The next 6 months

[Ohfrigginghellers]

I know nobody really knows but what are people's gut feelings about how the next 6 months is going to pan out?
I really hope schools going back goes well.
I guess we are all just hoping for the best.

I think the schools will reopen but there will be local lockdowns and it may be a bit stop start

I think it will be a bit grim and miserable but I also think that by the time March comes the overall picture in terms of the virus will look like there’s an end in sight.

Schools will reopen but I doubt they will last long with no SD or PPE. I just hope there’s a really good plan B behind the scenes for remote learning. Quite why they haven’t gone with remote learning for at the very min secondary onwards i don’t understand.

Me too icecream

I think there will be quite a few local lockdowns. Pubs, resturants and non-essential shops may need to be closed in some areas to bring things under control.

Hopefully, flu related deaths will be lower than normal.

Unemployment levels will continue to rise and there will be unprecedented demand on foodbanks and other organisations supporting the poorest people.

There will be school closures but I don't think they will be anywhere near as widespread and regular as some people are predicting. It will be a disrupted winter but schools won't be at the centre of the disruption.

It’s going to be grim. People talk about the risks of school reopenings but not universities, which are arguably worse. Not the teaching, but all the partying, socialising, drinking that’s going to go wity it. And then if universities close to in-person learning due to spikes, students will take the virus away cities back to their homes and communities.

Not to add that there are many people who are socialising outside who may be driven indoors. The cold climate will be far more conducive to the spread of the virus also. And people, having tasted some respite over the summer, will be far less likely to comply with unenforceable lockdown rules.

I think it will be fine. Let’s see though.

There's definitely going to be spikes with schools and universities combined with 'get back to the office' next month. Plus more people indoors as the weather turns and it gets colder and darker, rather than socialising outside.

Ultimately though is it terrible if there's a lot of cases but few hospital admissions? It's manageable as long as the hospitals can hope.

Well this is a case study from a superspreading event in Ohio which makes it clear (again) that children do spread COVID...

I'm expecting it to be a bumpy ride. Maybe not as bad as March/April but challenging with many local lockdowns, lots of people having to self-isolate multiple times, etc.

I think a significant proportion of the population will no longer adhere to local lockdowns or social distancing (and won't self isolate with symptoms either) and so this, along with England's track and trace being quite shit, will mean it will be challenging right through to next spring.

(I say England as the stats for Wales and Scotland track and trace are much better, not sure about NI)

Sorry case study below

@annabel85

There's definitely going to be spikes with schools and universities combined with 'get back to the office' next month. Plus more people indoors as the weather turns and it gets colder and darker, rather than socialising outside.

Ultimately though is it terrible if there's a lot of cases but few hospital admissions? It's manageable as long as the hospitals can hope.

I agree that hospital admissions are key. But most people here (see another thread) have said they’re going to continue visiting elderly grandparents etc indoors, so there’s a good chance those cases (picked up in schools, say) will fan outwards to the vulnerable.

@IncidentsandAccidents

I think there will be quite a few local lockdowns. Pubs, resturants and non-essential shops may need to be closed in some areas to bring things under control.

Hopefully, flu related deaths will be lower than normal.

Unemployment levels will continue to rise and there will be unprecedented demand on foodbanks and other organisations supporting the poorest people.

There will be school closures but I don't think they will be anywhere near as widespread and regular as some people are predicting. It will be a disrupted winter but schools won't be at the centre of the disruption.

Closing those things won’t make much impact as people socialising and large non SD groups in education will be far greater in number and together far long to spread it.

There will be a lot of disruptions in schools, sheer numbers mean cases will arrive and quickly spread.

It seems clear that hospital rates are low at the moment because it's mostly younger/less vulnerable people out and about enjoying themselves through the summer and going on holiday etc and going to parties. Therefore when they get infected they get a mild case and aren't going to see their grandparents.

Workplaces are clearly a big spread (factories etc). If all the offices did go back to normal then that'd have a big effect because a lot of vulnerable people work in offices, whether age (60+) or health conditions. The type of people who haven't spent their summer going to raves.

I think it will be a difficult Autumn and Winter but hopefully not disastrous. I’m quite worried about a No deal Brexit in the middle of it all. Just keep prepping!
I don’t think we’ll have another national lockdown and schools will stay open. How ever I think there will be local lockdowns, some sectors in those areas eg pubs may close, and individual schools may close due to outbreaks or staff illness.
I think socialising will be restricted (I’m in Bradford so it is already).
On a personal level I think we’ll be staying in watching films and building Lego a lot!
I am intending to get us all tested a week before Christmas and then isolate so we can see grandparents then as we’ll be distancing from them the rest of the time. I work in both a University and healthcare and DS at school- we’re high risk.
I hope my mental health holds up, I had a month off with anxiety March/ April. I only work 2 days and am now on antidepressants so fingers crossed.

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss I do think there will be enough cases in schools to force a u turn on mask wearing in secondaries. I don't think there will be mass school closures or a move to blended learning though.

That church transmission grid is impossible - there are 10 children on there, and we know they aren't able to transmit it or catch it

I think cases will steadily rise. There will be local lockdowns and ultimately by end Nov a total lockdown. It will be a rough winter, but by the time we get ahead of it in Spring, we may be nearer a viable vaccine.

What should happen is that the pause on quarantine people should cease so that those more vulnerable people are safe instead of being pressurised to go back to work. Government doesn't seem to give a shit about them though. I think if we knew more vulnerable people were safe, others could stay out of lockdown for longer.

Who knows though eh?