. The re-opening of the economy has been well, and cautiously managed. They have now got their act together on mass testing and outbreaks are being spotted very effectively. ‘Whack-a-mole’ is demonstrably working.

Obviously, schools re-opening will be a big test, so hopefully it will go well.

What the UK did right: Having an amazing private sector/research sector which has produced a very promising treatment and probably the best vaccine candidate.

The government has been lamentable. On the other hand, given that even the most successful suppressers (Taiwan, NZ etc.) cannot continue with suppression measures forever and can't keep their borders shut forever either, you could argue that producing a vaccine is THE most important thing that a country could possible do in this pandemic.

Yes agree on research / vaccine being key and it’s great we are doing well at it (good vibes for all being succcessful)

I think going into lockdown was well managed tbh. It was over a couple of weeks, balancing the panic buying, the hysteria and the doubters. If lockdown had happened a week earlier when it was just advisory, I think there would have been less compliance. By the time it actually happened most people wanted it to happen. So I think 90% of the population stuck to it, rather than the figure of 60% I think the estimates were based on.

I also think the actual lockdown rules were sensible and proportionate compared to some countries. If you ignored the mn rulez anyway. Made no difference to the spread of the virus if you walked 6 hours a day or 6 minutes a day, if you went to your allotment, if you walked/ran/cycled etc. So again I think there was more compliance.

And reopening business and the economy seems sensible and well thought out.

The financial support for business and individuals is good. A few left behind but those few were necessary to have some control over the amounts. Every working class family I know has recieved support in one way or another.

I think in years to come, as more figures come out about excess deaths from around the world and the longer term impact of CV, this government will be looked on favorably.

Introducing face covering in schools in corridors in lockdown areas. As long as it doesn’t make infection spread worse by re-using it’s a good way to keep people in school without rotas or closing.

And managing to get hospitalisation rates and number of deaths so incredibly low.

I am very glad that the UK did not lock children away and showed common sense about outdoor activity during the lockdown.

There was a lot of hysteria from some people on here about "Why can't the UK have a PROPER LOCKDOWN???" but the evidence now suggests strongly that transmission outdoors is very difficult, and that the UK's poor outcomes are mostly to do with other things, like transmission within nursing homes and so on.

If we had locked kids up indoors as well, outcomes would almost certainly be no different but we would have a much worse mental health crisis as well, not to mention huge amounts of pent -up resentment and anger among kids, young people and their parents.

Agree v much about locking dc up

Just listening to complaints over extra payments in lockdown areas. The level of funding and grants has been huge. It’s never enough though.

Agree with your opening post.

I have been critical of some handling at the beginning and then Whitney guidance is always crystal or seemingly logical in different places.

But the fact we have limited mass gatherings, for on top of factory outbreaks and it now seems some school ones in Scotland, kept the small epidemics in local authorities contained and are now seeing results has been good.

It's so hard having these restrictions on our lives but seeing that despite our higher numbers and deaths, our never quite going as low in cases as other European neighbours - we also haven't seen such a rise and there is evidence of people stick with this we won't.

@Kokeshi123

I am very glad that the UK did not lock children away and showed common sense about outdoor activity during the lockdown.

There was a lot of hysteria from some people on here about "Why can't the UK have a PROPER LOCKDOWN???" but the evidence now suggests strongly that transmission outdoors is very difficult, and that the UK's poor outcomes are mostly to do with other things, like transmission within nursing homes and so on.

If we had locked kids up indoors as well, outcomes would almost certainly be no different but we would have a much worse mental health crisis as well, not to mention huge amounts of pent -up resentment and anger among kids, young people and their parents.

100% agree.

Totally agree with the OP.
It's always possible to do better with hindsight but the next best thing is to learn from mistakes.
Mass sports gatherings were allowed in March and no quarantining of people arriving from abroad. These two things contributed to seeding the virus throughout the country and both have been managed reasonably well since.
I say reasonably because I don't believe giving a warning to returnees from abroad is a good idea. If the country has a worrying rate of infection then why risk a repeat of the Italian ski fiasco. I think if a country is going on the blacklist it should be immediate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53656852

I thought that it was quite well thought out to look at the track and trace data for patterns of transmission and then to introduce measures based on that rather than blanket measures, for example household groups picked up in some areas.