Thank God we didn’t try for herd immunity! Man tests positive for 2nd time.

[Pinktornado]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/24/case-of-man-with-coronavirus-for-second-time-stokes-reinfection-fears-hong-kong

Man tests positive for coronavirus for the second time in 4.5 months. It was definitely not the same infection both times. However each time he didn’t have many symptoms which is a relief I suppose.

It's best to read the whole article before anyone starts panicking (not that I'm suggesting you are).

From the same article...

But other scientists suggested there was little cause for alarm. Dr Jeffrey Barrett, a consultant to the Covid-19 Genome Project at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said the Hong Kong researchers might have come to overly sweeping conclusions.

“Given the number of global infections to date, seeing one case of reinfection is not that surprising, even if it is a very rare occurrence. I think their ‘implications’ are far too broad given that they have seen just one instance. This may be very rare, and it may be that second infections, when they do occur, are not serious – though we don’t know whether this person was infectious during their second episode,”

Brendan Wren, professor of microbial pathogenesis at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “With over 3m cases of Covid-19 worldwide, the first reported case of a potential re-infection with Covid-19 needs to be taken into context. It appears that the young and healthy adult has been reinfected with a slight Covid-19 variant from the initial infection three months previously."

“It is to be expected that the virus will naturally mutate over time. This is a very rare example of reinfection, and it should not negate the global drive to develop Covid-19 vaccines.”

Op, did you read the article?

mobile.twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1297890418168860674

Erm...isnt he asymptomatic i.e "not actually ill"?

There used to be a time when it was said that you couldn’t get chicken pox twice. We now know that isn’t true. However, very few people do get it twice.

Oh Jesus, calm down . Read the article, op, before spreading hysteria like that.

Bad news for developing any vaccine That will give reasonable level of lasting protection Too! Hopefully it’s a one off or there is little chance of this ending for a long time.

one person in the world? im not going to get stresessed over that

Herd immunity isn't something you 'go for'.
It's something that happens naturally if you don't have a hysterical, damaging overreaction to a virus.
www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1320428/Coronavirus-news-lockdown-mistake-second-wave-Boris-Johnson

Your reading comprehension is not strong, OP.

I've had chickenpox twice.

I'm not going to panic about one person getting reinfected.

He wasn't symptomatic second time though. I think if you've had it once, the next time will be milder.

If immunity wears off at about the 6 month point, this is about the time we'd expect to,start seeing re-infections.

It is good that so much attention is being paid to this, that cases are spotted.

What we now have to wait and see is if more follow, and whether they are mild or not.

The positive side of the story seems to be he was in hospital the first time, and symptomless the second time. So either he developed some form of immunity (making the virus milder for him) or the newer virus strain was naturally milder (this would be great news!)

I am puzzled by the current rates of death (relatively low), compared to the current number of cases (rising again in quite a few places). It would be nice to think immunity is rising and/or the virus is getting milder. I guess only time will tell (in the mean time... I'll keep doing my bit and practice social distancing, as requested by law)

The article suggests he’s caught a different strain. So the first was the original Chinese strain & the second the European strain. Which makes sense. ‘The genetic sequence of the first belonged to a different lineage than the second infection’. We know there are two major strains. Fingers crossed the vaccine developers do too 😉

It also fits that we think the European strain is more infectious. The man had no symptoms from it. It’s thought up to 75% of people are asymptomatic. Making the virus very contagious as so many are out and about unknowingly spreading it. It means it’s less deadly too but not to the elderly & vulnerable. The original Chinese strain is potentially more symptomatic meaning people knew to isolate or were unwell enough to stay at home anyway, thus the infection doesn’t spread as much. It’s not that it’s any less contagious, rather people get more ill & therefore stay home feeling rubbish..

1 out of 23 million reported cases, and god knows how many actual ones. Hardly worth panicking over. Also it’s hardly surprising is it given they’ve been saying for months antibodies don’t last and vaccines would need to be frequently given.!

Interesting that this was found in Hong Kong, which had infections earlier, but still has < 5,000 confirmed cases in total
vs > 2 million in Europe

We may see more 2nd infections in Europe, but as only about 7% of people in the Uk have antibodies indicating previous infection and only 1-2% in some low population density countries,
you'd have to be very unlucky to catch it a 2nd time

The issue will be whether middle aged and elderly people who catch it a 2nd time will always be asymptomatic
Currently we have a sample of 1 person

@ChipOffTheOldMock

Herd immunity isn't something you 'go for'. It's something that happens naturally if you don't have a hysterical, damaging overreaction to a virus. www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1320428/Coronavirus-news-lockdown-mistake-second-wave-Boris-Johnson

Your reading comprehension is not strong, OP.

.... Sweden without lockdown has 5-12 x the deaths / million of its Scandinavian neighbours with lockdown - similar low population density and culture

Sweden currently still has higher cases / 100,000 than its neighbours, so hasn't reached herd immunity yet, despite its higher total deaths

The UK has 12 x the population density of Sweden and had similar death curves to Italy, not Scandinavia

Herd immunity may need a very high % in some high population density urban areas.
Recent serological surveys in high COVID epicentres have found v high levels of antibodies indicating infected people:

• 93% of the population of Iquitos, Peru
• 78% in some areas of New York City
• 57% in Mumbai slums

See the currrent furore in Sweden over Tegnell's deleted EMails:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails

"appearing to ask whether a higher death rate among older people might be acceptable if it led to faster herd immunity"

I agree with the OP - this is a potential worry. Whilst yes it is only one case of 're infection there could be many more. The guy was asymptomatic. People don't generally go around getting tested unless they have symptoms so it's possible there are many more 're infections. The next few months will be very telling.

The fact he’s asymptomatic fits with something I read last week where a scientist suggested that it might be like the common colds that are also caused by Coronaviruses, ie that you don’t have lasting immunity but don’t get severely ill if you get it again as it’s no longer novel in the community

Also it’s hardly surprising is it given they’ve been saying for months antibodies don’t last

Thats about when antibodies wear off but the recent tests for T cell immunity suggest it lasts much longer, and that many people not showing antibodies are testing positive for T cells.

This is surely good news, and it's exactly what we expect the immune system to do. He was not even mildly ill: he was asymptomatic.

We know that asymptomatic people are less likely to pass the illness on, which is good news for pandemic control.

We are eight months into a global pandemic with probably hundreds of millions infected, and this is the first time this has happened - and he's presumably an outlier or we'd have been seeing it more often.

So out of the likely 100s of millions of global cases... One has been infected twice and has no illness the second time... Hardly cause for concern really.. Another scaremongering post

Considering that the virus hasn't been around long outside of China, it's not surprising that only one person has contracted it twice. It's the fact they have contracted it twice that is significant.

The fact that he is asymptomatic isn't a comfort, as he wouldn't have known if he hadn't been tested, would have assumed he was immune, and would have spread it.

This is worrying.