So what's the plan if we don't get a vaccine?

[zafferana]

All this 'Covid-safe' planning for reopening businesses, schools, etc presupposes that this is temporary and that we'll have a vaccine before long and can then go back to life as normal.

I bloody hope that's the case, but what happens if we never get one, as some scientists say is likely? When will we just accept the risk and get on with life again? And how many of us would say 'Right now', if asked that question. I think I would.

Probably have to social distance for infinity. The government do seem to be quite happy never to allow us to interact with and hug and kiss our friends and family and do the things that make life worth living, and, you know, actually be human beings.

Why are people so sure there will be a vaccine, and if there was one why do you think enough people would have it to remove Covid-19 from the UK population?
Even if it was, given that it's clearly been demonstrated that it will move around the world, it would soon re-appear. I suspect we'll just have to get used to it joining an already long list of viruses that can affect people, especially those who are already frail.

I am with you OP if all distancing , regulations and guidelines were gone tomorrow I would pull up my big girl panties and go to work like usual tomorrow . Yes I am fully aware of the risks I have family members shielding that I wont see as much as I miss them as I dont believe it is safe for them I work in a full time people facing role but am seeing others that have them self deemed the risk acceptable . Mumsnet seems full of people who know huge numbers that have died from covid however despite the many thousands I know in person or on social media I know of only 4 people who have had it all very mild cases

@NewKittyMeow
Yes we will have to learn to live with the risk of deadly disease, but I disagree with the chipper attitude of some. For some people this is a difficult thing to ask as the risk will be high.

Im not saying we wont have to get back to normal, because we will. But we will have to accept that high risk people will die as a result if we dont find a vaccine. Im not sure there is a satisfactory answer to the question where we can protect vunerable people and get back to normal

I think a new deadly disease is different to a risk youve always had ans grown up with. And our knowledge of dieases prevention has progressed so much, I dont think you can compare past with present.

Yeah, that's my worry @kittensarecute. That and contact sports for kids.

They stopped research into a vaccine for SARS (and for MERS) when those viruses were contained. However virologists and immunologists are building on that research for the COVID vaccine which is one reason that development is going so well.

I agree @Ifailed. And yes, I think you're probably right @Timeforabiscuit. Once this winter is out of the way there will be decisions to be made about how we continue. Whether we're prepared to keep real life on ice indefinitely, because it will have been a whole year by March.

Why are people so sure there will be a vaccine

Everything I’ve read from people in the field has been reassuring and sounded reasonable. Each time someone says we won’t because, eg SARS to give example below, someone gives a reason why it’s not such a hurdle.

I still look out for why people don’t think there will be though as I don’t think there’s been a reason that hasn’t been overturned.

Not definite though of course, just why I’m on the side of there is likely to be

Even if we don't get a vaccine, we will eventually get better testing and treatment, and it would be better if most people caught it later (when more is known) rather than sooner.

In the very worst case scenario of no vaccine and no improvement in diagnosis and treatment ever (which won't happen), it would still be better for the illness to spread slowly rather than fast. That would give everyone the best chance of surviving it and for society to keep functioning without lots of people being in hospital at once (even if hospitalisation rates stay fairly low, that's still a lot of people in hospital at once and still a lot of people dying, if illness rates keep going up because we've decided not to care about spreading it any more).

Society as a whole is going to have to decide how it looks after the 3% who are exceptionally clinIcally vulnerable

I imagine the same way it looks after the same who are exceptionally vulnerable to other things?

ie not really bothering much at all - like the people who drive a mile through town, I mean a bit of extra risk to those with respiratory conditions aren't worth the inconvenience of having to walk?

Or how it treats the obese or disabled, mostly with abuse and scorn regardless of the reasons.

what happens if we never get one, as some scientists say is likely?

I haven't seen anyone reputable saying that. Got any links.

Most have said that it's a possibility, because it's good to manage expectations and because scientists by very nature would never say something is definite when there is not yet any evidence that it's definite. But all the signs are that a vaccine is not far off, all results so far point to success, we're already well through the development process, etc.

