Confused by cases per 100k - Grant Shapps

[Ickabog]

Grant Shapps has just said on BBC breakfast that cases in the UK are around 11 in 100k

However according to www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea we actually seem to be at 20.9 per 100k.

Can anyone explain why there would be such a huge difference between to 2?
Or is it as simple as Shapps is lying?

Could it be because Shapps figure isn’t taking into consideration the local outbreaks/hotspots and the other measure is?

Weekly versus fortnightly. Your link has 2 weeks of cases, not one.

@MRex

Weekly versus fortnightly. Your link has 2 weeks of cases, not one.

That makes sense, is using a weekly total of cases more accurate?

I'm not great at figures and statistics, so the explanation is appreciated.

Weekly is more up-to-date, it shows that cases have again risen slightly - but then so has testing; fortnightly evens out the impact of any particular outbreaks. Join the stats thread if you want to get lots more data!

Within the UK, the areas on lockdown and watchlist have cases >30/100,000 per week. Across other countries, there start to be squeaks about them from UK gov when they go over 15/100,000 (30 on your 14-day chart) depending on how fast they're growing and quarantine imposed roughly at 20/100,000 (average per day for a 7 week period). Local medical resources, test volume, general government trust in the figures make a difference too (e.g. many African countries aren't on the exemption list due to insufficient testing as well as poor medical availability). So, that tells you roughly where the UK gov feels they have control are under 20 cases per 100,000 per week; the nerves start tingling somewhere between 20-30/100,000 cases per week. The surveillance report will be released later today that's quite readable and explains lots more about each area, you can find it here:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports.

Grant Shapps should have checked with Michael Green first

or Sebastian Fox