Guesses on what will happen in Manchester?

[lunar1]

Just seen our numbers are still going up in two areas, Manchester and Oldham. Not really surprised given that people are generally ignoring the local lockdown.

It's just so close to schools reopening, what do you think will happen here? I'm wondering if we could end up with a delayed start.

I know general Covid hospital admissions are up here, but not to ITU if that makes a difference.

People are definitely generously interpreting the local restrictions, ITU is not increasing yet because most of the new cases are 15-24 year-olds, who rarely develop severe symptoms. Schools will still open as usual, but I can see pubs, cafes, restaurants and cinemas closing to enable this.

I think that secondaries opening as planned is looking doubtful full stop in light of the fact that the DfE has done sweet FA for the past six months.
Schools will be the biggest fuck up in a very crowded field.

Have you got any links to increased hospital admissions?

@AnaadiNitya from this link, you can click on healthcare and filter for your local area, it’s the Govt. website so is official data.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

I can’t see there has been a substantial rise, it’s a small spike. We have to go off evidence rather than modelling and tbh - the Govs way of collecting past data has been awful

There are 47,600 pubs in the UK (let's say 1000 week through the door) that's nearly 300M people in 6 weeks - How many outbreaks in that time and what's the risk? The outbreaks are actually very small compared to the amount of people in that area.

The evidence points that actually it’s not that risky as we would have been in full catastrophe mode again.

I think it’s passed

@AnaadiNitya I agree with you. I think the U.K. infection rate is very low in so many areas based on the measures we have taken, with sufficient testing going forward I hope everything can stay open. Not in any of the local lockdown areas myself, but have been in dozens of pubs/restaurants etc. Since reopening and have not been contacted for tracing purposes so based on personal experiences as well as PHE outbreak figures I think the risk of an outbreak related to social/leisure is much lower than a lot of people think (provided people are following the measures in place). My part of London is running at 10% of infections identified in Late March/Early April (when they were testing only people that presented at healthcare settings, compared to open testing for all now).

@AnaadiNitya, local knowledge via work, without outing myself.

I'm nervous about them going back, but have bought all the back to school list. My children really want to be back. My family is at higher risk but not to the extent of shielding.

I was hoping the decision would be clear cut. Either numbers are really low and it was an easy choice. Or clear signs that we need to wait longer. If I was almost anywhere else in the country I'd not worry, but Greater Manchester is in an odd position relight now.

The seven day total for Oldham is 97 per 100,000 THOUSAND. 235,623 People live in Oldham. So that’s around 194 cases out of over 200,000 people (and these could be asymptotic or mild) remember hospital admissions have not gone up.

In greater Manchester where I am from we are at 44 cases per 100,000. Were at 2569 cases but we have 2.8 MILLION people here.

Also these will be asymptotic and mild cases as hospital admissions have not gone up. I’m following them closely.

The figures tell a different story to what is in the papers and tv news.

This is unlikely to go away completely and I really do believe we are at the tail end of it. There will be plenty of spikes when school opens up bit also remember testing is at an all time high. The more testing is done the more cases will come to light. But still again 80% of people will be completely fine or show mild symptoms.

@AnaadiNitya

The seven day total for Oldham is 97 per 100,000 THOUSAND. 235,623 People live in Oldham. So that’s around 194 cases out of over 200,000 people (and these could be asymptotic or mild) remember hospital admissions have not gone up.

In greater Manchester where I am from we are at 44 cases per 100,000. Were at 2569 cases but we have 2.8 MILLION people here.

Also these will be asymptotic and mild cases as hospital admissions have not gone up. I’m following them closely.

The figures tell a different story to what is in the papers and tv news.

This is unlikely to go away completely and I really do believe we are at the tail end of it. There will be plenty of spikes when school opens up bit also remember testing is at an all time high. The more testing is done the more cases will come to light. But still again 80% of people will be completely fine or show mild symptoms.

Your very balanced view is exactly what's needed. Far to many people are at extremes of either 'we are all going to die' or 'everything is fine, what's the problem'

I'm trying to remain in the middle of all that and make sensible choices!

Lunar Every day I check the figures, then check what a couple of listened to professors say ( one of them forced the PHE review) he is from Oxford Uni and the director of CEBM the U.K. no 1 leading evidence lead research in all things medical.

My dd2 suffers with her chest, if there is a chest infection to be caught - she catches it. I took my kids out of school two weeks early when the first kids came back from skiing as one of them was my kids school. So if I get a sniff that it’s all going west again the kids will be pulled straight away.

The virus is still out there we just have to keep on being cautious and not panic

Bloody ridiculous, so few cases and bloody lockdown in areas not affected.
Well, we are going to do as we please tbh, pubs are open, schools are opening, I'm damned if I'm staying in.

In Manchester some of the university students are returning, the private flats are often rented from July or earlier.
If theres no jobs at home in the usual student casual work in bars etc then from their point of view why not.
Population increasing in certain areas and many not particularly bothered about distancing and mask wearing may cause a spike before schools return.

Hello everyone. I think I have met a few of you before. I'm sorry there are so many cases in Manchester. I don't know if it helps at all but if you do like to follow the data at local level I launched a new coronavirus data service last week.

I had gotten totally fed up with the media. I can get the national picture in the national news but I want to know the risk where I work and where I live and where my elderly mum in law lives.

www.covidmessenger.com

I send a summary of whats happening in your local council area straight to your inbox each morning - number of new cases, whether cases rising/falling etc.

It's free - I was going to charge people £1/month to pay for the server costs etc but the thought that someone who wanted the information but couldn't afford it felt so horribly wrong to me.

So I'm paying for it all myself and hoping to get local companies to sponsor us to keep it going.

It has been sooo much work, I'm totally shattered, but I'm really proud of it and i feel its really worthwhile.

Anyone can register for any council in England at www.covidmessenger.com

I have been watching the situation in Manchester with great unease. I hope everyone is safe and well. I will try and post a few charts although when I tried to last week it didnt work for some reason.

So here are some charts - Oldham & Manchester. I do hope for anyone on the ground that there has been good health/govt support because they have been growing for a quite some time. It's really troubling. I hope you and all your loved ones are all safe.

If anyone wants me to post a chart for another district council just shout.

@Littleowl Please can you post Tameside thank you

@littleowl1

So here are some charts - Oldham & Manchester. I do hope for anyone on the ground that there has been good health/govt support because they have been growing for a quite some time. It's really troubling. I hope you and all your loved ones are all safe.

If anyone wants me to post a chart for another district council just shout.

The language your using right now has totally put me off tbh.

Concerned/troubling/hope you and your family are safe and well.

It puts the fear of death in to people and we have to move away from that. Your language is not balanced at all. Your quoting PHE data which has been axed.

I’d rather follow established professors in Oxford who are in the cogs of it tbh.

Deaths are now at an all time low. They are not rising.

I’d also like to add respiratory deaths are at a ten year all time low! Silverlining and all that...

It seems to be bigger private gatherings that are causing the issue so closing pubs and restaurants isn't going to solve that, I dont think school opening will be delayed. More enforcement and bigger fines or even convictions may be only way to deter the those wanting to continue to meet up in larger groups. I feel sorry for GMP for having to deal with this, from local news it seems they were very busy this weekend breaking up parties and mass gatherings.

They won't keep the schools closed. It's so sad because Manchester was doing quite well all along this nightmare until now.