I agree that it’s different NOW for us than for people who grew up with smallpox, say. But if a vaccine is never developed, it might not be different for our children, who will grow up with it. There’s a reason a lot of diseases like polio and measles and chickenpox are seen as diseases of childhood - not because they’re more serious for children, as mostly they aren’t - but because generally any epidemic disease occurs in waves - and if you survive a wave as a child, for these diseases you’re immune for life. Then the next time there’s a wave, mostly adults and older children are immune and it’s the little children who catch it. If Covid immunity only last for a few months or years, that won’t be the case, it’ll be more like eg influenza. And the vulnerable die of influenza all the time and life goes on, and that’s with an effective vaccine most years.

I’m not sure what the answer is but I suspect most countries will eventually follow the Swedish model, with the vulnerable shielding whenever there’s a serious outbreak.

Someone very recently got it for a 2nd time. Presenting different symptoms. Massive spanner in the works for the vaccine plan.

They know the virus now has several strains - they are testing for them.
This means a specific vaccine might not be effective for all strains (similar to the flu vaccine).

It's looking like it may have mutated to a less deadly form now because death rates compared with case rates are falling. I sincerely hope this turns out to be the case. This is how the 'Spanish' flu stopped.

Seeing that organised pool party event in Wuhan, that could be a promising sign things will get better. My GP said he is hopeful the virus is becoming weaker but they absolutely cannot take any chances until this winter is over.....

@YNK

They know the virus now has several strains - they are testing for them. This means a specific vaccine might not be effective for all strains (similar to the flu vaccine).

It's looking like it may have mutated to a less deadly form now because death rates compared with case rates are falling. I sincerely hope this turns out to be the case. This is how the 'Spanish' flu stopped.

That’s absolutely what I’m hoping. Maybe even without a vaccine it’ll be like the common cold in five years.

Someone very recently got it for a 2nd time. Presenting different symptoms. Massive spanner in the works for the vaccine plan.

If you mean the man from Hong Kong, he presented no symptoms (asymptomatic) from the second infection.

Although it's difficult to draw any conclusions from a sample size of 1 person and reinfection may be very rare, if reinfection can frequently occur within a matter of months that makes vaccination the only way to achieve herd immunity.

@iVampire

Society as a whole is going to have to decide how it looks after the 3% who are exceptionally clinIcally vulnerable

Including all those who get their new cancer diagnosis this year

What do you expect/want to happen? If the vulnerable have special protections for this then people who are vulnerable to other illnesses will need to get special protections too, otherwise it wouldn’t be fair? In the scenario where we don’t get a vaccine next year then really everything is going to have to go back to normal and people will have to live with it.

Someone very recently got it for a 2nd time. Presenting different symptoms. Massive spanner in the works for the vaccine plan.

If you mean the man in Hong Kong, he was hospitalised the first time and asymptomatic the second. Sounds encouraging to me, his immune system responded differently the second time around.

@Racoonworld What other infectious illnesses are you thinking of that people will also need extra protection for?

what happens if we never get one, as some scientists say is likely?

Which scientists say it's likely we will never get a vaccine (or effective treatment)?

I accept that it may take a few yrs to get a vaccine & that wild infection may reach most people in meantime. But that's not same as "never".

"Since reinfection can occur, herd immunity by natural infection is unlikely to eliminate #SARSCoV2. The only safe and effective way to achieve herd immunity is through vaccination."
Professor Akiko Iwasaki, Immunobiology department, Yale University Medical.

mobile.twitter.com/BhadeliaMD/status/1297891336255938560

@mrshoho what about people who are particularly vulnerable to flu or pneumonia? There are many illnesses around and there are always groups of people more vulnerable to them than others

[quote Racoonworld]@mrshoho what about people who are particularly vulnerable to flu or pneumonia? There are many illnesses around and there are always groups of people more vulnerable to them than others[/quote]
But we have vaccines for flu and viral pneumonia.

@iVampire

Society as a whole is going to have to decide how it looks after the 3% who are exceptionally clinIcally vulnerable

Including all those who get their new cancer diagnosis this year

What kind of support are you thinking of?